WxDanny Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not typically an optimist with winter storms (GH 1 & 2 notwithstanding), but really am impressed by the overall agreement. My earlier concerns (IMBY) of a mixed mode have quelled. Model Nature finally done torturing us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxDanny said: Not typically an optimist with winter storms (GH 1 & 2 notwithstanding), but really am impressed by the overall agreement. My earlier concerns (IMBY) of a mixed mode have quelled. Model Nature finally done torturing us? That profile picture though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The dumpster fire is in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What about the presence of existing higher ratio snowfall complicating things? That may even blow more than the falling snow, at least until it gets BURIED.That's a good point. Even out by me the stuff on the ground really dried out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: The dumpster fire is in. The GFS is seemingly trying to rival the CRAS on its way out the door. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The GFS is seemingly trying to rival the CRAS on its way out the door.The last recent winter event for the CONUS that had this good agreement in the models at a longer lead time was the December 17th eastern big dog. And wouldn't you know the outlier model for that event was the operational GFS and it was dead wrong. The GFS v16 was right in line with the consensus that ended up being pretty spot on. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The dumpster fire is in. So you're saying the precip is not going to change to rain up to Chicago by Sunday morning? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 When the NBM is performing better than the GFS.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: So you're saying the precip is not going to change to rain up to Chicago by Sunday morning? que up eurythmics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Seems like the theme of tonight is a tick north across the board. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Warm tongue has me slightly worried and lack of moisture depth could mean a long period of FRDZ instead of light snow. 1-3” refresher could easily end up being a glacier creating glaze event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Seems like the theme of tonight is a tick north across the board. Baby steps. Last system really shunted the axis of snow well north of guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS v16 still wetter then the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: . Hoping the intense rates can help with dynamic cooling here and keep me snow longer before rain snow line pushes north. I am not sure how much todays models factor that in but back in the day they always underestimated that I recall a storm back in April 1998ish when the rain/snow line stalled because of convection and the northern part of Peoria county got a surprise foot and the southern only a couple inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6pm seems to be locked as the start time in N/NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Trend tonight has been a bit more rain than earlier runs for those west. As such, I'm gonna have a conservative first call of just 3" for Iowa City as I expect to lose a good 0.2-0.3 QPF to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS 16 continues the north trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Tonight's 0z Canadian still favoring tracking along/near the Ohio River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Too far north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Annnd GEM is north with the highest snowfall as well. Looks like this run group found a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS 16 continues the north trend Kind of noise level, as it was a bit south west and a bit north east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 While we've been analyzing the thermals, there is a new unfriendly trend for Iowa. Some models are now veering the heavy precip farther east into Illinois and bypassing much of Iowa. The UK has been consistently one of the snowiest models for central to eastern Iowa. Tonight's run cut out a huge chunk of our precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Too far north Even with that run we still get a decent front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: I am not sure how much todays models factor that in but back in the day they always underestimated that I recall a storm back in April 1998ish when the rain/snow line stalled because of convection and the northern part of Peoria county got a surprise foot and the southern only a couple inches This is definitely one of those situations where we could see an extreme gradient across our county. Well actually that's all the time. Lol. Who am I kidding. I74 is always the cutoff for whatever reason. I'm definitely glad I live on north side of Peoria but would feel better if I was in like Dunlap, Princeville, or Chillicothe. Ha. 03z rap looked nice. Kept it snow 22z-05z roughly. But if this trends anymore north we're screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Hoosiers RAP has 6-8” down by midnight Sta night/Sun morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The #1 CIPS analog tonight is March 8-9, 1999, which produced 9" at ORD. March 5, 2013 is #6 analog and GHDII is #11.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 53 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: I am not sure how much todays models factor that in but back in the day they always underestimated that I recall a storm back in April 1998ish when the rain/snow line stalled because of convection and the northern part of Peoria county got a surprise foot and the southern only a couple inches Maybe April 10, 1997? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: The #1 CIPS analog tonight is March 8-9, 1999, which produced 9" at ORD. March 5, 2013 is #6 analog and GHDII is #11. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk That March 1999 storm has been at #1 every time I have looked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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