Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[Baroclinic Zone]

Back to your regularly scheduled model runs.  GFS coming in.  Heights higher ahead of system and trough looks sharper thru 1026hr.

[dryslot]

Looks to be a couple tics west of the 06z run.

[TalcottWx]

I am not sure if this analogy even makes sense. But it does in my warped brain. 

Weather is a lot like making a good fire in some ways. Like a roaring dynasty fire. You need to place the logs the right way, make sure they aren't a little wet etc. You can get a fire really going with the right ingredients, but no matter what the fire dies down without more fuel or ingredients. 

This is sort of the way I think about 'days and days of snow'. It's just not going to happen 99.99% of the time. This is where Ray thinks it's gonna blow the load SW. It's going to burn itself out and roar down there and then leave us with an occluded mess. We don't have the logs the fire by the time it gets here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i love this place

We just try to create knowledgeable discussion 

[CoastalWx]

Nice HP to the north on the GFS. I don't get how the GFS loves to have narrow QPF swaths with coastals sometimes. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Looks to be a couple tics west of the 06z run.

Broader trough may swing this out further East before capture, which would likely help coastal areas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I am not sure if this analogy even makes sense. But it does in my warped brain. 

Weather is a lot like making a good fire in some ways. Like a roaring dynasty fire. You need to place the logs the right way, make sure they aren't a little wet etc. You can get a fire really going with the right ingredients, but no matter what the fire dies down without more fuel or ingredients. 

This is sort of the way I think about 'days and days of snow'. It's just not going to happen 99.99% of the time. This is where Ray thinks it's gonna blow the load SW. It's going to burn itself out and roar down there and then leave us with an occluded mess. 

The wild card is that deep layer easterly fetch....you don't need insane mid level dynamics....Dec 1992 tucked wayyyyy in near LI, occluded, and still kicked back 3-4" of QPF.

[Baroclinic Zone]

That's a nice look at 120hr.

[dryslot]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Broader trough may swing this out further East before capture, which would likely help coastal areas.

May end up looking the same as the 06z run in the end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

May end up looking the same as the 06z run in the end.

That is why I don't usually do PBP...it changes and trends reverse.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

May end up looking the same as the 06z run in the end.

Intensifies further offshore.  Much nicer look down this way,.

[NeonPeon]

It's the hope that kills you.  I'd take this run.

[CoastalWx]

Almost looks like GFS shows convection robbing some moisture. How don't understand how it shows less QPF as a secondary develops.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is why I don't usually do PBP...it changes and trends reverse.

Not so much it's reverse per say, It just started out more tucked down in the MA and then lifts NE from there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not so much it's reverse per say, It just started out more tucked down in the MA and then lifts NE from there.

Reverse in relation to how it compares to previous runs.

[dryslot]

GFS wants to chase that convective blob offshore that pulls this more east before the pivot back NW some.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Reverse in relation to how it compares to previous runs.

Ends up similar but different.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

GFS wants to chase that convective blob offshore that pulls this more east before the pivot back NW some.

I wouldn't worry about shit like that right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. less impressive than 06z.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't worry about shit like that right now.

I'm not even worried about the GFS, It sucks with these, It will catch on Monday.

[Bostonseminole]

gfs being gfs, 

[MJO812]

Ukie looks just west of the benchmark

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't worry about shit like that right now.

Can't parse that out yet, agreed.  I'm looking at the nuances of 5h.  I liked the look of it.  Wasn't that much different then 06z.

[Hoth]

GFS sucks with nor'easters. Made Feb '13 look like a pusillanimous POS right up until go-time.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie looks just west of the benchmark

How is that out already?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

How is that out already?

Straight outta rectum spectrum.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

How is that out already?

He uses those awful sideways maps from France or some random european country.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nice gfs run, qpf be dammed. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I sign off on that GFS evolution. ICON is fugly

[40/70 Benchmark]

Assuming we do get that deep layer E fetch.....I not recall any big scew zones over E NE, with the exception of RI in March 2013. Still not sure what that was all about, but I doubt a recurrence. That is a high-confidence dump over a large area, precip type issues not withstanding.