Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like generally speaking there is less resistance to cutters in December, than later in the year.

Yes....that is empirically true. A number of reasons....cryospheric maturation up north, SSTs much colder in Feb than Dec, etc.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Congrats...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah I forgot you only look out for you...I like larger regionwide impacts with me included, of course. 

I had already told you that it captured later..what more did you need to know? lol

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, they have less snow bc of the downslope on and easterly fetch.

You should know that.

With over an inch of qpf? I know you are in bed with that snow map but no way does the CRV have 7 inches with those upper levels and that thump.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had already told you that it captured later..what more did you need to know? lol

Lol fair enough. It took a step back for the region (outside of ARSATT) as a whole though. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

With over an inch of qpf? I know you are in bed with that snow map but no way does the CRV have 7 inches with those upper levels and that thump.

Dude, we are 6 days out....perhaps the model is overdoing it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

This is not the Feb thread so take your 10 day cutter talk elsewhere...we’ve got important stuff to bicker over in here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice cluster of 980s just se of ACK....

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly The CRV isn’t raining with over an inch of qpf

Can see the upslope signature from erly flow over doggie doo in your front yard. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Glad we shed the NJ coast tuckies

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can see the upslope signature from erly flow over doggie doo in your front yard. 

I cant see sh it   lol

[Damage In Tolland]

I remember there was hand wringing and consternation posts like today prior to the Morch 2013 storm .. and then most were buried in 20-28” 

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah I forgot you only look out for you...I like larger regionwide impacts with me included, of course. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can see the upslope signature from erly flow over doggie doo in your front yard. 

Can see the soaking rain from easterly flow at the mud pit your kids made today

[78Blizzard]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is way slower than the gfs

That's why it's a warmer solution.  Gives more time for the arctic air mass to depart.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Can see the soaking rain from easterly flow at the mud pit your kids made today

He smashes Bryce's bike and tosses it into the wind, and away it flies..like the movie Twister

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

MEH 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Can see the soaking rain from easterly flow at the mud pit your kids made today

No mud today. Hopefully not Monday night either.

[Typhoon Tip]

Pretty good NCEP summarization ...echoing the sensible voice(s) found in here -

Regarding the system tracking eastward from the Plains and then
redeveloping near the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast,
probabilistic winter weather guidance shows the best potential for
meaningful snow extending from the Midwest through parts of the
Ohio Valley and then from the interior Mid-Atlantic/central
Appalachians and across New England.  There is still some
uncertainty regarding the rain/snow transition zone.  Meanwhile
the potential complexity of the evolution aloft over the East
Coast further tempers confidence in specifics, especially given
how sensitive precipitation location/type/intensity will be to
important details that will likely take into the short range time
frame to resolve.  There may be a small margin for error between a
significant snowfall and a modest one.  Farther south expect the
highest rainfall totals to extend from near the east-central
Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley into North Carolina or vicinity.
Some of this activity may be moderate to heavy but its relatively
swift motion should keep rainfall totals from becoming too extreme

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember there was hand wringing and consternation posts like today prior to the Morch 2013 storm .. and then most were buried in 20-28” 

That trepidation seemed fairly warranted in my opinion. Exotic fujiwara with marginal boundary layer is not exactly a layup. We knew the potential was there for a biggie, but it seemed there was a lot that could go wrong. It did for southern RI.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Compared to 0z:

[Typhoon Tip]

Know how we know it'll rival history ?

because 3 days later it's 62 F with howling southerly gales -

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Know how we know it'll rival history ?

because 3 days later it's 62 F with howling southerly gales -

 

Sums this winter up perfectly...the couple of times you due hook up with a hot chick, there is a fat thug named Bruno in the alley waiting to have his way with you...

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sums this winter up perfectly...the couple of times you due hook up with a hot chick, there is a fat thug named Bruno in the alley waiting to have his way with you...

heh...and it helps if said 'hot chick' wasn't the prison yard princess in a blonde wig to begin with  -

[PhineasC]

47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Better get this one to produce the next one wants to go NE thru MI

Already looks better than Grinch here with 240 hours to go. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's like ...this is the antithesis of the snow retention year -

watch ... we'll end up with 80 to 100 inches and no one will be able to honestly report a pack on the ground more than 10 % of the time

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That's why it's a warmer solution.  Gives more time for the arctic air mass to depart.

As well as the block.

[Cold Miser]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like ...this is the antithesis of the snow retention year -

watch ... we'll end up with 80 to 100 inches and no one will be able to honestly report a pack on the ground more than 10 % of the time

lock it in.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Don’t focus on your Bruno fetish just yet. Stick the heterosexual fornication for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's like ...this is the antithesis of the snow retention year -

watch ... we'll end up with 80 to 100 inches and no one will be able to honestly report a pack on the ground more than 10 % of the time

Almost like 2004-2005. I'd take it...