RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hopefully the offices don't give it much weight for this storm. This isn't just a one time thing where it's an outlier and maybe you still give it some consideration... it is an issue that has popped up multiple times this winter.Unfortunately it's one of the components of the NBM we use as a common point for the extended. It'll probably be caught and addressed given the consistency and better handle of thermal profile. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 A 10:1 map painting over a foot for Chicago? Normally need the Kuchera powers to do that the past 2 years.Our friend Kuchie. I'll say it again, the overall agreement in the general details of this system is impressive. Might lend to earlier headline issuance if the run to run consistency continues. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 For whatever it’s worth the NAM Kuchera totals at hour 84 are generally only about an inch less than the GFSv16 totals at hour 84. At least in Northern IL and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Our friend Kuchie. I'll say it again, the overall agreement in the general details of this system is impressive. Might lend to earlier headline issuance if the run to run consistency continues. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Do you still think GFS is too north esp parallel GFS? Most models seem to track low near I70. That was closer to I72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Do you still think GFS is too north esp parallel GFS? Most models seem to track low near I70. That was closer to I72. I don't and tbh season trends this year says this is probably a hair south of where it will end up too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 while the GEM favors our southern friends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I have a recollection of the gfs v16 having issues overamping precip some months back and it was delayed, did this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I don't and tbh season trends this year says this is probably a hair south of where it will end up too. I mean that wouldn't shock me given trends like you said. But I definitely think GFS thermals are too warm and it may be underestimating dynamic and/or evaporative cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: I mean that wouldn't shock me given trends like you said. But I definitely think GFS thermals are too warm and it may be underestimating dynamic and/or evaporative cooling. The temps are definitely sus, unless it ends up a bit north then you'd expect some warmer temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I mean that wouldn't shock me given trends like you said. But I definitely think GFS thermals are too warm and it may be underestimating dynamic and/or evaporative cooling. looks like the GEFS mean precip increased for us some since 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I mean that wouldn't shock me given trends like you said. But I definitely think GFS thermals are too warm and it may be underestimating dynamic and/or evaporative cooling. That I agree with, especially on the operational GFS. I think there's a theoretical northerly limit for the track because of the block but maybe it could nudge a bit more. It depends on location when it tracks northeast and what latitude it ends up because eventually the block causes an easterly phase. It was already mentioned by@Hoosier earlier how this setup with no Hudson Bay block is a wrapped up cutter, which is pretty clearly the case. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just a reminder the GEM did quite well with the placement of primary features inside 72 hours for this last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WPC for now seems to favor a track near I70. Obviously can change but think that's a good call on overall blend of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 WPC for now seems to favor a track near I70. Obviously can change but think that's a good call on overall blend of the models. That's basically the EPS mean track, which also is a good blend of the remainder of the guidance. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 UKMET with a nice spread the wealth system 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ill fill in the gaps guys... Looks like its juicy! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 But seriously, I'll ride the v16 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This thing is definitely trending well for Chicagoland and west. Euro is a good deal north, very much in line with other guidance at a quick snowfall map glance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The euro, NAM, GFS v16, are all in almost perfect agreement at this point. It’d be nice if that continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z Euro - A couple changes. First, the snow doesn't extend into western Iowa like last run. Second, the snow band tracks more eastward compared to the ese track on the 12z run. The snow is really going to be dumping when the precip shield initially blows up. The Euro (and probably other models, too) has 6-8" falling from Iowa into Illinois between 00z and 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 CIPS list fwiw 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Interesting looking gradient between PIA and BMI on the 10:1 map that was posted. Probably one of those things that wouldn't quite actually play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Has GHD2 always been 4th on the CIPS list or is it creeping higher and higher? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z Euro - A couple changes. First, the snow doesn't extend into western Iowa like last run. Second, the snow band tracks more eastward compared to the ese track on the 12z run. The snow is really going to be dumping when the precip shield initially blows up. The Euro (and probably other models, too) has 6-8" falling from Iowa into Illinois between 00z and 06z. Kuchera output for the 00z EuroSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If...if this plays out as guidance has been showing, it’ll be the first time an event was nailed down this well several days out in eons.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Kuchera output for the 00z Euro Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk That suggests a lousy ratio (<10:1) along the southern part of the heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: That suggests a lousy ratio (<10:1) along the southern part of the heavy band. More cement for the glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 That suggests a lousy ratio (Makes some sense with warmer thermal profile, which tends to shrink the DGZ. Would have to check the soundings though. If the lift is maxed out and well aligned with the DGZ, can get higher ratios than suggested by MaxT from sfc to 500 mb, which is what Kuchera is basically. Also if you have a deep isothermal layer you can get riming and aggregates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: That suggests a lousy ratio (<10:1) along the southern part of the heavy band. This probably doesn't help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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