purduewx80 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Our storm produced hail on the beaches of SoCal earlier today - nice indication of cold temps aloft that will contribute to the steep lapse rates. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm back tonight with MTF so we'll both be diving into stuff. Can't say much about the slight drop in forecast totals since I recently woke up lol. I'll defer to those who have been closely following the data all day for now and probably chime in later when I've looked at more stuff. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anyone have the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 21z RAP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Here’s the 18z Euro 10:1. I refuse to post the weenie kuchera in order to avoid mass hysteria in LOT 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NWS Wilmington Ohio ain’t having any of it. Talking about dropping watches and going block advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Here’s the 18z Euro 10:1. I refuse to post the weenie kuchera in order to avoid mass hysteria in LOT Silently(until now) been rooting for the Euro, it has been consistent at giving me measurable snowfall, but feel it's an outlier in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Here’s the 18z Euro 10:1. I refuse to post the weenie kuchera in order to avoid mass hysteria in LOT Not gonna complain but hope some of the better banding can survive a little longer. Quite a tease around here on multiple models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Here’s the 18z Euro 10:1. I refuse to post the weenie kuchera in order to avoid mass hysteria in LOT Thank you; and come on...what’s wrong with letting people think they’ll get almost 2 feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Not seeing much reason to modify my 3" call for IC. Things generally look to start as rain here and transition to snow overnight. One potential wildcard in heavy rates forcing a switch quicker than anticipated, or more snow behind the low than currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoachLB said: NWS Wilmington Ohio ain’t having any of it. Talking about dropping watches and going block advisory. ILN dropping what watches? I didn’t see any watches from them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, pondo1000 said: ILN dropping what watches? I didn’t see any watches from them? I’m under the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: ILN dropping what watches? I didn’t see any watches from them? Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 331 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051-052-301000- /O.CON.KILN.WS.A.0001.210131T0000Z-210201T1200Z/ Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami- Champaign- Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana 331 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The heaviest snow will fall on Saturday night into Sunday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Gino27 said: ILN backtracking with totals. Looks like my 741 day no WSW streak will survive. I think I may beat that. The likelihood of any WSW down here is extremely low, unlike our chances at going more than 741 days with no more than 2.5” of snow in a 24 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Thx! Missed those counties that fall under ILN. I’m in Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, CoachLB said: I’m under the watch. Sorry. Missed that. I’m in Delaware County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The 18z Euro is the first Euro run to move Cedar Rapids out of the 6+" 10:1 snowfall. On top of that, the 00z HRRR is even warmer once again and, like the NAMs, brings plain rain up into Cedar Rapids. This formerly "locked-in" snow event is fading fast over here. Perfect low track, strong storm, but not enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Early look at 00z HRRR suggests it may be north of the 18z run... to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Let's hope the Euro doesn't cave to what the GFS is showing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Took me a minute, but think I just got rid of the heart attack inducing sound for a notification. That thing has scared the crap out of me more times than the DGEX let me down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This storm is gonna end up with a McHenry County bullseye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Peep the 0z HRRR. Legitimate hammer time in N IL, unless I'm missing something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 18z Euro is the first Euro run to move Cedar Rapids out of the 6+" 10:1 snowfall. On top of that, the 00z HRRR is even warmer once again and, like the NAMs, brings plain rain up into Cedar Rapids. This formerly "locked-in" snow even is fading fast over here. Perfect low track, strong storm, not enough cold air. Even though what's going on Canada is helping keep the track rather flat, the antecedent airmass just isn't that great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: Peep the 0z HRRR. Legitimate hammer time in N IL, unless I'm missing something. Precip breaks out extra early too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 0z HRRR moves precip into some areas faster than other guidance, including Chicago metro. Has a dusting in some areas at 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 0z HRRR says areas south of I-80 in NE Illinois gets 9-10 inches of cement based off of the kuchera ratio, whereas areas north of I-80 have a slightly drier snow. That's going to cause some damage. At least for here the 0z HRRR shows just under 4 inches of cement via kuchera ratio. I'd gladly take 4 inches of extremely wet snow over 10 inches of extremely wet snow because I like having the power on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Zing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Early look at 00z HRRR suggests it may be north of the 18z run... to some degree. By about 50-75 miles. gets the 850 nose all the way up to just south of FWA when it was just north of of I-70 at 18Z. It's trying to p*%s on my parade big time lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Jackstraw said: By about 50-75 miles. gets the 850 nose all the way up to just south of FWA when it was just north of of I-70 at 18Z. It's trying to p*%s on my parade big time lol. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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