Sciascia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I’ll call 9.9” at O’Hare. Missing double digits by the slimmest of margins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MIstorm97 said: Gonna suck watching this one slide SW after watching the last storm slide just to the north. Storm on the 5th a guaranteed miss. Just brutal lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Early call 7.5" here. 8" ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, mimillman said: I agree. I think it's a good floor though in case thermals actualize very poor and dendrite quality is sub par. I want to believe over 12" is achievable but bottom line is our climo does not support it historically and this event does not appear exceptional. So here's a little Chicago snowstorm climo. Officially, there have been 49 storms of 10"+ since records began. If you narrow it down to 12"+ storms, there have been 26 of those. If you narrow it down to 14"+ storms, there have been 12 of those. So historically... when Chicago has had a 10" storm, a little over 50% of those have actually reached 12" (26 out of 49). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Sciascia said: I’ll call 9.9” at O’Hare. Missing double digits by the slimmest of margins. I hear we are in good hands with the official measurement at Ohare. Maybe they will give us a bump if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: So here's a little Chicago snowstorm climo. Officially, there have been 49 storms of 10"+ since records began. If you narrow it down to 12"+ storms, there have been 26 of those. If you narrow it down to 14"+ storms, there have been 12 of those. So historically... when Chicago has had a 10" storm, a little over 50% of those have actually reached 12" (26 out of 49). Here comes lucky thirteen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Re. our (LOT) snow map, spoke to dayshift forecaster and he toned it down slightly for this issuance because it was a big increase from the midnight shift. Internally, WPC went bigger than the WFOs did. The forecaster (KJB) is one our best with winter weather and he wanted to trend instead of jump with today's issuance. I'm good with that approach. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Best in the game^ 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My early call for this storm is 6 inches of cement for CR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7.5" for Toledo. A bit wishful thinking but it feels right. First and final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 because i feel lucky my final call here is 6 inches. now time to pray for everything to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro looks pretty identical to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 31 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Solid red tag post. Keep up the excellent quality. 1 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looking like 6-8" of cement for here/QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looking like 6-8" of cement for here/QC. One thing to look out for is potential tree damage and spotty power outages. Here temps are forecast to stay a degree below freezing during the height of the snow but the snow will still be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro looks pretty identical to 12zBump south and a bit wetter, but otherwise noise level change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Legit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I can post the 18z Euro WeatherBell WeenieVision Kuchera map in Banter. Edit: In seriousness, I do see the possibility of higher ratios something along the lines of what the WxBell map shows for the whole area in a much narrower swath. You don't get that kind of support for heavy rates and big QPF in a short amount of time without having fgen driven mesoscale banding where everything aligns perfectly. In that swath could see ratios let's say in 12-14:1 range. I don't want to make definitive statements until I see everything in depth tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 47 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Given how conservative ILN usually is with snow this is notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Take the 10:1 and use your imagination 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: Solid red tag post. Keep up the excellent quality. Just out of curiosity how do you get the red tag? Do you have to be a practicing meteorologist? I have a Bachelor's in Atmospheric Sciences from WIU. Just was curious how that worked. Sorry to get off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Just out of curiosity how do you get the red tag? Do you have to be a practicing meteorologist? I have a Bachelor's in Atmospheric Sciences from WIU. Just was curious how that worked. Sorry to get off topic. You can get one. Be prepared for childish insults if you say something Stebo or certain others don't agree with. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I can post the 18z Euro WeatherBell WeenieVision Kuchera map in Banter. Edit: In seriousness, I do see the possibility of higher ratios something along the lines of what the WxBell map shows for the whole area in a much narrower swath. You don't get that kind of support for heavy rates and big QPF in a short amount of time without having fgen driven mesoscale banding where everything aligns perfectly. In that swath could see ratios let's say in 12-14:1 range. I don't want to make definitive statements until I see everything in depth tonight. You don't want to post the weatherbell kuchera map on LOT twitter? Transient higher ratios do seem like a possibility in the heavier banding. The event average would probably have a hard time coming in like that though in most of the snow area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Just out of curiosity how do you get the red tag? Do you have to be a practicing meteorologist? I have a Bachelor's in Atmospheric Sciences from WIU. Just was curious how that worked. Sorry to get off topic. I am not sure what the qualification is now, I got mine when I was already working. Inquiring with an admin would be a good idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: You can get one. Be prepared for childish insults if you say something Stebo or certain others don't agree with. Dude, you literally post nothing of significance ever. Like I haven't seen you post any model diagnostics, other than wishcasting something does or doesn't happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Stebo said: I am not sure what the qualification is now, I got mine when I was already working. Inquiring with an admin would be a good idea. Appreciate the info. Who are the admins for the group? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 There are easily at least 10 other posters in this thread I would give red tags to before yourself... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is it just me, having grown up in North Carolina where the potential for an inch of snow is breaking news a week in advance, or are the local news outlets in Chicago not giving this storm nearly enough attention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Is it just me, having grown up in North Carolina where the potential for an inch of snow is breaking news a week in advance, or are the local news outlets in Chicago not giving this storm enough attention? What you see now is about average... Maybe just a bit less given the trend down prior to the last storm system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 In 10 years or so of posting here I've never been insulted by anyone. Criticism of the forecast comes with the territory; at times can it be slightly unfair? Yes. But other than that we're judged by the content we provide to help others learn and it's important to consider that as a red tagger. We don't get or deserve a pass for too many Banter type posts in a serious forecast discussion. 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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