Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[dryslot]

GFS is garbage.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

SE Mass special on the gfs 

[ORH_wxman]

Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40?

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case.  The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is.  It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now.     Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump.  That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT.  That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE.  I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup  

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40?

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Based on an off hour FV3 run? What do you think 

[PhineasC]

ICON/Euro rule? European power team?

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:12 PM, Bostonseminole said:

gfs average hit for most except extreme SE and cape

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Still good for SWCT.

[Chrisrotary12]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40?

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If snow falls out of trees for 24 hours after a 24 hour storm....did it snow for 48 hours?

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:14 PM, dryslot said:

GFS is garbage.

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I'm sick of all these elongated and multiple lows this winter, with each one chasing the other's convection.   

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:22 PM, PhineasC said:

ICON/Euro rule? European power team?

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the germans are coming 

[Modfan2]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Are we thinking 48 hours of moderate to heavy snow still or maybe scale back to 40?

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Does that include the hills!

[powderfreak]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:44 PM, Modfan2 said:

Does that include the hills!

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Union and Staffordville?  Trying to think of other hill towns but coming up blank...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:19 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case.  The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is.  It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now.     Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump.  That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT.  That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE.  I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup  

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Ray just threw his phone and computer into a ditch on the highway.

[PhineasC]

The storm around the 6th (the cutter) looks better for up here than the early month storm, at least on the GFS twins.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18z icon crushes sw zones up to hr120.

[Ginx snewx]

Oh boy oh boy look what jumped up to number 1 on the analog list

[Heisy]

Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Anything but 01/15, anything.

[WeatherWilly]

cape scraper

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:01 PM, Wentzadelphia said:

Wouldn’t even bother to look at gfs until it’s under 96 hours, hell, maybe even 24 hours out lol....I can honestly say that if the GFS gave me 18 feet of snow at 120 hours out it wouldn’t even get me excited that’s how bad of a model it is. It is currently ranked below the JMA at day 5 verification. 

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Agree. We look and watch but weigh it very lightly. 

[PWMan]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:14 PM, dryslot said:

GFS is garbage.

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At least it's been consistent with the cutter that's right on its heels.

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:09 PM, PWMan said:

At least it's been consistent with the cutter that's right on its heels.

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GFS almost never fails to verify a 10 day cutter, lol.  The end of this 18z run has warm heavy spring rains to Maine.  Goodbye whatever pack is left after that cutter.

[EastonSN+]

V16

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:15 PM, EastonSN+ said:

V16

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Tossed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 10:53 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ray just threw his phone and computer into a ditch on the highway.

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I would if I thought he were right...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:15 PM, EastonSN+ said:

V16

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Let me help:

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:19 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would if I thought he were right...

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He could be. Nobody knows at this point. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:33 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Let me help:

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We’ll take our 5” and run lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:38 PM, WinterWolf said:

He could be. Nobody knows at this point. 

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I said what I THOUGHT.....

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/27/2021 at 11:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said what I THOUGHT.....

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So did I lol.