Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just one model but I made a loop of the 850 mb low path on the 18z NAM. Nothing really out of the envelope here as far as track and weakening tendency with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z GFS continues the wetter trend in the wettest areas central IL has about .30 more then 12z but northern IL .08 or so less perhaps this may be from more convection in the central part of the state zapping a fraction of the northern moisture transport? or perhaps just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Some good lake effect returns coming off of Huron for you Ontario folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The GFS-Elect (V16) showing a more similar solution & proving it’s in favor of a peaceful transfer of (model) power from the current GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFSv16 also keeps moisture hanging around longer during the day Sunday adding to much higher totals in northeast IN, northwest OH and southern MI. NAM dries things out quicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The north trend stopped on the 18Z NAM too but we'll see what happens once the models ingest the new data tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Well I'll gladly step in and be the one to issue the Winter Storm Watch for LOT. My attention is now shifting to how I'm safely going to get to the office for my Saturday night midnight shift lol. As modeled, the support for widespread intense snowfall rates Saturday evening into the overnight looks better than we have seen locally in quite some time. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Bam 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Svrwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, CoachLB said: Big middle finger right by me. I’m screwed. We are in the 9 inch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Baby steps... Haha yeah. Watch sampling take this to West Branch. Serious tho, we could stand a slight bump or two going forward. RDPS looks whiffy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Svrwx said: We are in the 9 inch area. Yeah. If you zoom in it looks like the middle finger LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Bam Man if only I could lock this in. Pure pound town. Might me a tad cool with sfc temps though. Warm nose always seems to get underestimated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Haha yeah. Watch sampling take this to West Branch. Serious tho, we could stand a slight bump or two going forward. RDPS looks whiffy Yeah that would be our luck. Wonder if the wave ejects further south. Currently riding the trough out west. Sampling/tomorrow’s runs should help with this but I’m willing to be we actually get our first legitimate “storm” (2-4”) out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 KLOT 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Given the lack of any significant snow in my area on the models I can assure you the more southern route is definitely the correct solution. You just can’t make it snow more than a few inches in the vicinity of GRR this year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hit 'em with the weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: KLOT I realize there's a blend but that looks like 80% weighted toward the op GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ^ not bad if that's the lame(toss) model for MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty livid I can’t come home for this one. Looks awesome 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Given the lack of any significant snow in my area on the models I can assure you the more southern route is definitely the correct solution. You just can’t make it snow more than a few inches in the vicinity of GRR this year. So not only do we use reverse psychology on our kids, but also on ourselves, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 yea, these rates are going to be solid. Definitely midnight jebwalk night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 yep pretty much every other model has at least 1 inch of precip with our friend the GFS para printing 1.6 for downtown Chicago. Doesnt hurt to start conservative and increase as we get closer I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6-12" final call 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 For me here timing will be crucial. If precip can move in Sat evening vs afternoon I stand a better chance of seeing wintry precip. I do think that there could still be a nice burst of heavy snow with dynamic and evaporative cooling for areas further south that will likely changeover at some point. Here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: 6-12" final call Going out on a limb with that one, lol I busted badly on the recent storm so am in need of a redeemer. All I'd say at this point is that I would be stunned beyond belief to come in under 6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8-14" final call. Go big or go home. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Going out on a limb with that one, lol I busted badly on the recent storm so am in need of a redeemer. All I'd say at this point is that I would be stunned beyond belief to come in under 6" I agree. I think it's a good floor though in case thermals actualize very poor and dendrite quality is sub par. I want to believe over 12" is achievable but bottom line is our climo does not support it historically and this event does not appear exceptional. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Apparently it's time to call it. 8.5". Dry air not an issue this time around, but ratios may struggle. However, they often seem to do better than expected in heavy banding, so I could be low-balling. Looks like a serious thump for several hours before it wanes. Got a hike planned into the backyard forest preserve and over to the ol' sled hill around 9 PM Saturday night. Hoping it'll be ripping hard. We'll have a more-than-solid 14" OTG if my prediction pans out. January 2019 was probably the last time we had snow that deep. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gonna suck watching this one slide SW after watching the last storm slide just to the north. Storm on the 5th a guaranteed miss. Just brutal lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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