tuanis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty sweet consensus, no doubt. Crazy evolution. I can't really remember a storm emerging into the plains, blowing up a huge precip shield in nearly all directions, then quickly weakening/starting a transfer to the coast. It all seems to happen so quickly as modeled. Wonder if next week's system will finally break through that "block"? Kind of reminds me of watching a Florida-bound hurricane race under a stout Bermuda high. When will it turn?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro is a dream for Chicagoland. Rippage for hours, lake enhancement, no p type issues. Loving the consensus, hoping we finally have a well modeled storm that overperforms 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 At least this snowblower choker snow falls on the weekend. But still significant impact for anyone out in it. Or even if you're not out in it, there's gonna be some duress to the power grid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 A bit off topic, but totally related to this system while watching the medium-to-long-range evolve on the models. Quite a pattern change that has taken place in our part of the world. Delayed but definitely not denied. February looks kind of sexy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Pretty sweet consensus, no doubt. Crazy evolution. I can't really remember a storm emerging into the plains, blowing up a huge precip shield in nearly all directions, then quickly weakening/starting a transfer to the coast. It all seems to happen so quickly as modeled. Wonder if next week's system will finally break through that "block"? Kind of reminds me of watching a Florida-bound hurricane race under a stout Bermuda high. When will it turn??It's a relatively common occurrence to have a primary in the Midwest and eastern Lakes and transfer to a secondary that blows up near the East Coast. This one is a more interesting evolution I'd say than the more common occurrence. Some of the recent decades big events in the subforum did go on to produce big dog amounts in the east, like January 05, Feb 07, GHD II. What's interesting to me about this one is that the block is over Hudson Bay, which is very far southwest, so it forces that interesting evolution under the block. The cutoff happens south of us on Sunday-Sunday night when it slows down and slides east. Next week's system does have the potential to reshuffle the deck so to speak. It looks like what could happen is the very west based block could give way and then the upper low from the Midwest system could link up with a PV lobe dislodged by a spike of the EPO region ridging. This evolution would then force the block to reorient near Greenland, which is a more classic position for the NAO block and lead to the -EPO, -PNA, -AO, more easterly -NAO, which is a really good look for more fun times ahead. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Euro is a dream for Chicagoland. Rippage for hours, lake enhancement, no p type issues. Loving the consensus, hoping we finally have a well modeled storm that overperforms We'll see here shortly with the 00z EPS, if we keep or increase the ensemble clustering, that suggests a stable, higher than average confidence forecast, on top of the overall remarkable consistency of the 00z op models and other ensemble systems. If we keep this up for the model cycles through tomorrow night, I might be the one issuing the watch for LOT, as I'm starting midnight shifts with MTF. Edit: And here it is. The clustering of almost all members within the ensemble mean surface low at 84 hours says it all. While there's still time for changes, hard not to get excited. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CLE robbed again but a nice rainer with tons of moisture next weekend at 44F (At least on EURO ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 More from the 00z EPS: Individual member snowfall and 3"+ and 6"+ probs [/url] 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: More from the 00z EPS: Individual member snowfall and 3"+ and 6"+ probs Stout signal on the 6+ Pretty phenomenal clustering. Like you said, hard not to get excited around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks good, minimal run 2 run model variance continues with any minor outliers baby stepping into the fold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 ^ Wakes up. Wonders about overnight runs. Sees this. All good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ Wakes up. Wonders about overnight runs. Sees this. All good. Prays To the snow gods one more time.. Goes back to bed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 4:01 AM, A-L-E-K said: 3" final call with the dampening spinner terrible call 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I love how it shows a greater chance of 3" in Cinci than Indy. Isn't Cinci further south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: terrible call pin it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: terrible call 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6z guidance has held well.NAM has gotten into further range now and is showing the goods too, though still snowing a bit.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Everything is just a tad too for north for me to get something big. I'll a 2"-4" thump any day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6Z NAM puts me at ground zero. I'll enjoy it for 2 more hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z guidance has held well. NAM has gotten into further range now and is showing the goods too, though still snowing a bit... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Would sampling of our system occur by 0Z or 12Z Friday? Or earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Would sampling of our system occur by 0Z or 12Z Friday? Or earlierTomorrow morning.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I don't need it sampled. I'm good. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Let the game of plumes begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: If...if this plays out as guidance has been showing, it’ll be the first time an event was nailed down this well several days out in eons. . From KLOT Quote Global model guidance remains in remarkable agreement regarding the synoptic-scale trends with this system--somewhat surprising at this range and given the lack of land-based sampling until Friday morning. Ensemble envelopes continue to narrow, with something like 250-300 miles or less separating the 80+ individual ECMWF and GFS ensemble member`s low positions by midnight Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Think this system should be more enjoyable than the most recent one with what looks like very nice rates for a period. That should be fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Would love to lose that piece of energy on the backside of the W Atlantic trough that hangs back in Quebec. Real culprit in having the storm fall apart as it heads east. But, as usual, what I want and what will be are not going to align. 2-4" with maybe a bit more if that lake helps out is my early call. We'll have to watch out for models underestimating the amount of dry air on the northern flank though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Plume wars show approx 6.5 at ORD. 3 show above 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6z EPS Mean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: At what point does @beavis1729 go full Cornholio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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