McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, Natester said: 15z RAP gives CR 7.2 inches of cement on Saturday evening. Also winds are somewhat weaker as shown on the NAM 3k. That's 10-1. Kuchera gives you 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: That's 10-1. Kuchera gives you 5". Yeah, you're possibly right since this is a wet sticky snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 UKIE and NAM are similar for my area, the GFS and GEM want to cut off the heavier stuff to western OH only. Guess we'll see which way EURO goes being the tiebreaker lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z UKIE 10:1 snow map prolly little overdone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ^big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: ILX update warmer ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2021 EARLY ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM DEPICTS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TIED TO A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET NOSING UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL EVALUATE FURTHER, BUT THIS MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SNOW TOTALS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: On that note, what are your thoughts on blowing/drifting potential? It's a good point about the actual air temperatures. The moisture content of the snow and overall density will be high but maybe it can still be blown around when temps are 28-30 instead of 31-33. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk On Tuesday, ORD reported blowing and drifting snow when the lake enhancement picked up. Temps were 30-31 and winds were gusting near 30MPH at the time. Looks like ratios w/ that averaged ~11:1 so I would think there may be some of that again this weekend. That evening there was a blast of wind at my place for 10-15 min that caused blowing and drifting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: they'll update in an hour or two, definitely a classic 6-10 look and lol @ mbp1 which consistently shows like no qpf which would be a heck of feet to pull of in this setup even this caved now... showing 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: That's 10-1. Kuchera gives you 5". Can hear the sass in this post all the way from Colorado 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Can hear the sass in this post all the way from Colorado loving our new poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: I don't think I've seen an Alek call on this event. Perhaps missed it. it's on page 1 On 1/26/2021 at 4:01 AM, A-L-E-K said: 3" final call with the dampening spinner gonna need a significant bust on even low end guidance to verify 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 6:57 AM, mimillman said: Ride the GEM. In all honesty I think this is going to be a slop fest and not amount to much, but would love to be pleasantly surprised. Temperatures aloft look like they will be an issue. I was talking about Southern Illinois/Indiana in my initial thoughts btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just a FWIW, HREF FRAM 24 totals have widespread .10 ice accretion in Iowa and Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 the real greats know how to take their hits in the no stakes game of message board posting 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Let's get this show on the road! Can't remember the last time things felt so locked and loaded in the Chicago metro for days leading up to a winter event. Sidenote: I re-read the Iowa derecho thread last night for the first time since the event and thoroughly enjoyed it. Recommended! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Liking 7-9" locally. Maybe slight upside potential given the factors that have been mentioned by others but I'm not going to get greedy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Thinking 5-8" locally. Going to say 6" final (?) guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: it's on page 1 gonna need a significant bust on even low end guidance to verify Lol that's how I wanna call Ohio sometimes. Whatever the low end on models are subtract 50% lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The CAMs keep warming it up over here and lowering snow totals, but the globals, particularly the GFSv16 and Euro, won't budge from their colder and snowier solutions. 12z Euro 10:1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My first post in this storm thread, as the FWA area has been in the models sights for a significant snow for several days and I didn't want to jinx it. Being within 36 hours of onset, I'm feeling safer now. With FWA sitting at 5.0" for the winter (6.3" imby), we are overdue. In fact, the last 6" snow at FWA was on 12/11/2016 (6.3".) So even with climo only giving us a six incher once every other year, we are way overdue. I'm considering staying up all night on Saturday for a nice Jeb walk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Kankakee looking good on the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: ILX update warmer ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2021 EARLY ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM DEPICTS PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TIED TO A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET NOSING UP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL EVALUATE FURTHER, BUT THIS MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SNOW TOTALS. Sounds about par for the course. Holding hope dynamic cooling will help cool the column more for a heavy wet snow vs rain snow mix. I don't forsee much in the way with freezing rain with marginal temps. Maybe some sleet or graupel with convective nature of WAA precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Still wondering if ILN will expand watches. The news from ILX about temps being warmer is a downer for sure being I'll be right on the edge of the r/s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 First call for here of 5 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Kankakee looking good on the 12z Euro. It’s been steady. Hope it’s the king again. But all other models are decreasing snowfall for here, for various reasons. And I’m still a little leery about that much snow, in a short amount of time. I think I’d make a call of 3-6” right now, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 low ball^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8" call for MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Calling double digits. 10.8” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro puts me at 13" NWS says 3-5" gfs at .5". I'm pretty sure there's no way to know lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Calling double digits. 10.8” ^ yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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