cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: While we've been analyzing the thermals, there is a new unfriendly trend for Iowa. Some models are now veering the heavy precip farther east into Illinois and bypassing much of Iowa. The UK has been consistently one of the snowiest models for central to eastern Iowa. Tonight's run cut out a huge chunk of our precip. Hopefully that trend ceases and reverses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That March 1999 storm has been at #1 every time I have looked. Based on xmacis got 5.8 at MSN with that one. Was the last hurrah of winter that year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Hopefully that trend ceases and reverses. It’s running out of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 00z Euro - The east trend continues. Central Iowa's snow is fading, but east-central is still good....for now. This run is also a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Well, would think we'll see LOT pull the trigger on a winter storm watch with the overnight package. Great consensus on widespread warning criteria amounts and it should pound hard for a time. Main question would be whether they leave out the bottom tier of counties. Confidence probably a bit lower there than farther north but should still be sufficient enough confidence for a watch even there, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just about as bullish an AFD from KIND on not just this system but the next 10 days as I've ever seen. Especially considering the potential for a backend kitchen sink this weekend. If the models are still this consistent thru Friday I'll expect to enjoy the initial thump before mother nature fixes the water heater. Buckle up? .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... Issued at 312 PM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 The primary focus for the extended will be on the potential for a high impact winter storm over parts of central Indiana this weekend. In addition as has been expected since the Fall...this appears to be the opening salvo to the transition to a much more active weather pattern that may set the stage for the second half of the winter. An additional higher impact storm already appears on the horizon near the end of the forecast period later next week. A strong upper level low off the Pacific coast today will be the primary catalyst for our weekend system as its energy kicks onshore tonight then shifts east into the first part of the weekend. This system will strengthen as energy aloft phases over the Missouri Valley Saturday then tracks through the region Sunday. At the surface...low pressure will eject out of the central Rockies Saturday morning and move first into the mid Mississippi Valley by Saturday night and across the Ohio Valley Sunday. The combination of the upper low and surface wave will result in a complex but potent winter storm that is set to bring for some the best shot at accumulating snow so far this winter and really in the last couple of winters. Initially...Saturday will start out dry with increasing clouds as the region remains under the influence of the retreating high pressure. The location of the high to our east will serve as a critical component for the first phase of the storm set to begin impacting the forecast area late Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night. A residual cold...dry airmass will still be present even as the high pressure departs. The surge of isentropic lift that arrives in tandem with the initial precip should have no trouble overcoming the dry air and evaporative cooling processes will pull temps back and make snow the likely predominant precip type at onset. The lift will be aided by a strong 50+kt low level jet and an axis of mid level deformation as well. This supports the potential for a potent front end snow thump that could bring a few inches of accumulation right out of the gate Saturday evening. Warm advection will be delayed but closely following the initial surge of moisture with precip transitioning to a rain/snow mix or even fully to rain Saturday evening and night from the southwest. Still high uncertainty on exactly where the transition zone sets up but likely to be aligned somewhere across the northern forecast area by daybreak Sunday. As the low shifts across the forecast area Sunday...much of the forecast area is likely to see a cold rain before the rain/snow line shifts back late day Sunday through early Monday where additional snow accumulations are likely to be in play. A couple of takeaway points with the weekend storm system: - prepare for a high impact winter storm with travel difficulties especially late Saturday through early Monday at times - the eventual location of the transition line will dictate snowfall accumulations and duration of varying precip types - ice is not expected to be a concern...precip should largely be in the form of snow and rain - this has the potential to be the highest impact winter storm to effect central Indiana in terms of potential snowfall accumulations in 3 years - winter weather headlines will likely be needed within the next 24- 36 hours as more model consensus narrows down the details For the remainder of the extended through the first half of next week...expect largely quiet weather in the wake of the weekend storm. Strong high pressure will enable a cold airmass to establish with potential for any snow cover to impact how cold temperatures get. This could have an influence on the next storm system in the pipeline set to impact the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. Trends with that storm support more of a lake cutter with warmer air advecting into central Indiana...but the presence of the residual cold air from earlier in the week could create some icing concerns from that system initially with rain and convection later on. Still several days away from hammering down specifics but something to watch going into next week. Buckle up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 57 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z Euro - The east trend continues. Central Iowa's snow is fading, but east-central is still good....for now. This run is also a bit south. Good storm, but major difference from 12z and 18z wrt amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Looking like 6-8" of cement for here/QC. Just change your screen name to "I Like Where I'm Sitting" lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 06z NAM kinda drier in terms of snowfall amounts over N IL. It backed off 1 inch 18z to 00z, and now another inch or so from 00z to 6z. Here’s Chicago’s Kuchera (Pivotal) NAM snow amounts since 12z yesterday: 12z: 12.8 18z: 11.5 0z: 10.4 6z: 9.6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z HRRR has this happening between 6pm Sat & Midnight Sat night/Sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Most of klot should be good for 7-8, southern counties will taint but will also see heaviest rates at onset, so I think they're ok. ORD looks relatively jackpot and could push 9-10 but overachiever potential feels muted given the limited 4-6 hour window of strong forcing and I don't see more than DAB+ falling outside the initial advection snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3-4" seems like a safe bet for the northern Indy suburbs. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 appears we're still on track for a solid 6"- 10" event at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 06z GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 would be nice to bump the onset up an hour or two here for daylight action, probably not out the question given the nature of advection events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Bullish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z Euro bumped north and a tick wetter for many areas. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z Euro bumped north and a tick wetter for many areas. . good sign. It was at this point on Sunday(24 hrs out from GO time) with the last event things began the drier trends. It'd be nice to see it hold tight into the lead up with today's runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Plumes comfortably averaging 8.5", with 2 now above 12" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Plumes comfortably averaging 8.5", with 2 now above 12" they'll update in an hour or two, definitely a classic 6-10 look and lol @ mbp1 which consistently shows like no qpf which would be a heck of feet to pull of in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: they'll update in an hour or two, definitely a classic 6-10 look and lol @ mbp1 which consistently shows like no qpf which would be a heck of feet to pull of in this setup but in it's defense, it gives us 0.50"..... of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Got the technical discussion out. We've been trying out a shorter initial AFD and then doubling back later. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We won't have the thermals issue in Southeast Michigan but obviously the northern extent of the snow is the worrisome issue. I am wondering if as always it will continue to edge North a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Got the technical discussion out. We've been trying out a shorter initial AFD and then doubling back later. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk this is the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: We won't have the thermals issue in Southeast Michigan but obviously the northern extent of the snow is the worrisome issue. I am wondering if as always it will continue to edge North a bit. 6z NAM ticked north let's keep the trend going today!! I would atleast like 3-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, AWMT30 said: 6z NAM ticked north let's keep the trend going today!! I would atleast like 3-5" The latest runs were good except euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, michsnowfreak said: The latest runs were good except euro. Even the 6z Euro brought a little more snow to the area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro looks good to me. Today is the 740th day since we have not had more than 2.5” of snow in a 24 hour period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/27/2021 at 8:27 PM, CoachLB said: Just coming on shore tonight isn’t it. On 1/27/2021 at 8:30 PM, Chicago Storm said: Friday morning. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DVN going with 7:1-10:1 LSR for the cwa which sound pretty solid. I will say that LSRs could be briefly much higher in the first enhanced band. Wouldn't be surprised to see large flakes with that add up very quickly. Gonna ride the 6-8" call but wouldn't be surprised if totals are more than that, especially a bit northeast of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts