Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

06z Gefs shifted SE and more spread at d5 then 0z. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I deserve a few buns for this.....haven't compared charts, but this reminds me of a colder version of Dec 1992. Obviously not expecting 4" of QPF or near record coastal flooding, but wow...

I mentioned this a couple pages back, nice easterly flow on EPS. We will know more by Friday.  

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

06z Gefs shifted SE and more spread at d5 then 0z. 

We bang

[UnitedWx]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Snowy period has begun.  Next week looks game on for the interior. 

And then rain late in the week..hopefully that evolves in the coming days!

[Cold Miser]

Whatever weather service we use here in town they are giving this the "not probable" for a plowable event.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Whatever weather service we use here in town they are giving this the "not probable" for a plowable event.

Why? ENS hittin it hard. That’s all you need to see.

[dryslot]

We watch, We wait, Get it inside 84hrs and we will see where its heading.

[CoastalWx]

6Z EPS still solid IMO.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6Z EPS still solid IMO.

And long duration

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Eps looks real tasty again. Seems like the big feature to watch is the ull from Froday that dives se over the cape and lifts out...

[Cold Miser]

20 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Why? ENS hittin it hard. That’s all you need to see.

I have no idea.  I was kind of surprised. I will have to see what the weather service is that we use here. I don't get involved with the plowing side of public works, but I know that upper management has a few services that they  depend on for weather advice.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Big cluster N of the mean and tucked. Ie...capture/stall. Wow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't have much more that I add to what's already been discussed.  I don't see any glaring flags in overnight model guidance to sway from storm along the eastern seaboard early next week.  Stick to the Ensembles and geek out over individual runs.  This has potential to be memorable storm for quite a large population.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big cluster N of the mean and tucked. Ie...capture/stall. Wow.

Slow mover, Could be a lot of fun for some.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big cluster N of the mean and tucked. Ie...capture/stall. Wow.

Oooo... I likey, “capture & stall” haven’t heard that in a few years at least

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Storm is about to stall out and capture after this. 

[dryslot]

Most of those members are to the North of the mean too.

[ORH_wxman]

That's a lot more tucked than previous EPS runs

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Most of those members are to the North of the mean too.

Yea and if you toss the FL members, that’s bonkers. Those are not only skewing the sfc low placement but mean qpf as well. 

Holy moly....could this be the one that breaks my 10yr 16”+ drought? Probably not lol but it’s the best shot I’m gonna get.

[Damage In Tolland]

This could rival some of SNE historical biggies . All the signals are there.. stall, slowing, capture, extreme deep east inflow. Eyes wide open 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could rival some of SNE historical biggies . All the signals are there.. stall, slowing, capture, extreme deep east inflow. Eyes wide open 

Eyes wide open and belt unbuckled...

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big cluster N of the mean and tucked. Ie...capture/stall. Wow.

Wouldn't this bring rain mix issue to CT especially 84 south?

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a lot more tucked than previous EPS runs

 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could rival some of SNE historical biggies . All the signals are there.. stall, slowing, capture, extreme deep east inflow. Eyes wide open 

Slow your roll lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wouldn't this bring rain mix issue to CT especially 84 south?

Probably, but I wouldn’t sweat those details just yet. Plus, you’ve gotta play with fire to win the prize. 

[NorEastermass128]

I'm guessing any tucks would due in the coast?  Antecedent airmass is nice, so maybe some snow to start at least.

Yup, just saw Ginxy's post.  Lots of green for the coast.  Expectation is for a rainstorm (driving rainstorm at that) for here at least.  Probably inside 95.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Probably, but I wouldn’t sweat those details just yet. Plus, you’ve gotta play with fire to win the prize. 

Miller Bs like to jump east as we get closer

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Probably, but I wouldn’t sweat those details just yet. Plus, you’ve gotta play with fire to win the prize. 

still bouncing back and forth which is fine at this time frame...assume a push to the south is coming in the next 24 hours

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

That’s Dec 92 there