A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 the look the para GFS is selling for sat evening is so nice, needs to verify 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yeah, I'm not going to waste much time on this one. Can already see where this one is going to go. This morning's LOT AFD says all snow I-80 and north. So...south of I-80... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 idk man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Meh. At this range, I'd only feel somewhat comfortable if the models were showing a STL/PAH/etc hit. First (maybe final) call... DSM: 8 MSP: 6 CR: 11.94 cyclone: 12 alek: 14 Hoosier: 9.9 SE MI: 10.0 Bowme: 10.0 MSN: 8.0 1 1 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 lol we're going 3 day calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, RyanDe680 said: lol we're going 3 day calls u new? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Meh. At this range, I'd only feel somewhat comfortable if the models were showing a STL/PAH/etc hit. First (maybe final) call... You showing no love for those south. This is our storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Feel this one is a candidate to come back north some. Probably still a graze job for YYZ but those further to SW on the northern edge should stay tuned. Could get thumped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: For those keeping score, on the 00z ensembles, the EPS and GEPS (Canadian) shifted north from their respective previous runs, while the GEFS shifted south. The GEFS has been the farthest north guidance, so it shifting south isn't surprising. Our AFD makes note of this, but the general ensemble mean and member agreement is noteworthy at this lead time. I think the 25th-26th system had more spread than this at a shorter lead time. It goes without saying that having such solid consensus this far out doesn't guarantee anything. I'm wondering if the stability of the Hudson Bay block is helping with more predictability in this case. Also seems a bit different than what just occurred in that the block forms an omega like depiction with a northern stream lobe off to its west and the deep trough to the east. In this way the block serves as a road block from a hard cut but does not appear on the ens mean h5 depiction to be imparting a compressive shearing mechanism to the parent wave. It's an interesting but solid setup for areas that have missed out to hopefully score and those of us in the middle to also get in on the fun. The individual EPS members strongly point toward a pretty large swath of accumulating snow with the typical banding jackpot zones depending on exact track. This suggests that areas that miss out on max amounts could still get several inches. Lots of time to sort all the details out, so these are items I'm noticing thus far on the snow side of things. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Excellent analysis as always. What's your take on GFS thermals? It's low track seems pretty close to have models but has rain so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Seems like this event will be one of those where returns look great to the southwest and we think models will have underdone it on QPF but then it just fizzles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Feel this one is a candidate to come back north some. Probably still a graze job for YYZ but those further to SW on the northern edge should stay tuned. Could get thumped. It always weirds me out a little bit to see Canadians posting about storms that affect southern WI/northern IL (especially in the context of them being at risk for a rainer) because I think of Canada as this frigid place waaaaay far away to the north. I need to remember places like Windsor, London, Kitchener and Toronto are roughly on my latitude. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Seems like this event will be one of those where returns look great to the southwest and we think models will have underdone it on QPF but then it just fizzles. recency bias look at 850/700 is good here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: recency bias look at 850/700 is good here Not bad. Guess just worried about the placement of the highest to the east and models underdoing dry air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: It always weirds me out a little bit to see Canadians posting about storms that affect southern WI/northern IL (especially in the context of them being at risk for a rainer) because I think of Canada as this frigid place waaaaay far away to the north. I need to remember places like Windsor, London, Kitchener and Toronto are roughly on my latitude. Same latitude as MKE with probably 90% less chance of seeing a >6" storm in October or April. put that in your pipe and smoke it. Wouldn't have it any other way. Rest of the country summers too short and winters too cold. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 36 minutes ago, mimillman said: Not bad. Guess just worried about the placement of the highest to the east and models underdoing dry air aloft. the lee cyclogenesis over co and panhandle slp track really is one of the classic chicago tracks for a reason, it's a good look and the GEFS clustering for that track is excellent likely due in part to the block as mentioned in ricky's post seeing less fail modes in play 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Miss south for me. I’ll enjoy my flurries and snow showers over the weekend and in the meantime keep lurking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the lee cyclogenesis over co and panhandle slp track really is one of the classic chicago tracks for a reason, it's a good look and the GEFS clustering for that track is excellent likely due in part to the block as mentioned in ricky's post seeing less fail modes in play Good track .. wish it would cut and really ramp up on the backside 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Good track .. wish it would cut and really ramp up on the backside slp gets the squeeze from the block no matter how this plays out so raging backside defo with a cutter isn't in the cards primary work gonna be done by strong advection snows with exceptionally high pwats it's possible backside snows associated with ull passing overhead are a bit better than modeled but that won't be the show 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: the lee cyclogenesis over co and panhandle slp track really is one of the classic chicago tracks for a reason, it's a good look and the GEFS clustering for that track is excellent likely due in part to the block as mentioned in ricky's post seeing less fail modes in play I don't disagree with the track, it's more a concern of dry air aloft with those highs not far east. It's just a matter of how far east can we get before we start to see those effects. Those details I expect will be ironed out over the next couple days and would not trust models to have a good handle on that yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: u new? we just never learn 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 on that note.. Low is deeper... Hopefully digs deeper to pull gulf moisture. Sampling tonight no? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 on that note.. Low is deeper... Hopefully digs deeper to pull gulf moisture. Sampling tonight no?What will end up being the block is already sampled fairly well, and the main wave will be tomorrow night/Friday morning. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Not surprising, but the NAM is a bit more amped and north in its long range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This is looking good for Iowa. The one thing keeping this good storm from being an epic storm is the quick decay of the snow intensity north/northwest of the low following the initial heavy WAA burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GGEM should be as well given RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 lock the 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 hype train already left the station 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: slp gets the squeeze from the block no matter how this plays out so raging backside defo with a cutter isn't in the cards primary work gonna be done by strong advection snows with exceptionally high pwats it's possible backside snows associated with ull passing overhead are a bit better than modeled but that won't be the show Agree with this, which, if it does actually happen, will make for some fantastic rates over a ~6 hour period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: hype train already left the station 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 hours ago, Spartman said: Very impressive on the 00z GDPS. Not as much on the UK, though. According to Joe Bastardi, it looks like an upcoming Snowmeggedon scenario. You should start posting Joe bastardi tweets side-by-side with bam wx tweets. It would be like a virtual debate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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