Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFSv16 is flawed which is why it isn't used, especially with moisture content. Its failure with the last system is a good example. Clown maps are clown maps for a reason.lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFSv16 is flawed which is why it isn't used, especially with moisture content. Its failure with the last system is a good example. Clown maps are clown maps for a reason.Incorrect. Like @Chicago Storm wrote, the upgrade is scheduled to come next month. Haven't seen any emails to the contrary. May as well get used to what's likely to be the operational GFS next month. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z looks to be a solid hit around southern MI and a general spread the wealth for many. Wonder if the models will play catch up like the last storm.. i.e. dry air aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: your snow climo sucks in general further south. . Beavis? That you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Beavis? That you? can't be. i'm not complaining about lack of snow, snow cover or cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Relative to climo, there is probably nobody in this thread who can beat my futility other than RogueWaves. Biggest snow here this season is just a hair over 2". I think this storm will beat it, and if it doesn't, it will be very tempting to throw in the towel on this winter lol As Rodney Dangerfield would've said "My one minute of Amwx fame...for all the wrong reasons" 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Beavis? That you? I infiltrated Chicago Storm's mind when he moved to Naperville. Sneak attack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Naperville huh, sounds right 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: GHD 3.0 I would love for this to be right but I have big time doubts that it is anywhere close to this. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Definitely like where I'm sitting even though there's a ways to go. This time next week I'll be out back building igloos. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I dont like that new gfs model but who knows. It could be right. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Naperville huh, sounds right. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would love for this to be right but I have big time doubts that it is anywhere close to this. Good vibes only, stebo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Good vibes only, stebo I know I know, but that version of the GFS is sus as can be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 If you only looked at the surface low and the thicknesses in the Plains, you may be thinking oh no, big cutter coming with warm air flooding way north. Really get bailed out by what's going on up north in Canada. Unfortunately it still won't be enough for some areas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: If you only looked at the surface low and the thicknesses in the Plains, you may be thinking oh no, big cutter coming with warm air flooding way north. Really get bailed out by what's going on up north in Canada. Unfortunately it still won't be enough for some areas. Isn't that the truth! So is the block that sheared the last storm, the same block that keeps this low from cutting west? A quick aside, I'm using the term block because it was tossed about a lot the past few days. It may not be the correct terminology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 yeah, you all better thank the west based -NAO for salvaging the second half of January into a productive stretch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z Euro and still snowing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . Getting paid T. Skilling money 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, madwx said: yeah, you all better thank the west based -NAO for salvaging the second half of January into a productive stretch Blessing and a curse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: I know I know, but that version of the GFS is sus as can be. yeah, v16 was weirdly bullish for southern mi for a while leading up to the last event. maybe im being a prisoner of the moment but i dont really have much faith in these runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z Euro and still snowingWish pivotal had the 06z/18z runs to compare their Kuchera output run to run. Anyway, here's the 10:1 snow map from WxBell, just to demonstrate it's still a really nice look. 18z run was a hair north of the 12z run (tracked to north of STL while 12z roughly got to latitude of STL then faded east) and got that more west to east orientation of the precip/snow swath. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Wish pivotal had the 06z/18z runs to compare their Kuchera output run to run. Anyway, here's the 10:1 snow map from WxBell, just to demonstrate it's still a really nice look. 18z run was a hair north of the 12z run (tracked to north of STL while 12z roughly got to latitude of STL then faded east) and got that more west to east orientation of the precip/snow swath. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Overall pretty decent run to run consistency with minimal track changes. It definitely bumped north on sfc low track. Hoping those north bumps stop because I'm dangerously close to sharp southern cut off. Euro has a good front end thump for a good chunk of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I’m feelin a Peoria jackpot 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z EPS essentially unchanged from the 12z run, noise level stuff. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, tuanis said: I’m feelin a Peoria jackpot Haha. I wish. That's a rare feat. I will definitely be close to the mixing line and anticipate a change to a mix or rain for a bit but how long I'm not sure. Hoping I can at least get a good front end thump from the WAA wing. That will probably have more intense rates than the deformation band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Since you all are referring to the 18z Euro, here is the 18z GFS from earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just coming on shore tonight isn’t it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Just coming on shore tonight isn’t it. Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I can’t tell if I’m in denial or just tired 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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