Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If you were just looking at the composite reflectivity on the 18z nam (twisterdata) for the first time for this storm, you'd get so pumped to see the huge blob of heavy precip exploding, expanding, making a B-line (i think that was a accuweather forum posters name) straight NE towards SEMI. Then it hits the wall, what a bummer. Not something you see very often and its happened twice the past week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looking at NAM I'm getting a little worried about mixing issues.. starting to look more like the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM giving IA a bit more rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Looking at NAM I'm getting a little worried about mixing issues.. starting to look more like the GFS Are we looking at the same model? Its not even close 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Looking at NAM I'm getting a little worried about mixing issues.. starting to look more like the GFS Not in DuPage County. The brunt of the precip will be heavy snow. Once it lightens up, there could conceivably be some drizzle, but most of the qpf has already fallen by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Are we looking at the same model? Its not even close I jumped the gun ..I was looking at hour 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The NAMs really speed up the precipitation tomorrow. It's breaking out in southern Wisconsin by 3 PM Also all of the 18z models have shifted the heaviest precip band in a more NW/SE orientation. The QC area gets a lot less snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM giving IA a bit more rain. I saw. Both the NAM 12k and NAM 3k puts CR above 32F changing the ZR to plain rain before changing to snow at 6-7 PM. Likely going to be a 6:1 ratio snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, madwx said: The NAMs really speed up the precipitation tomorrow. It's breaking out in southern Wisconsin by 3 PM i mentioned that earlier, it's very believable given the look at 850 and the way waa events play out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM is a bit deeper and noise level north as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3k NAM says forget the mixing, let's just go with rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: 3k NAM says forget the mixing, let's just go all rain. Right.. That had me worried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Right.. That had me worriedNo reason to be.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z NAM showing the 12z run was just funky. Reverted back to better qpf in NE IL and NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Yikes! NAM 3k doesn't even give CR 2.5 inches. The NAM 12k is a bit better but just below 4 inches. I hope the HRRR verifies unless the 0z run shows CR in cold rain for a few hours. Going to lower my call by an half an inch to 5.5 inches if the HRRR is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Natester said: Yikes! NAM 3k doesn't even give CR 2.5 inches. The NAM 12k is a bit better but just below 4 inches. I hope the HRRR verifies unless the 0z run shows CR in cold rain for a few hours. Going to lower my call by an half an inch to 5.5 inches if the HRRR is to be believed. This is ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Weenie post: 3k NAM with a beautiful lollipop over St. Joseph County, IN. Lock that in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The NAM twins smoking NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: The NAM twins smoking NE IL Not as quite as a paste job as in Iowa since temps hold 3-4 degrees below freezing for NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM also has lake enhanced convergence stuff ongoing into sunday evening for Chicago Metro 1/3 to 1/2 inch per hour rates at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 According to the NWS forecast, CR only forecast to get 2-4 inches of snow on top of a tenth of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Weenie post: 3k NAM with a beautiful lollipop over St. Joseph County, IN. Lock that in. Looking bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is ridiculoushe’ll flip 5 more times at least.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: It’s been steady. Hope it’s the king again. But all other models are decreasing snowfall for here, for various reasons. And I’m still a little leery about that much snow, in a short amount of time. I think I’d make a call of 3-6” right now, all things considered. Plumes down to 5.6” here. Nice group between 6-8 but also a nice group between 4-6. Lol. I’ll go 6” here. We definitely overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: he’ll flip 5 more times at least. . 5 bid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I think a tad conservative? Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 238 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...Heavy Wet Snow and Wind Likely Saturday PM into Early Sunday... ILZ005-006-013-103-104-300445- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0002.210130T2100Z-210201T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0002.210130T2100Z-210201T0000Z/ McHenry-Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook- Including the cities of Crystal Lake, Algonquin, McHenry, Woodstock, Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein, Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, and La Grange 238 PM CST Fri Jan 29 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...McHenry, Lake IL, DuPage, Northern Cook and Central Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 PM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to very low visibilities and snow packed roads. Power outages are also possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like there's going to be some nowcasting my snow amounts here in Carmel, In, we are riding right on that line. Cold, grey, and no snow on the ground has made for a rough introduction to Midwest winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, schoeppeya said: Looks like there's going to be some nowcasting my snow amounts here in Carmel, In, we are riding right on that line. Cold, grey, and no snow on the ground has made for a rough introduction to Midwest winters. Where are u from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 IWX holding serve with the watch but did expand it northward to include the entire CWA. They're wording shows they're going with 4-7 in Michigan counties, 4-8 everywhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Snownado said: Where are u from ? We moved here from Edmond, Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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