michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: DVN going with 7:1-10:1 LSR for the cwa which sound pretty solid. I will say that LSRs could be briefly much higher in the first enhanced band. Wouldn't be surprised to see large flakes with that add up very quickly. Gonna ride the 6-8" call but wouldn't be surprised if totals are more than that, especially a bit northeast of here. its your magnet this winter. what's your current snowpack and what's the highest you can remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: its your magnet this winter. what's your current snowpack and what's the highest you can remember? The top layer from the most recent layer settled a bit, so down to about 10". Highest I can remember was somewhere around 20". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z EPS Mean. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 06z EPS expanded the areal coverage of 6"+ probs versus its previous 3 runs. Higher than normal confidence continues at this lead. Barring any last minute surprises, which seems unlikely, we'll be going with a warning this afternoon. While our far southern CWA could have ptype issue and less snow, think chances are decreasing that they don't get several hours of heavy snow with the intense warm advection burst.Regarding our snow forecast, felt pretty comfortable with it, even limited WPC QPF slightly 00z-06z in our grids and kept ratio mostly 7-9:1 range, with spots near 10:1. Unlike the last system, it does look like unimpeded Gulf trajectories and very strong moisture transport this time with extreme PWATs for a snow system. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm on the very eastern fringe of the watch. Calling for 5-8. Anything over 6" would be my biggest storm in almost 6 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 SREF's trended better for SE Michigan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The top layer from the most recent layer settled a bit, so down to about 10". Highest I can remember was somewhere around 20". you are probably closest to DVN for official sites, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 33 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The top layer from the most recent layer settled a bit, so down to about 10". Highest I can remember was somewhere around 20". We exceeded a foot many times from 2008 to 2018 (culminating near 2 feet in 2014) but since 2018 our highest depth was 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z HRRR likely doing it’s thing of overdoing lake-adjacent amounts. But would be incredible to see downtown Chicago rack up a foot of snow by 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 31 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I'm on the very eastern fringe of the watch. Calling for 5-8. Anything over 6" would be my biggest storm in almost 6 years. ILN will probably hoist watches up late this afternoon. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I would be using the snow depth change depiction of snow totals on the south end just north of the rain/snow line. For example the HRRR has Bloomington getting 6.2" but only a snow depth change of 2.3". Showing that most of that snowfall is either going to be melting on contact or having a tough time accumulating due to existing rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Watches in Wisconsin counties Lafayette, Green and Rock for 5-7 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z HRRR has CR in 2.5 hours of ZR with temps at 30-31F. I don't expect much ice accumulation but when the ZR flips to sleet and then to snow, it's going to cake everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Trends on the NAM have been going in the wrong direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: Trends on the NAM have been going in the wrong direction. Though that is only for the 12k. 12z 3k NAM looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Trends on the NAM have been going in the wrong direction. Thought it looked a little fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3km NAM is a crusher, with 6-10” falling in 6hrs at one point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, CoachLB said: Thought it looked a little fast. Certainly drier in NE IL/NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: Certainly drier in NE IL/NW IN. Do you think the drying trend on the 12Z NAM makes sense? Or would you side with the more agreesive 3K version? When you say drier can you post totals say as compared to last nights 00Z run compared to the current 12Z run. Thanks, I'm interested to see how steep the drop off is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Book it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Trends on the NAM have been going in the wrong direction. I'm riding a fine line near I74. Models showing a later changeover now here. Hoping precip can arrive later. 3km nam was showing a better deformation band Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Nice run on the NAMS for extreme SE Michigan!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baum said: Do you think the drying trend on the 12Z NAM makes sense? Or would you side with the more agreesive 3K version? When you say drier can you post totals say as compared to last nights 00Z run compared to the current 12Z run. Thanks, I'm interested to see how steep the drop off is. I don't think the gap in QPF makes a lot of sense. Would like to see the other models 12z runs to see if this is clearly an outlier or if there is a trend among all of the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This morning's NAM is a good direction for the CLE area near the lakeshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 When the convective allowing nested model seems to be handling things well in a pretty convective setup given such steep lapse rates, if anything can give it more weight than the parent model. Liquid equivalent QPF amounts on the NAM aren't too far off what the consensus has been, I guess we'll have to watch for an earlier weakening of the warm advection burst for far northern areas, but like@McHenrySnow said, that seems to be an outlier depiction in there. Not overly concerned with a slightly off looking run of the NAM. If both NAMs came in drier, would have been a bit more concerned. Another thing is with QPF so fickle, a look under the hood at the soundings and other aspects to support the heavy snow rates would help. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 There is definitely an increase in QPF across Missouri across both versions of the NAM and the 3K paints a relative QPF minima over central Indiana. I don't have time to delve into it more deeply than that right now. Just something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: When the convective allowing nested model seems to be handling things well in a pretty convective setup given such steep lapse rates, if anything can give it more weight than the parent model. Liquid equivalent QPF amounts on the NAM aren't too far off what the consensus has been, I guess we'll have to watch for an earlier weakening of the warm advection burst for far northern areas. If both NAMs came in drier, would have been more concerned. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Agreed. Though there does appear to be legitimate concerns across Indiana from both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Book it. The center of that bullseye is literally on my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristie Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I am trying to get a good judge on the toledo ohio area can anyone help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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