Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hey HRRR, can you please fix your lake effect problem? Thanks. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Most models kicking out 0.75"-1" QPF in the Chicago metro before much lake contribution. I'll ride my 8.5". While short duration and ratios may hurt things a bit, it's clearly in reach. Also still wouldn't be surprised to see some drizzle after the main WAA dumpage moves through. Maybe even some mixing/rimed flakes at onset. Per the HRRR it doesn't look a wall of heavy snow anymore, but still ramps up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 0z HRRR, obviously discounting the overdone LE.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z HRRR, obviously discounting the overdone LE. . Still snowing a bit around Chicago at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 SREFs up to 10.5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 https://m.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/pcb.272433760908241/?photo_id=272433584241592&mds=%2Fphotos%2Fviewer%2F%3Fphotoset_token%3Dpcb.272433760908241%26photo%3D272433584241592%26profileid%3D30407707%26source%3D48%26refid%3D52%26__tn__%3DEH-R%26cached_data%3Dfalse%26ftid%3D&mdp=1&mdf=1 Skilling posting the RAP trend on FB. Pretty narrow band of heavy snow. Kinda goes along with the changes made by LOT to their snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Jim Martin said: Yep. Models look great at 10:1 but the snow will really struggle with warm surface temps. I bet the rain even creeps 20 miles north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Both NAMs just a lot drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Both NAMs just a lot drier ez toss - Alek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Yep. Models look great at 10:1 but the snow will really struggle with warm surface temps. I bet the rain even creeps 20 miles north of I-70. Good lord youre a bundle of joy for the ohio crowd lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: https://m.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/pcb.272433760908241/?photo_id=272433584241592&mds=%2Fphotos%2Fviewer%2F%3Fphotoset_token%3Dpcb.272433760908241%26photo%3D272433584241592%26profileid%3D30407707%26source%3D48%26refid%3D52%26__tn__%3DEH-R%26cached_data%3Dfalse%26ftid%3D&mdp=1&mdf=1 Skilling posting the RAP trend on FB. Pretty narrow band of heavy snow. Kinda goes along with the changes made by LOT to their snow map actually shows some crazy extreme amounts that you can pretty much discount. 6"-10" is the call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAM trending drier makes little sense looking at things. For example, PWATS are the highest on a NAM run yet, in excess of 0.80" up to DVN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, dilly84 said: Good lord youre a bundle of joy for the ohio crowd lol Haha I just have a bad feeling about this. Warm air creeping up is always a death sentence for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Both the NAMs have the changeover to snow 2 hours later. Cuts the totals even more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If mixing issues end up being an issue and we only get a few inches of snow it's only going to make the snowpack in place that much more formidable. Would prefer an all-snow 6+ incher but there is an upside to the mixing scenario at least lol. Would have loved to get in on that 2"/hr scenario the models were putting out in previous cycles. It's still possible but looking less likely for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Natester said: Both the NAMs have the changeover to snow 2 hours later. Cuts the totals even more. probably looking at a dab+. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: post a map or specifics on downtrend. Thanks. 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: If mixing issues end up being an issue and we only get a few inches of snow it's only going to make the snowpack in place that much more formidable. Would prefer an all-snow 6+ incher but there is an upside to the mixing scenario at least lol. Would have loved to get in on that 2"/hr scenario the models were putting out in previous cycles. It's still possible but looking less likely for these parts. Let me guess, that glacier won't melt until late April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Natester said: Let me guess, that glacier won't melt until late April? Ha well we ain't no stranger to a string of 60s in Feb and that would nuke it all to hell, but it would have the capability to hold on longer than a "normal" 10" snowpack lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: Ha well we ain't no stranger to a string of 60s in Feb and that would nuke it all to hell, but it would have the capability to hold on longer than a "normal" 10" snowpack lol. Ah yes, you're referring to Feb 2017, right? That was a recordbreaking stretch of warm weather with extremely rare 70s in CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Typical NAM. Lowers QPF by .4 18 hours before event. Seen it many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Baum said: Typical NAM. Lowers QPF by .4 18 hours before event. Seen it many times. you buy it or toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: you buy it or toss it? not a met. I've just seen the NAM do this before. To this point all other guidance screams this is an outlier. Plus no reason I see for such a drop off in QPF as it heads north based on whats occurring downstream. But I'll leave it to the pros for real thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 0z HRRR, 3km NAM, and 12k NAM coming in hot for northern Ohio. The million dollar question will be the temperatures. This will be especially be true during the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: not a met. I've just seen the NAM do this before. To this point all other guidance screams this is an outlier. Plus no reason I see for such a drop off in QPF as it heads north based on whats occurring downstream. But I'll leave it to the pros for real thoughts. Pulled the same stunt this morning, so, I'd toss it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'll get a chance to look much more in depth when I get to the office in a couple hours. Initial reaction is that the NAM always seems to be like a windshield wiper for our area. Until we see model support for that depiction, I don't see putting a ton of stock in it at this time since as @Chicago Storm noted the PWATs were actually up on this run. WPC likes to lean on the ensemble means for QPF forecasting since those are usually more stable and they add in details from some of the high res stuff. Interested in seeing their thoughts when I get in. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 It is kind of neat to see people from IL, IN, and OH in here at the same time actually in the game together. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Ride 7-10” for the metro and call it a day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM is drier as well, across IA into NW IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: RGEM is drier as well, across IA into NW IL. Had to check if I was in last weeks thread... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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