mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If i've learned anything...thank god we're on the northern end of the higher totals 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 KLOT updated map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 QPF may not be as high IMBY as other areas in the forum but the ratios should be a little better with colder air in place throughout. Going with 6.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 inch call looking atrocious now. i gotta keep my head up tho im on the front lines of the weenie brigade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/index.php Mean on the Plumes ticked up to 9 at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
st0rmbrkr Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Excited for you Illinois folks to hopefully get dumped on. I'm still hoping for a northern push like the last system and like what (I think) happened a lot last year. I'd be happy with 6 inches in MKE, hoping for 8 though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 sitting just south of the cutoff yet again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Hard call over here. Plumes from 1.5” to 8” with a mean around 4” but absolutely NO clustering at all. Considering the rapid transfer of energy to the east coast, would expect rapid shunting of heaviest precip to push through to the east southeast while weakening on the northern end due to our fun northern friend “BLOCK”. Without the blocking to our north, this would probably trend much further north and it still could a bit, but likely not enough to make more than a notable difference. Going with 2.5” here. RogueWaves, what’re you thinkin? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Going to push my luck but thinking Purdue (West Lafayette, IN) gets 6-7" from this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Models have been pretty consistent with averaging around .5 qpf in SW Dane County. I'm going with a 5-6" call imby. Remarkable overall consistency for days now (outside of the usual wobbles) as opposed to the last system where we were still seeing some decent shifts leading into the event - so I don't know if we'll get that last minute shift north this time. I think the heaviest totals look to stay just south of the WI/IL border. Good luck everyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Good luck Northern IL crew! I’ll be watching from the east coast. It should really rip good there tomorrow night. Probably the biggest snow since 2011? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Good luck Northern IL crew! I’ll be watching from the east coast. It should really rip good there tomorrow night. Probably the biggest snow since 2011? 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z HRRR... last evening this model had all snow down to I-80 in eastern Iowa at this time. Meanwhile, the Euro still does have all snow. One of them is very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Hard call over here. Plumes from 1.5” to 8” with a mean around 4” but absolutely NO clustering at all. Considering the rapid transfer of energy to the east coast, would expect rapid shunting of heaviest precip to push through to the east southeast while weakening on the northern end due to our fun northern friend “BLOCK”. Without the blocking to our north, this would probably trend much further north and it still could a bit, but likely not enough to make more than a notable difference. Going with 2.5” here. RogueWaves, what’re you thinkin? I think you will do well over there on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 46 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/index.php Mean on the Plumes ticked up to 9 at ORD. 15z mean actually had a nice jump from 9z, ORD actually at 10 with lots of big dogs above, p good sign late in the game as they had been a bit drier than i expected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Game on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: 15z mean actually had a nice jump from 9z, ORD actually at 10 with lots of big dogs above, p good sign late in the game as they had been a bit drier than i expected I will take ARN3 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 15z mean actually had a nice jump from 9z, ORD actually at 10 with lots of big dogs above, p good sign late in the game as they had been a bit drier than i expected Held down by NMB clunkers. Most members 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 HRRR 18z Kuchera ratio gives CR 5.4 inches. Still has changeover from sleet to snow at 6 pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Held down by NMB clunkers. Most members 10-12 yeah real nice set and a welcome late game jump, looks like more or less ord bullseye too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Natester said: HRRR 18z Kuchera ratio gives CR 5.4 inches. Still has changeover from sleet to snow at 6 pm Saturday. The HRRR has a 7:1 ratio over here. That'll be fun to clean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR has a 7:1 ratio over here. That'll be fun to clean. Bricks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 HRRR must be good friends with Stebo. Says eff you, McHenrySnow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 stebo is good peeps 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR has a 7:1 ratio over here. That'll be fun to clean. At least we aren't getting a foot of 7:1 ratio snow. That much wet snow is enough to collapse flat roofs and cause major tree and power line damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: stebo is good peeps he treats me like dirt, hence the joke 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Kokomo final call - 4-6" I just think the warm air and low ratios (7:1) will eat away at the total. The 18z HRRR does show a solid 8-9" county wide though so hopefully I'll bust low with my call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 nam gonna be juiced 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 55 minutes ago, fluoronium said: sitting just south of the cutoff yet again Same here. Maybe a couple inches then Noah build the ark.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think compaction, sleet mixing in, low snow ratios & this thing losing its moisture transport slowly as it drifts into a storm off the Seaboard hurts the totals a little bit compared to models. Interesting storm but these ratios are not ideal for anything over 10" as we've seen in the past For NW Ohio 3-5" east of 75, 4-8" west of it. 4-8" for all of Northern IN 6-10" for Northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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