Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:30 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just saying...DIT is not making ish up. 

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Yes he is.

Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:31 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Is it moderate to heavy snow for 48 hours?

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No but we know Kev likes mood flakes lingering around his undies for as long as possible so it still counts even if its flurries. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:31 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It most likely won’t happen but to say nothing shows it is also misleading. 

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  On 1/27/2021 at 3:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes he is.

Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

 

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[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:32 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No but we know Kev likes mood flakes lingering around his undies for as long as possible so it still counts even if its flurries. 

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Right, but when we are getting to active times there are more novice posters around who will take it seriously...not a big deal for us, but...

[dryslot]

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:24 PM, ORH_wxman said:

No it doesn't

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Why doesn’t it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Look like its getting captured off of NJ, right now....plenty of time to trend that a little further out towards the cape.

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its too warm. 

No way I get like 2" of snow with that antecdent airmass in early Feb.

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ICON on SV has limited maps, I cant see thermals only can go by a clown map.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes he is.

Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

 

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No I’m not. Anything is on the table with this behemoth . We are allowed to discuss anything we want 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:38 PM, dryslot said:

ICON on SV has limited maps, I cant see thermals only can go by a clown map.

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Its bad....even the weenie Weatherbell maps give Boston 1.7", with 4" out to 495. I can confidently say that isn't happening with that track.

[PhineasC]

ICON just told us to get tucked. Hot run, but dumb model, unfortunately. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:38 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

No I’m not. Anything is on the table with this behemoth . We are allowed to discuss anything we want 

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Discuss away the hypothetical plausibility of something that is exceedingly rare in coastal storms, and is supported by no guidance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:41 PM, PhineasC said:

ICON just told us to get tucked. Hot run, but dumb model, unfortunately. 

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I think there is a decent chance of this getting near the cape....

[PhineasC]

“Days and days of snow” from a coastal is the same kind of mythical event as “the backlash snows will deliver” down in MD at least. Basically never happens but the models love to show it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Discuss away the hypothetical plausibility of something that is exceedingly rare in coastal storm, and is supported by no guidance.

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Other than op Euro and Ukie. everything shows 24-48 hours of mod to heavy snow 

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:41 PM, PhineasC said:

ICON just told us to get tucked. Hot run, but dumb model, unfortunately. 

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I don't even usually mention it or have much use for it, But i guess if your going to talk about the GGEM, Throw it in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than op Euro and Ukie. everything shows 24-48 hours of mod to heavy snow 

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24 hours...okay.

Post the support for 48 hours of mod to heavy snow...that should be widespread 24"+ relatively evenly distributed over the course of 2 days.

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there is a decent chance of this getting near the cape....

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Some of these scenarios has the cutoff low around ACK so yeah but i think its way to early to figure that out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This has a chance to be 48 hours of S to S+

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Shifting of the goal posts....

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than op Euro and Ukie. everything shows 24-48 hours of mod to heavy snow 

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[PhineasC]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:46 PM, dryslot said:

I don't even usually mention it or have much use for it, But i guess if your going to talk about the GGEM, Throw it in.

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Probably no worse than the GGEM. Just another data point, and every model has its moment where it finds the nut first. 

[TalcottWx]

If it's tucky tucky, that's fine. Phin will host us all in Randolph it's not a big deal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Shifting of the goal posts....

 

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48 hours is probably the top end , but within the spectrum of real possibilities 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

48 hours is probably the top end , but within the spectrum of real possibilities 

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That is fine, but its a stretch if nothing shows that.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:49 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

48 hours is probably the top end , but within the spectrum of real possibilities 

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A lot of these spectrums seemed pulled out of your rectum.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

A lot of these spectrums seemed pulled out of your rectum.

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Rectum Spectrum  

[dryslot]

lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least with a hugger, there is less likely to be a subby hole west of the CF with that deep easterly fetch...may not even need the deformation, which would be way back west.

[The 4 Seasons]

i love this place

[dryslot]

Sounds like some are having cranial rectosis issues.

[dryslot]

  On 1/27/2021 at 3:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At least with a hugger, there is less likely to be a subby hole west of the CF with that deep easterly fetch...may not even need the deformation, which would be way back west.

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Better chance of having something with a hugger then having a low east of georges bank and have no worries about subby zones.