Snownado Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, schoeppeya said: We moved here from Edmond, Ok. I am from Georgia. I miss the sun. At least the sun is out today. Cold, grey with bare ground is really depressing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DMX thinks that parts of central Iowa could get up to two tenths of a inch of ice accretion. That combined with the winds could cause power problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: IWX holding serve with the watch but did expand it northward to include the entire CWA. They're wording shows they're going with 4-7 in Michigan counties, 4-8 everywhere else. Thought that was odd...interested in their reasoning. Seems there's more than enough support for a warning almost 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: Thought that was odd...interested in their reasoning. Seems there's more than enough support for a warning almost 24 hours out. Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 350 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...Confidence increasing on Accumulating snow Sat Night into Sunday... While signals are getting clearer, still some forecast issues that warrant a general status quo for the area for the time being. Feature of interest should be better sampled for the 00Z Sat model data, hopefully helping out the confidence. The upper level wave will rapidly translate east with surface low pressure tracking across the northern Ohio Valley through this period. Models suggest some light snow is possible during the day Saturday, but lack of strong forcing and very dry low levels will preclude this from occurring. Strong isentropic lift will edge into far SW areas after 21Z and then spread rapidly NE into Saturday evening. Highest snow accumulations will likely occur across mainly N Indiana during the evening with axis then shifting NE overnight. Snow ratios will range from 7 to 11:1, yielding a wet snow and keeping amounts in check somewhat. That being said, still looks like a solid 3 to 5 inches across the area Saturday night with the warm air advection precip which would support a Winter Weather Advisory for at least that period. The picture becomes more fuzzy going into Sunday and possibly even into the long term as models struggle with flattening of energy as it arrives with more of a elongated trough setting up as the main energy begins to shift to the east coast. As noted by the overnight forecast, this will likely cause more of a widespread lighter snow into Sunday, but still some potential for a touch of mesobanding and higher snowfall ratios across the N and E which could boost amounts. The higher amounts could warrant a warning in parts of the area, but not enough confidence at this point to go that route. Given all these factors and after extensive coordination with surrounding offices have opted to not only hold with the watch but expand into our MI counties to handle more of 4 to 7 inch potential up in these areas as well as blend as best as possible with headline changes to our north and west. This will be an evolving situation with travel issues still expected Sat night into at least Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Snownado said: I am from Georgia. I miss the sun. At least the sun is out today. Cold, grey with bare ground is really depressing. That is the truth my man. I never realized how much those 50-60 degree sunny days help you get through winter. We finally just said we had enough and went out yesterday with temps in the twenties because the sun was out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 P&C in for Elmwood Park where I will be over the weekend. Interesting they haven’t thrown any numbers onto the Sunday snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Literally imby. That little worm area of 12" right over my house so I'm taking the 18z nam ftw lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 36 minutes ago, vortex said: Plumes down to 5.6” here. Nice group between 6-8 but also a nice group between 4-6. Lol. I’ll go 6” here. We definitely overdue. Trending in the wrong direction . Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z RGEM back snowier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z RGEM back snowier . Buried me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Trending in the wrong direction . Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! It should rip like crazy there for a while. Can see it on the CAMs before some possible modest weakening of the band as it moves through the Chicago metro area. Even if you go drizzly for a time afterwards, the damage will have been done. You're good to go. Enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: It should rip like crazy there for a while. Can see it on the CAMs before some possible modest weakening of the band as it moves through the Chicago metro area. Even if you go drizzly for a time afterwards, the damage will have been done. You're good to go. Enjoy. lol, I know. You know me though, nervous to the end. On another note, looping the p-type maps on COD for the 18z NAMs is sorta fun with how the rain/snow transition takes place to the southwest. This whole thing kinda reminds me of 12/5/05, though that one was colder...but boy did it pound quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Trending in the wrong direction . Looking the p-type plots, lots of rainers. 21z will be different. They usually follow whatever the preceding NAM does. And it was better for us. Regardless, 6” is the goal. Hopefully we can get there! Some 15z SREF members are definitely bringing mix and straight rain further north and west than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 From DVN: GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THE 925-850 MB WINDS ARE AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WHICH IS BRINGING A FREIGHT TRAIN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH BOTH MODEL AND REAL DATA OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 About what I figured for my town here on the shore of the big lake. A little more on the ridges. Good powder for the Lutsen slopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Natester said: From DVN: GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THE 925-850 MB WINDS ARE AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WHICH IS BRINGING A FREIGHT TRAIN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE CONCERN IS THAT THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER NORTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. IF THIS OCCURS THEN ICE AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER AND SNOW AMOUNTS LOWER. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH BOTH MODEL AND REAL DATA OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. Yep. I'm not expecting more than a few inches of slop. Bummer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Yep. I'm not expecting more than a few inches of slop. Bummer. At least temps will be very marginal (lower 30s) so that we won't get any notable ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ILSNOW said: Why are these 2 maps different one has 5-9 the other 8-12 and this has a large area of 8-12 It is confusing I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Buried me. Pretty safe to say the Canadian has been the most consistent model with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: It is confusing I agree Big differences to the south west as well. Dixon/Sterling area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: My first post in this storm thread, as the FWA area has been in the models sights for a significant snow for several days and I didn't want to jinx it. Being within 36 hours of onset, I'm feeling safer now. With FWA sitting at 5.0" for the winter (6.3" imby), we are overdue. In fact, the last 6" snow at FWA was on 12/11/2016 (6.3".) So even with climo only giving us a six incher once every other year, we are way overdue. I'm considering staying up all night on Saturday for a nice Jeb walk. Hopefully you won't have to be making professional emergency runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: It is confusing I agree At first i thought the 8-12 map was from early but it is time stamped 3:20 CST. No where in the forecast discussion or zone forecasts does it state 8-12. Has to be wrong . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: At first i thought the 8-12 map was from early but it is time stamped 3:20 CST. No where in the forecast discussion or zone forecasts does it state 8-12. Has to be wrong . The P&C for Elmwood Park is 6-10” for Saturday alone, with 90% snow listed for Sunday & 50% Sunday night. So 8-12” seems with what they’re kinda leaning towards outside of the warning text. I agree it is a bit of an oversight to be pushing two separate low-max levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Seems like they are using this data for their afternoon forecast. Earlier it looked closer to the 12:20PM version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 As far as the 2 snow maps from LOT, I may be wrong but I wonder if it's because the 8-12 map has a fixed legend. 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-6, 6-8, etc. I never see them alter the ranges on that one. This event sort of falls in between 6-8 and 8-12. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This seems too conservative for Chicago, even for Angrysummons. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Windy, with an east southeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Sunday Snow. High near 33. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: This seems too conservative for Chicago, even for Angrysummons. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Windy, with an east southeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Sunday Snow. High near 33. Breezy, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Yeah, my P&C just changed as well. Went from 6-10 Sat night to 4-8. Maybe they’ve got info we don’t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 KLOT peeped Natester's posts and decided to scale back 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looping the 18z NAM from 0 to 84 makes you realize how little sfc plots tell you about how a storm's going to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 LOT AFD is pretty sparse on details for the day before this event. Wish @RCNYILWX had written it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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