Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought the eps took a step back fwiw. 

It took a step east, and later w the capture...sound familiar? (Runs)

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully it's like the mid Feb '96 event. 6" to slot while Albany gets over a foot. 

[Henry's Weather]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure ... it could get all proper/traditionally leading indicator - like, but...I still believe this has more bent toward an unusual aspect, where the perennial North American pattern ( not to be confused with the PNA ) is - for whatever reason - bursting a western height eruption.  That's not really PNA proper feed in...but it is what it is...

The problem with the PNAP is that wave space terminates roughly... Ohioness in longitude...  

Meanwhile, the 90 to 60W is getting abandoned by the crumbling -NAO, western limbed blocking... That leaves a null region in normal progression ( transiently..) ... So whatever times in there gets caught in amber ... but that's getting speculative -

The short answer is that it "looks" more proper than it is... This thing's hiding its secrets -  I call those "super synoptic," but it's just meaning that they synergistic and not observable, but they feed-back on forcing things once they emerge.  Tough not to believe in the cosmic dildo but that's a digression for another paranoia... LOL

im trying to understand... so the shortwave itself, in accordance to the m.o. of this year, kind of "maxes" itself in OHV, but this PNAP and this decaying NAO regime throws the remnants and some other s/ws, such as one that might dive down out of Manitoba or Ontario, all together in this 'Legrange space'? So basically its a stalled diarrhea vorticity mess potent enough to deliver a storm on its own, but the omega block allows for the collocation of this mess with a diving s/w, and who knows what happens?

How I'm seeing what you're describing is that this is like the mid-December event, but with an enhanced western ridge and a stronger block, so basically, shoving all this vorticity together and hoping something sticks. Off base?

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Better get this one to produce the next one wants to go NE thru MI

Mentioned that this morning and no one answered. Whatever we get Monday is wiped out by the Xmas Redux screamer day10. We’ll need help from the block to trend that east 

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Mentioned that this morning and no one answered. Whatever we get Monday is wiped out by the Xmas Redux screamer day10. We’ll need help from the block to trend that east 

The EPS did look better with it today though, Has it further east.

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another 3' from BGM to DEND. 

DEND airport?

[CoastalWx]

Gone LOL.

 

 

 

[weathafella]

3 day deep snow followed by grinch level melt?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Gone LOL.

 

 

 

A pimple off the PV.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... honestly, for 'big storm enthusiasts' this is on hold pending -

This run strikes me as the same thing ... it's more of a 2.5 day placeholder event for having a huge numerical potential in the box roughly bounded by 60-90W by 35-50N ... 

We could have a more important S/W take command early ... mid .. or late in that time span and then we end up with the decadal faster flow storm in lieu of this weird 2 days moderate pub crawl.

Best to go with moderate snow over an usually longer period ...type of thing

I just wonder if the EPS mean does the same thing and out-bids it's own captain - like the 0z run 

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

3 day deep snow followed by grinch level melt?

Winters remembers Decembers?

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It took a step east, and later w the capture...sound familiar? (Runs)

Doesn’t look like that changed at all...just less dynamics on the mean compared to 0z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That EPS is perfect.

[Bostonseminole]

Folks can we enjoy this one first?? lol.. I'm leaning towards 10-12" nothing epic.. waiting for NAM to be in range to adjust

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Doesn’t look like that changed at all...just less dynamics on the mean compared to 0z.

It does to me.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does to me.

0z looks better lol. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Nothing wrong with a solid 12-16 hour thump followed by 24 hours of mood flakes and drizzle.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A pimple off the PV.

It works for many, but just funny how that went away. I had know idea until I looked at 850 temps for the first time is was like WTF?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0z looks better lol. 

Exactly my point...better for you.

I'd take 12z.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

3 day deep snow followed by grinch level melt?

There's some surface CAD in front of that system, so it's unlikely to be like the Xmas storm. I suppose there's always a chanc,e but that one was pretty unique in how unimpeded it was.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Folks can we enjoy this one first?? lol.. I'm leaning towards 10-12" nothing epic.. waiting for NAM to be in range to adjust

We are always looking ahead and worrying. Fortunately there’s time to save pack 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Whatever though, it’s meaningless...we can debate those sensitive details in a few days. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Doesn’t look like that changed at all...just less dynamics on the mean compared to 0z.

It was tucked so probably warmer where it has less snow,.

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly The CRV isn’t raining with over an inch of qpf

[CoastalWx]

I'd take a 12 hr thump. Of course I would rather no ptype issues, but I am honestly exhausted by this winter and long past the hope of wanting historic. At this point, advisory deals are nice.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly my point...better for you.

I'd take 12z.

Ah I forgot you only look out for you...I like larger regionwide impacts with me included, of course. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's some surface CAD in front of that system, so it's unlikely to be like the Xmas storm. I suppose there's always a chanc,e but that one was pretty unique in how unimpeded it was.

I feel like generally speaking there is less resistance to cutters in December, than later in the year.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It works for many, but just funny how that went away. I had know idea until I looked at 850 temps for the first time is was like WTF?

Quick arctic shot then poof.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Exactly The CRV isn’t raining with over an inch of qpf

No, they have less snow bc of the down slope on an easterly fetch.

You should know that.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's some surface CAD in front of that system, so it's unlikely to be like the Xmas storm. I suppose there's always a chanc,e but that one was pretty unique in how unimpeded it was.

That one actually looks like it could go under here in time.