Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[SJonesWX]

31 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I hope the low rides directly over SE Mass and deep into the Gulf of Maine where it stalls for 2 days.

SE Mass could use the rain. Reservoirs and lakes are still low, right?

once the snow covering the mulch beds melt away, the reservoirs should fill right up.

[SouthCoastMA]

I heard these were in nowadays. Let's

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This looks nearly as good as can be at this point, but my guard will be up for the rug to be pulled up until I breech the pack with yard stick in hand. I know why the usual fast flow of nina that often plagues our chances for big events may not be applicable in this case, but I'll still believe it when I see it. No issue with a 6-12", 8-14" type deal, but this ceiling potential is always hard to attain, anyway, NVM during a mod la nina.

Yeah... despite my own arty rhetoric at times ( ..heh ) ...I'm still of the school for a long-duration moderate snow, that by virtue of said duration, ...attains a more robust if not major impact from interior mid Atlantic up to Maine as a base-line risk assessment.  It's got modulation room for more and less.. 

K.U.... ?  Yup

Historic ?    Heh, I'd shelve that for now

I just elaborated my various ensemble mean hot-takes ( lol. ...) but, I also modulate aspects based upon experience and book-smarts combined... I do think this can evolve- not impossible in other words - toward a historic deal, but there's just as much possibility for something durational/less...etc... 

I believe a substantive system is higher likelihood.   And we eye-candy runs for muse until D4.5 ... The other aspect to bring up is that... the EPS ( for example...) and the GEFs are 2-day onslaughts...so, the front side of this may come into the visible range of improving certitude before the ass end of it...

One thing I am noticing that is a interesting, and is true in both the GEFs and EPS ( pretty remarkable micro-management at this range frankly, too - ) is that they have a kind 'impact pulsation' episodes in two - owing to the fact that there is 2ndary mid troposphere wave mechanics bottoming out and helping back-develop the systemic envelopment of the cyclone - noisy fascination -

[dendrite]

It’s the season of go big or go home up here. So I’m going with 1-2” or 1-2’. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I'd roll the dice with a GFS solution, down here. 

 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

PF wants the low to ride up over Randolph. LOL

Just bustin ya, Lol true...

[dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

PF wants the low to ride up over Randolph. LOL

PWM is his favored track.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, John...those 36-48 hr depictions never work out. The bulk of this impact should be within a 24 hr period, and anything beyond is nuisance variety.

Heh... you know ?  - I mean this isn't Iceland, nor is this an Icelandic Low redux

hahaha

[TalcottWx]

Tucky tucky

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Tucky tucky on wknds gets me lucky lucky

Huh?

[Damage In Tolland]

This has a chance to be 48 hours of S to S+

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This has a chance to be 48 hours of S to S+

No it doesn't

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

This has a chance to be 48 hours of S to S+

24-48" incoming.  Can always adjust up.

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m definitely concerned about a tuck solution. Some people don’t want to talk about it... but it’s definitely possible.

Phinn and i can lead the charge on it, When should we start?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No it doesn't

I'm surprised that you of all people took the bait lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Phinn and i can lead the charge on it, When should we start?

Tuesday night-

[Bostonseminole]

icon tucky?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Icon doubling down from 0z.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm surprised that you of all people took the bait lol

I almost just deleted it but decided to respond so that normal lurkers understand that really isn't going to happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

icon tucky?

Bit closer to ACK and weaker.

[dryslot]

SE areas would need flood watches on the ICON.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I mean...cmc has it snowing for 48hrs tbh. Just saying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not a good run for E MA, but I think its too warm with that antecedent airmass.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I mean...cmc has it snowing for 48hrs tbh. Just saying.

And.....?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

SE areas would need flood watches on the ICON.

Its too warm. 

No way I get like 2" of snow with that antecdent airmass in early Feb.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Phinn and i can lead the charge on it, When should we start?

Go tuck yourself, and me too. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

And.....?

Just saying...DIT is not making ish up. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I mean...cmc has it snowing for 48hrs tbh. Just saying.

Is it moderate to heavy snow for 48 hours?

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its too warm. 

No way I get like 2" of snow with that antecdent airmass in early Feb.

ICON thermals are always goofy at range. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It most likely won’t happen but to say nothing shows it is also misleading.