michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Will never happen in my life time. Something like that happened in the early 1900's. I saw pics of the Railroad that takes that route from Toledo to Chicago. Actually February 1st 2015 was not far off of that scenario. Chicago- 19.3" South Bend- 15.7" Detroit- 16.7" Toledo- 12.0". I would bet money that the picture your thinking of was from March 1900. Several large snowstorms traversed the region bringing record snow depths. Feb 28/Mar 1, 1900 storm dropped 20.2" in Toledo and 14.0" in Detroit...4 days later a 2nd storm dropped 3.0" at Toledo and 16.1" at Detroit! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Living in Toledo, the most I've ever seen in 45 years was 13". The wind made a it seem like less. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 58 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: So I'm getting sleet. Better than me. I got 33 34 degree cold rain that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Living in Toledo, the most I've ever seen in 45 years was 13". The wind made a it seem like less. It does get very open down in Northwest Ohio. My absolute favorite Winter, 2013-14, when snow depths approached 2 feet in February here in the southern part of the Detroit area, there were snow drifts in rural Monroe county to the top of barns. The wind down there just gets brutal and I imagine the same was in Northwest Ohio, as the peak depth at TOL in 2014 was "only" 13". Some of the better winters for snow depth in Toledo in your time would be 19" - Jan 1978 16" - Feb 1982 15" - Feb 2015 14" - Dec 2000 13" - Feb 2014 12" - Dec 1974, Feb 1985, Jan 2009, Feb 2010, Feb 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 28 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: If this pans out like that I'm going to bang my head into every wall I can find in 24hrs. Lol. I80 south is in dire need of a good snowstorm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: If this pans out like that I'm going to bang my head into every wall I can find in 24hrs. Lol. I80 south is in dire need of a good snowstorm. Watch it pan out like that too. I swear I think Central In and Il are in a snow shield. Never seen an area have snow around them in each direction as much as our areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Watch it pan out like that too. I swear I think Central In and Il are in a snow shield. Never seen an area have snow around them in each direction as much as our areas That has definitely been the story of this winter. A very persistent storm track in all directions around us. I'm ready for tornadoes by March so these snowstorms need to start happening between now and Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'll check back when it gets in NAM range. Miss the DGEX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Three days from now... 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 You know the past 5 winters have sucked when I see one bad run and feel like jumping ship on the storm. EPS is all dry for Central OH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: That has definitely been the story of this winter. A very persistent storm track in all directions around us. I'm ready for tornadoes by March so these snowstorms need to start happening between now and Feb March is a bit early please I'll take snow up until the first week of April, hail is the only wished upon frozen precip after that. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 South trend on 12z guidance has continued on 0z guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Seems like we've kind of narrowed down a track as it comes into the OV, give or take 50-100 miles. I'd actually feel fairly confident in saying this will be the biggest synoptic snow of the season here to date. Not necessarily because I am sold on huge amounts locally, but more because the bar is that low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: South trend on 12z guidance has continued on 0z guidance. . So I shouldn't plan on 18 inches in NE IL this weekend? Ha-Ha... Someone needs to combine this forum with Draftkings and we can use betting markets to try to predict model reliability. Like Nate Silver's 538... Or better yet, we could call it the 540line or something... ;-) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: South trend on 12z guidance has continued on 0z guidance. . This is good, the more south the better at this juncture. When they start trending back north, we don't want them to end up too far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I called it earlier today. First storm missed me north so this one will probably miss me south. Lololololol. Curious to see if euro shifts south. I was on northern fringes of heaviest swath on 12z euro. Gfs definitely came south but it's thermals are trash. Anyone have 0z cmc? It got stuck loading at 24hrs on tropicaltidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I called it earlier today. First storm missed me north so this one will probably miss me south. Lololololol. Curious to see if euro shifts south. I was on northern fringes of heaviest swath on 12z euro. Gfs definitely came south but it's thermals are trash. Anyone have 0z cmc? It got stuck loading at 24hrs on tropicaltidbits. Idk... all things considered, I'd say PIA is in a decent spot. As long as you don't set expectations at a foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro is a bump north and __________ (fill in the blank) hint: starts with a d and ends in rier 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said: Euro is a bump north and __________ (fill in the blank) hint: starts with a d and ends in rier Drearier? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Drearier? You could say that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Idk... all things considered, I'd say PIA is in a decent spot. As long as you don't set expectations at a foot. If I got 6in I would be ecstatic at this point. But cue the drying trend on models. Ha. Hopefully it won't dwindle down too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 00z Euro is actually wetter than the 12z for the DVN cwa. Would be another warning criteria event for at least a portion of the cwa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: 00z Euro is actually wetter than the 12z for the DVN cwa. Would be another warning criteria event for at least a portion of the cwa. It definitely was a more spread the wealth event instead of a narrower zone of heavier snow. You're going to be in a solid ice age soon with all that snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 14 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Ive seen this one before. Models at 144 hrs give me a foot, get my hopes up, gradually let down to 3-4 inches How about down to 1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Seems like we've kind of narrowed down a track as it comes into the OV, give or take 50-100 miles. I'd actually feel fairly confident in saying this will be the biggest synoptic snow of the season here to date. Not necessarily because I am sold on huge amounts locally, but more because the bar is that low. We interrupt this broadcast.. I said that exact thing about today's storm. "How could it fail to beat 1.5??" ..FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Very impressive on the 00z GDPS. Not as much on the UK, though. According to Joe Bastardi, it looks like an upcoming Snowmeggedon scenario. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 .Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 For those keeping score, on the 00z ensembles, the EPS and GEPS (Canadian) shifted north from their respective previous runs, while the GEFS shifted south. The GEFS has been the farthest north guidance, so it shifting south isn't surprising. Our AFD makes note of this, but the general ensemble mean and member agreement is noteworthy at this lead time. I think the 25th-26th system had more spread than this at a shorter lead time. It goes without saying that having such solid consensus this far out doesn't guarantee anything. I'm wondering if the stability of the Hudson Bay block is helping with more predictability in this case. Also seems a bit different than what just occurred in that the block forms an omega like depiction with a northern stream lobe off to its west and the deep trough to the east. In this way the block serves as a road block from a hard cut but does not appear on the ens mean h5 depiction to be imparting a compressive shearing mechanism to the parent wave.It's an interesting but solid setup for areas that have missed out to hopefully score and those of us in the middle to also get in on the fun. The individual EPS members strongly point toward a pretty large swath of accumulating snow with the typical banding jackpot zones depending on exact track. This suggests that areas that miss out on max amounts could still get several inches. Lots of time to sort all the details out, so these are items I'm noticing thus far on the snow side of things. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 If a euro type solution works out I'll gladly take my chances on the northern fringe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS: Precip field hits Cleveland Cleveland: precip dies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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