mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What's with little wave ahead/north into MN that looks to hook up with it? Gives Wi and MN some decent snows. How might this impact us positively or negatively? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm not at ground zero anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, mimillman said: 10:1 Gotta love NAM clown maps!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Suggests rates of 2-3”/hr on leading edge thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3km NAM...and still snowing for many areas.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Oz NAM total precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 One thing I am noticing with this system is after the WAA snows ahead of the main low, seems like the deformation band falls apart pretty quickly. I know this initial push was looking to be the bigger show of the two but seems like there will not be much after that. Regardless ir looks to be a hard hit really fast. Hoping the intense rates can help with dynamic cooling here and keep me snow longer before rain snow line pushes north. Hi res definitely suggesting that. Globals not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: One thing I am noticing with this system is after the WAA snows ahead of the main low, seems like the deformation band falls apart pretty quickly. I know this initial push was looking to be the bigger show of the two but seems like there will not be much after that. Regardless ir looks to be a hard hit really fast. Hoping the intense rates can help with dynamic cooling here and keep me snow longer before rain snow line pushes north. Hi res definitely suggesting that. Globals not as much. Was never supposed to be anything but that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Was never supposed to be anything but that Some models were showing lingering snow well through Sunday before albeit lighter in nature. Probably has to do with low weakening and transferring to the coast for the nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Some models were showing lingering snow well through Sunday before albeit lighter in nature. Probably has to do with low weakening and transferring to the coast for the nor'easter. That still is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM/3 km NAM still more bullish on wind gusts than other models. Nice zone of higher 925 mb winds. Here's the 3 km gust product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM/3 km NAM still more bullish on wind gusts than other models. Nice zone of higher 925 mb winds. Here's the 3 km gust product Could definitely see some some whiteout like conditions if you got those mixing down with 1-2 in/hr rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Could definitely see some some whiteout like conditions if you got those mixing down with 1-2 in/hr rates. Fo sho. It would be low vis/near whiteout even with more modest winds if those 2"+ per hour rates materialize near the leading edge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 These winds could make for quite the storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 30 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Gotta love NAM clown maps!!! This solution actually shows my area some love. Fascinating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM quicker with the weakening of the primary as compared to the NAM. Really screws our Ohio members over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: This solution actually shows my area some love. Fascinating Ikr. Its amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Two of the WRF models show CR getting some ice before changing to snow, the WRF-NSSL shows CR in the ice for quite a few hours, the only model showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's going to be a nail biter over here Saturday afternoon. The NAMs have warmed a bit more, which now puts Cedar Rapids on the southern edge with a bit of mix at the start. The HRRR, on the other hand, is colder and changes the precip to snow before reaching Iowa City. I'm hoping it works out like the storm in late December when I received 8.5 inches, with 5.4" in three hours early in the event. That storm also had borderline thermals. Models were wobbling on the fence. It was unclear if Cedar Rapids would get 8" or 3". However, there was a clear model winner (HRRR) and a clear loser (NAMs). The NAMs insisted the warm air aloft would push sleet up through eastern Iowa. The HRRR insisted the snow would hold strong down to Cedar Rapids, at least. The HRRR was absolutely correct. First few hours of the HRRR are in range. This would clearly be much better for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City and also Peoria. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Fo sho. It would be low vis/near whiteout even with more modest winds if those 2"+ per hour rates materialize near the leading edge. I haven’t seen it mentioned, and I’m not as savvy as the rest here, but is the b-word in the cards for this setup with these winds? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, btcs31 said: I haven’t seen it mentioned, and I’m not as savvy as the rest here, but is the b-word in the cards for this setup with these winds? No, but as mentioned earlier, some whiteout conditions and very dangerous driving conditions are almost a certainty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, btcs31 said: I haven’t seen it mentioned, and I’m not as savvy as the rest here, but is the b-word in the cards for this setup with these winds? Could get close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, btcs31 said: I haven’t seen it mentioned, and I’m not as savvy as the rest here, but is the b-word in the cards for this setup with these winds? I don't think so. As mentioned, the NAM is on the stronger side with winds. If it's too high, the actual outcome could be more like some 30-35 mph gusts. I suppose there could be a relatively brief period where it gets close with the winds and visibility, but close doesn't count and it needs to be at least 3 hours of frequent gusts 35+ mph / <1/4 mile visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Have to say have worries on this one as well for snow totals. Clear issues for Northern OH/IN with warmth at the surface & all that moisture flow starts slowly bleeding out into that coastal storm. Much more confidence in the storm off the coast than this one for the weekend living up to expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It's going to be a nail biter over here Saturday afternoon. The NAMs have warmed a bit more, which now puts Cedar Rapids on the southern edge with a bit of mix at the start. The HRRR, on the other hand, is colder and changes the precip to snow before reaching Iowa City. I'm hoping it works out like the storm in late December when I received 8.5 inches, with 5.4" in three hours early in the event. That storm also had borderline thermals. Models were wobbling on the fence. It was unclear if Cedar Rapids would get 8" or 3". However, there was a clear model winner (HRRR) and a clear loser (NAMs). The NAMs insisted the warm air aloft would push sleet up through eastern Iowa. The HRRR insisted the snow would hold strong down to Cedar Rapids, at least. The HRRR was absolutely correct. First few hours of the HRRR are in range. This would clearly be much better for Cedar Rapids/Iowa City and also Peoria. I'm definitely worried about that warm nose here. Shouldn't be much of an issue for you. Precip is going to be intense esp on leading edge so banking on that wet bulbing temps near freezing and keeping snow around for a bit before the low gets closer and warmer air inevitably pushes north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Have to say have worries on this one as well for snow totals. Clear issues for Northern OH/IN with warmth at the surface & all that moisture flow starts slowly bleeding out into that coastal storm. Much more confidence in the storm off the coast than this one for the weekend living up to expectations Not to mention some of the op solutions I've seen (looking at you, NAM) are just outright laughable for NE IN...like, way beyond climatology and approaching, or in some cases shattering, all-time snow records. Never say never, I suppose, but ensembles showing a swath of 5-7" is far more realistic for this area than anything over 10". I don't regret not issuing a snow map today. But hey, if this thing ends up overachieving, I'm here for it all the same! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We didn't verify blizzard conditions on Nov 25-26 2018 storm with much higher winds than this one has progged even taking the top end guidance (the NAMs). We'll probably work it into our messaging the potential for brief whiteout conditions out in open rural areas given the rates and wind, but don't think this will reach blizzard warning criteria. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: We didn't verify blizzard conditions on Nov 25-26 2018 storm with much higher winds than this one has progged even taking the top end guidance (the NAMs). We'll probably work it into our messaging the potential for brief whiteout conditions out in open rural areas given the rates and wind, but don't think this will reach blizzard warning criteria. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk What about the presence of existing higher ratio snowfall complicating things? That may even blow more than the falling snow, at least until it gets BURIED. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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