Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Redmorninglight said: Good luck up there inland peeps. I just can’t see a way we win down here with this one. That’s why I reeling over losing tomorrow. That one felt like ours. “Southern slider” for south coastal snow weenies. Have not had an inch of snow in almost 48 months. That's just brutal, I would have moved by now. On the bright side at least you get some T-storms.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: That's just brutal, I would have moved by now. On the bright side at least you get some T-storms.... They got the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: They got the beach! I'd rather drive there in the summer for a couple days and enjoy a full winter up here... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ralphie stop eating crayons 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: They got the beach! The beach is where snow turns to rain, thunderstorms go to die and warm spring days turn to mist and fog. Don’t get me wrong the beach is great but super disappointing from a weather perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That 993 low west of Philly. Otherwise known as the Lancaster low, good for crops bad for sledding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain. It may be right too?? These models may be showing the block breaking down the flow too progressive and the storm develops too late and gets whisked out to sea. It is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain. They're shit models again and have always been shit! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ralphie stop eating crayons 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It’s all simply guess work, hope and conjecture at this point folks... Just let it play out...you’ll go crazy trying to figure it out from the numerical models prior to Saturday! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Hahaha I get it guys, this place sucks for snow. We average 15”/yr so this drought is pretty bad. I grew up in Morris Co but have been down here since ‘95. So basically I grew up in the snow drought years of the 80s and 90s up there and moved here where it’s worse. I love it here tho. Surfing, fishing, kayaking and hunting. It’s pretty sweet. I normally head to Vermont and Colorado every winter to snowboard but can’t due to Covid. I think 95 and N &W look good for this one. Wish I could chase up north with my family but you know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot. I had a feeling you come in with the ICON. Please stop with that nonsense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I had a feeling you come in with the ICON. Please stop with that nonsense It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well. The ICON is awful. Period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, hazwoper said: The ICON is awful. Period The ICON should never be used in a professional forecast. I use it at most to confirm a trend from the rest of the model suite. As a stand alone solution it is completely useless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot. This is what I said at 10 on another site: I hate Miller B storms I have seen us get screwed many times!!! I’m still concerned about a progressive flow that doesn’t slow the storm down to develop or a combo progressive flat zonal flow it can still happen. I think IF this were to happen we start seeing a backwards trend starting at 0z into 12z tomorrow. The big runs start Friday IMO. sounds like the primary is too far north and block doesn’t hold the warming off the ocean and south welp it’s probably the likely out come now. I never trust storms rolling off the Pacific and cruising across the country towards a block that’s lifting out. Opens the door to the warm surge!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 0 for 2...GFS is brief thump to rain then dryslot SE PA. SECS. GFS has been consistent asf. I will take any snow,but the euro is clearly alone on an island right now with the MECS/HECS thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Typical awful Miller B on the GFS for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 0 for 2...GFS is brief thump to rain then dryslot SE PA. SECS. GFS has been consistent asf 90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out. I’m not staying up for the Euro. Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!! I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England. Until the Euro shows this, I won’t buy the GFS completely. GFS never great with thermals either. To its credit, though, the GFS has kept showing this slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Typical awful Miller B on the GFS for these parts. 2-4" here over 30 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 As noted..0 gfs was brutal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England. Mid Atlantic fairs better then we do on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: 90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out. I’m not staying up for the Euro. Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!! I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen. Tom Brady is starting the drive on his own 20 to start the 4th qtr down 24-17. Never count Brady out even when the Euro is steadfast on HECS/BECS . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: Mid Atlantic fairs better then we do on gfs True, meaning it is not so typical. Something could still be off with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Mid Atlantic fairs better then we do on gfs Yep, by the time the WAA stuff gets here the block and confluence and associated arctic hp are pulling N. So we get little WAA then the coastal is too late to develop. CMC is about to cash the check on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Mid Atlantic does better if the GFS is to be believed because they score a thump with initial WAA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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