Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ice1972]

The psych ward is where we will live out our 20-21 season until wiz Inauguration Day on May 1.....it’s a long wait....you all deserve it...fml

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro looks like decent amount of rain inside 495.

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/28/2021 at 6:29 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro looks like decent amount of rain inside 495.

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Bad H5 low placement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2021 at 6:31 AM, Henry's Weather said:

Bad H5 low placement.

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I'm literally done with this season if that works out....brutal run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully EPS still looks good.

[Henry's Weather]

Let NYC people get excited before the inevitable progressive trend at the end....I hope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro has that relative lull around Kev's area, as the N stream takes over....don't mind seeing it.

[RDRY]

The absence of a high to the northwest of the system allows the CCB to fan out north and west instead of pivoting, followed by the dry slot. Not a classic set-up at all.

[TheSnowman]

  On 1/28/2021 at 5:59 AM, Henry's Weather said:

BOX disco

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They ACTUALLY Mention "Winter Fans"????  Do they ever Actually Do this in an Official Statement??  

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/28/2021 at 6:51 AM, TheSnowman said:

They ACTUALLY Mention "Winter Fans"????  Do they ever Actually Do this in an Official Statement??  

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Apparently

[Henry's Weather]

Heh, some weenie CANSIPS maps incoming:

 

[ineedsnow]

These runs look like the CTRV gets shadowed like crazy.. 

[codfishsnowman]

  On 1/28/2021 at 4:46 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was fine with today's event...only had 3", while many had 5-6"....but I think alot of people would be irritated with 8", while 20 mi south had 20". And of those who deny it, 80% are lying.

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Exactly!!! Years ago some of us were crucified for feeling that way. I just don't care as much anymore. So much can go wrong here.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2021 at 6:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro has that relative lull around Kev's area, as the N stream takes over....don't mind seeing it.

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Monday-Tuesday...

The Pacific system arrives in the Eastern USA, generating a coastal
storm along the Carolina coast. GFS is faster, the ECMWF is slower.
Both bring plenty of precip to Srn New England, just a little
different on timing. As with the Sunday skies, and based on the
stronger amplitude aloft, we favored a stronger blend of the NBM
with slower guidance. Both camps of models bring roughly 1-2 inches
of water to the region, with snow over interior sections while the
coastal plain converts to rain Monday afternoon...then mixes with
snow Monday night and Tuesday. Interesting to see IVT guidance
clearly showing the moisture feeding in from an atmospheric river
from the southern Gulf of Mexico and waters east of Florida.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

‘Slugs go tucky tucky’:

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I have no idea why the Bermuda triangle sucked in so many members almost everything is w or nw of the mean:

[MJO812]

Crush job got eastern SNE 

 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/28/2021 at 9:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I have no idea why the Bermuda triangle sucked in so many members almost everything is w or nw of the mean:

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There is always some LP on the trailing cold front.  Getting rid of them yields this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That’s what I thought because the individual members didn’t have anything that far se. How do I get rid of those lows on WB?

[Ginx snewx]

Juicy Lucy slow mover on EPS.  I made a GIF to Track the 850 low.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/28/2021 at 10:33 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s what I thought because the individual members didn’t have anything that far se. How do I get rid of those lows on WB?

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No idea I don't subscribe 

[Ginx snewx]

I would take the GFS for a thousand Alex

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

CMC ens look great for practically everyone, they’re a bit stronger then the EPS for sw zones but they have the same sw to ne tilt for the region getting more folks involved up north while se zones have changeover issues. GEFS is flatter so it’s better for se at the hands of NNE.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/28/2021 at 10:58 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I would take the GFS for a thousand Alex

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Yea. Grabbing 10+ works for me. 

So many changes to come, no one should be sweating anything yet. Hopefully TBlizz wakes up a little less worrisome this morning. Good times ahead.

[alex]

  On 1/28/2021 at 10:58 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I would take the GFS for a thousand Alex

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You got it

[ariof]

  On 1/28/2021 at 10:35 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Juicy Lucy slow mover on EPS.  I made a GIF to Track the 850 low.

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You know a jucy lucy is a hamburger in Minnesota … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jucy_Lucy … not a 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/28/2021 at 12:17 PM, ariof said:

You know a jucy lucy is a hamburger in Minnesota … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jucy_Lucy … not a 

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Here too. We had them on our menu at work.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/28/2021 at 11:05 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Grabbing 10+ works for me. 

So many changes to come, no one should be sweating anything yet. Hopefully TBlizz wakes up a little less worrisome this morning. Good times ahead.

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Yes sir..I said this yesterday.  And As Ginxy said Slow mover and juicy is all we need to see at this point.  That precip distribution should smooth out too imo with moisture transport such as that too. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks like your 495 west deal. Toaster here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/28/2021 at 12:35 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro looks like your 495 west deal. Toaster here.

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Starting to get that feel