Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Good news is...Once again, ORD measurements will be in good to great hands. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Relative to climo, there is probably nobody in this thread who can beat my futility other than RogueWaves. Biggest snow here this season is just a hair over 2". I think this storm will beat it, and if it doesn't, it will be very tempting to throw in the towel on this winter lol I still have the great white hope at least for one storm this season in the Calumet, but must admit after the tornadoes in AL and FL I am starting to whet the whistle for svr season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z NAM as good or better than 18z run was for the areas it favored. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Feeling good about mby for this one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The 0z NAM looking good also for northwest Ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 00z NAM as good or better than 18z run was for the areas it favored. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I-80 does very well but a fairly wide snow band. Too bad it's not 3 hours away instead of 3 days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I-80 does very well but a fairly wide snow band. Too bad it's not 3 hours away instead of 3 days. Under 3 days out now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 Also worth noting the 925 mb winds of 40-50 kts in much of the snow area. May have trouble mixing that much but still probably looking at some 30-35 mph gusts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Models have sucked outside 24 maybe 36 hours out, not just this winter but all year. Don't think there's anything wrong with them. I think it's due to a lack of data. Not sure how much weight aircraft data plays into it but we're still at 50%-60% worldwide from this time last year, less on ocean crossing data. I can't help but think it's still having an impact. I could be wrong. I don't trust any model outside 24 maybe 36 hours out especially involving upper air features that ROAB sites sample 24-36 hours before they make it half way across the conus. 12Z Saturday I'll start making a short play on this storm. Edit: This isnt a wishcast just an observation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It's got to play a big part in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 0z RGEM came in with more of an orientation similar to other guidance... More W-E instead of NW-SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM came in with more of an orientation similar to other guidance... More W-E instead of NW-SE. Precip south as a result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Precip south as a result? Snow axis was south in IA, but generally north in IL/IN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 0z RGEM through 12z Sunday morning. Still snowing across most areas.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM through 12z Sunday morning. Still snowing across most areas... . The low initially is about 5mb weaker out in the plains compared to NAM/GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 In agreement at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This will be a 6 hour heavy thump for anyone in the main advection. 1-1.5”/hour rates, not the type that doesn’t stick to roads 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 00z NAMAnd still snowing in many areas as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: This will be a 6 hour heavy thump for anyone in the main advection. 1-1.5”/hour rates, not the type that doesn’t stick to roads Agreed. It's going to be awesome watching this thing explode on regional radar too. Too bad it'll be at night, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Garbage thermals likely mean the GFS can be ignored. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Garbage thermals likely mean the GFS can be ignored.Yep GFS is on its own with the garbage thermals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Garbage thermals likely mean the GFS can be ignored.V16 is very nice again for QCA, southern WI, northern IL, northern IN, southern lower MI and northwest OH. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Garbage thermals likely mean the GFS can be ignored. WTF is wrong with it lately? perhaps they should start re compiling the AVN model from 2001 instead LOL 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 V16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Yep GFS is on its own with the garbage thermals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Hopefully the offices don't give it much weight for this storm. This isn't just a one time thing where it's an outlier and maybe you still give it some consideration... it is an issue that has popped up multiple times this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Garbage thermals likely mean the GFS can be ignored. Ride it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Spartman MIA not making sense. Somethings up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Really hoping Champaign/Cent. IL can get in on some of the action this time around. Not trying to get too hopeful but would be delighted for a nice 5+ incher. Will be lurking a lot these next few days — hard to stay positive but also realistic with these models spitting out crazy totals lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: V16 A 10:1 map painting over a foot for Chicago? Normally need the Kuchera powers to do that the past 2 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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