RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 In the end, GFS drops 7-8 at ORD like more or less every other modelTrue. I think it's the much narrower swath of good totals that's suspect but Chicago looking good still should say something. 10:1 is slightly higher than Pivotal Weather's Kuchera output on that run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Yeah, I'd say Chicagoland is locked in. Famous last words. The caveat is the thermals. How far north does mixing enter the picture? The main forcing should be snow, but I could see it getting pretty sloppy/drizzly after that passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: True. I think it's the much narrower swath of good totals that's suspect but Chicago looking good still should say something. 10:1 is slightly higher than Pivotal Weather's Kuchera output on that run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk yeah, I think far NE IL is sitting nice, with a little wiggle room to absorb north bumps which are probably coming given the strong advection regime and sub 10:1 probably fine for an event average, but I bet we do better than that during the period of best lift saturday evening despite the bad thermals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Famous last words. The caveat is the thermals. How far north does mixing enter the picture? The main forcing should be snow, but I could see it getting pretty sloppy/drizzly after that passes through.Na, colder air will be wrapping in Sun evening and beyond.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Goofus kuchera clown map with 9" at yyz. Inverted surface trough from EC low on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Famous last words. The caveat is the thermals. How far north does mixing enter the picture? The main forcing should be snow, but I could see it getting pretty sloppy/drizzly after that passes through.I'm not too worried about it as long as the 850 mb low stays south of us. The lower level warm advection and fgen is going to do most of the work Saturday evening into early Sunday AM. During Sunday the system goes vertically stacked and fades east to east southeast so that would continue to keep 850 mb low to the south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It shouldn't be hard to. It's an outlier for a reason, that being garbage thermals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I know. Something about discarding a major model though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Is there a mobile friendly version of Pivotal that I’m missing? Or is it part of a paid subscription? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I know. Something about discarding a major model thoughIt no longer will be one in about 3 weeks.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Lapse rates above about 600mb are even more impressive with this system than the last. Seeing 7-10 C/km. NAM has consistently been showing potential for upright convection in the area Sat night. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 looks like we'll be getting about half the QPF of areas in N/C Illinois. But ratios should be better up here so still hoping to get around 5" as a first guess. Dry air still doesn't look to be an issue as all the dry air at 850 is shunted up to the UP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Nam still looks a good 6 hrs slower than GFS? Toss both them models along with the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Lapse rates above about 600mb are even more impressive with this system than the last. Seeing 7-10 C/km. NAM has consistently been showing potential for upright convection in the area Sat night. ready to do my best Cantore 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Goofus kuchera clown map with 9" at yyz. Inverted surface trough from EC low on steroids. Check out that gradient! Burlington pier at 11.1" with Buttonville at 3.6". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ready to do my best Cantore 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: A lot to like if you're in and around Chicago on the 12z NAM. Mid/upper level lows all take a nice track for a band of heavy snow. Think I-80 to the border is going to cash quite nicely. I think most times, these systems like to bleed a little further north than forecasted. Read the overnight AFD from LOT, and they have the heaviest a little farther north...I-88 to far north central IL. And mainly rain from I-80 to the south. Again, I think it's more I-80 on north for the heaviest snows...and the changeover to all rain, after a brief start of frozen, looks solid for the southern CWA. So your saying Accuweather’s forecast of 8-12 in our area is wrong? Haha. More than likely the typical last minute nudge north will screw us. Still thinking we get a few inches as things look now. That I-80 snow barrier is a killer. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ukie looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ukie looks goodSlight bump north and wetter.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: A lot to like if you're in and around Chicago on the 12z NAM. Mid/upper level lows all take a nice track for a band of heavy snow. Think I-80 to the border is going to cash quite nicely. I think most times, these systems like to bleed a little further north than forecasted. Read the overnight AFD from LOT, and they have the heaviest a little farther north...I-88 to far north central IL. And mainly rain from I-80 to the south. Again, I think it's more I-80 on north for the heaviest snows...and the changeover to all rain, after a brief start of frozen, looks solid for the southern CWA. I think that is a misread of the afd. They mentioned some mixing south of I-80, but that does not suggest mostly rain. Hell, the zone forecast for Kankakee county has several inches. It will be nice when this version of the GFS is put out to pasture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 What's interesting about this inverted trough setup for S ON is the mid-level convergence axis and moisture transport advecting in from both the GOMEX and ATL sectors 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crispus Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ILX Discussion excerpt, from 10am: Quote Attention then turns to this weekend, as yet another weather system lifts across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The latest ensemble and probabilistic guidance suggests a very sharp cut-off in snow totals along I-74, with periods of sleet and rain occurring progressively to the south. Some degree of uncertainty remains on timing, but light precip should spread into the region by Noon on Saturday. With the latest 12z guidance trickling in, the swath of 2+ inch snowfall has trended north of I-74; perhaps well north. Instead, sleet and rain should be the dominant precip type this weekend across central and southern IL where minor flooding could occur. So...sounds like they're thinking rain for PIA. I saw weatherunderground went from 8 inches, to 4 inches, to 2 inches, now to an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Will be fun when this gets in HRRR range. Of course be prepared for the possibility of it showing 40 degree temps up to I-80 on Saturday since it likes to overwarm the boundary layer sometimes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 paraGFS continues its run of consistency with noise level shifting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I'll gladly take the Para totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: I'll gladly take the Para totals. It appears to be banking on sub 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1' at ORD even with struggle ratios 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Plume mean up to 7.5" and there are now 8 above 10" with 13 of them having QPF of 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, RyanDe680 said: Plume mean up to 7.5" and there are now 8 above 10" Do you have a delayed feed or something? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Snow seems to stop at HR96. Amazing totals for under 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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