ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: If it goes down like the euro it's going to be rough in the early going take xtra xanax, snows in DC for like 24hrs before it makes it up here lots of Virga, then the mix line flirts with I95 not too long after that. You paint a sour picture. I'm happy with it. Can it screw up, yes. Can it get better, yes. At least we're dealing with a real storm at this point and getting closer.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The OP has done as expected and made the north move and so much so it's an I95'er, it can stop now on to the ensembles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nuked. Verbatim probably some mixing issues but I can deal with it and also not much room for error. Can't hug the coast too much closer or we see a lot of mixing and rain. The clown map sure is pretty though with that foot maximum over Ralph and I's houses. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: The OP has done as expected and made the north move and so much so it's an I95'er, it can stop now on to the ensembles. Too norther too fast. I didt like that large a jump but we don't control what's going to happen. Knew it was coming tho based off 6z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Nuked. Verbatim probably some mixing issues but I can deal with it and also not much room for error. Can't hug the coast too much closer or we see a lot of mixing and rain. The clown map sure is pretty though with that foot maximum over Ralph and I's houses. I mean, a foot is no joke but the way h5 played out would have assumed higher amts more widespread. I wonder what made 96 and 2016 such big events? Even this one looks to stall and has an excellent moisture feed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sleet will mix in but when doesn't it in large storms? Very true. PdII had like 6 hours of sleet if I remember correctly and I still ended up with around 20". We may have had a hour or two of pingers in Jan 16, I don't remember tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Too norther too fast. I didt like that large a jump but we don't control what's going to happen. Knew it was coming tho based off 6z eps. Shhhh we gotta be positive here about all except the east crowd in the bullseye day 5 go to your happy place 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I mean, a foot is no joke but the way h5 played out would have assumed higher amts more widespread. I wonder what made 96 and 2016 such big events? Even this one looks to stall and has an excellent moisture feed If I remember correctly, Jan 16 was like this, I don't think the models started printing out insane totals, like 20" plus, until we got inside 96 hours. I could be misremembering though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Very true. PdII had like 6 hours of sleet if I remember correctly and I still ended up with around 20". We may have had a hour or two of pingers in Jan 16, I don't remember tbh I did, I know that. But I'll easily trade that for a nice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Don't get me wrong....I would take a 4-6" event and be thrilled. Just wondering why qpf didn't match up. Then again, that is usually one of the last things to get fine tuned, so I should know better and answered my own question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It's so hard to get snow on the coast. This storm sits for 48 hrs an we get 2" lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Im starting to get interested in this storm but very skeptical also, that Damn storm in Dec. had me 15-20" till 48 hrs. then started backing off and ended up with 10" which was great by Dec. standards. Lets get this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It's so hard to get snow on the coast. This storm sits for 48 hrs an we get 2" lol After spending some stints in east Monmouth I keep having to stop myself from saying "we" bullseye knowing the perils of the east crowd. I feel your pain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The OP lies on the eastern western edge of the ensemble suite for some better news 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It's so hard to get snow on the coast. This storm sits for 48 hrs an we get 2" lol Ask RedSky for a xanax and greenskeeper for a weenie and you'll be ok... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: The OP lies on the eastern edge of the ensemble suite for some better news did you mean OP is on western edge? if the ensembles are further west that gives us more mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: did you mean OP is on western edge? if the ensembles are further west that gives us more mixing Yes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Need a more consolidated h500 signature. Also, a tighter closed upper low. Would help to eliminate this "blotchy" precip distribution we're seeing. Even with a messier look, models still show the potential for 12"+. If we can get pieces to come together crisper... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Im liking the the the long term discussion in Mt Hollys AFD header, which reads, "This could be a classic" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update. Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the low, but even with the minor differences, could result in significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of guidance. Timing: There are still some large differences between models with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday, depending on how progressive the system is. Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region. If the track is further south, as some of the operational models are trending, it could be more snow. Precipitation amounts: We won`t have a better idea on precipitation amounts through this event until at least Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I love how the 18z GFS bypasses our region for the best snow. Still have the Euro on board, and the bullseye could easily change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Hoping to see maybe one flake down in south Jersey with this one. If that did happene we would beat the December storm by..... you guessed it 1 flake On the real I know thermals and precip are the last to get figured out but I’m at odds to what even root for to get a decent storm down here. Quicker phase? Earlier capture? Or just stronger WAA snows and accept the rain from any coastal. Regardless should be a great storm for most of the area! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, coastal front said: Hoping to see maybe one flake down in south Jersey with this one. If that did happene we would beat the December storm by..... you guessed it 1 flake On the real I know thermals and precip are the last to get figured out but I’m at odds to what even root for to get a decent storm down here. Quicker phase? Earlier capture? Or just stronger WAA snows and accept the rain from any coastal. Regardless should be a great storm for most of the area! At ACY your best bet is the initial WAA probably... but there are still some transfer scenarios further south with a slightly later capture that could put you inline for some CCB snow. Note I am personally a bit skeptical of the ULL-driven post backside snows, but that could be another option (although any WAA snow would probably be rained out by that point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I would be very surprised if the euro held as-is for the next 4 days. That is probably the extreme solution. Doubt it folds completely either obviously but cmon, be realistic. We aren't going to see that consistent textbook prog for 4 straight days. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 18z Eps ... Some members a bit too tucked but overall very nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 18z Eps ... Some members a bit too tucked but overall very nice! Plenty of monster lows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 18z Eps ... Some members a bit too tucked but overall very nice! That 993 low west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Good luck up there inland peeps. I just can’t see a way we win down here with this one. That’s why I reeling over losing tomorrow. That one felt like ours. “Southern slider” for south coastal snow weenies. Have not had an inch of snow in almost 48 months. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Redmorninglight said: Good luck up there inland peeps. I just can’t see a way we win down here with this one. That’s why I reeling over losing tomorrow. That one felt like ours. “Southern slider” for south coastal snow weenies. Have not had an inch of snow in almost 48 months. I feel your pain man! I’d take an inch and run at this point. Still a ways out but I do think even we will see at least some flakes at the onset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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