Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: With how south the Euro is currently, I actually don't mind where we sit on the GFS. If it trends just 50-75 miles south towards the euro, this area gets absolutely pummeled. I'd still take this as is for sure though even with the mixing issues. I would be sweating bullets if I lived south of say the Bel Air latitude in MD. Im not even comfortable here (never was fully) but there is wiggle room and we've still yet to get bullseyed. I dont mind where we sit attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, the usual N trend with these types in Nina years has commenced. For the other sub, Brady just threw a bomb on first down...made the 2-pt conversion. 24-17...6:35 left in the 3rd qtr. The lead is slipping away. Live look in at the mid atlantic forum after the 12z gfs: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I would be sweating bullets if I lived south of say the Bel Air latitude in MD. Im not even comfortable here (never was fully) but there is wiggle room and we've still yet to get bullseyed. I dont mind where we sit attm. Totally agree, I think we will likely mix up here, almost every big storm does at a point. It will be how much we mix that determines if this is one to remember or not. But I also like where we sit at the moment for a winter storm warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Miller B/C storms like to jump east. It's why I wouldn't mind some NW and amped solutions right now. Also, you can't forget alot of times eastern PA/Western Jersey is where the "shadow" effect occurs in these events. Kinda saw that on the GFS. The coastal forms well east and all the overrunning precip gets choked out and we are in the subsidence zone. Just stuff to watch out for. It's only 4.5 days away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Oh man the CMC is a textbook hit for these parts. Storm stalls just off the cape may coast and drifts ENE. No real precip type issues for anyone. Widespread 8-12". Add it to the scattershot of solutions but this is a great look. And I think it's a bit underdone on the precip... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Seems like this isn’t the storm for those hoping for 2-3”/hr rates and thundersnow...but if you like steady light to moderate snow for days, you’ll love this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I would be sweating bullets if I lived south of say the Bel Air latitude in MD. Im not even comfortable here (never was fully) but there is wiggle room and we've still yet to get bullseyed. I dont mind where we sit attm. Tom Brady kept the ball and runs 50 yards for a touchdown from shotgun on a 4th and 15, the crowd in stunned disbelief 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The Ukie caved! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Seems like this isn’t the storm for those hoping for 2-3”/hr rates and thundersnow...but if you like steady light to moderate snow for days, you’ll love this storm. While that could be the case, I believe it's too early to know the dynamics in play. I think there very well could be a nice CCB when the coastal forms that the models just aren't picking up on yet...Not to mention warmer than slightly normal waters in the atlantic, I think the coastal has a good chance of amping up quicker than progged especially if it stalls.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: The Ukie caved! maps? Only out to 60 on my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: maps? Only out to 60 on my site. oops wrong model sorry bro 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It's going to cave just wait for it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: While that could be the case, I believe it's too early to know the dynamics in play. I think there very well could be a nice CCB when the coastal forms that the models just aren't picking up on yet... It all depends on how much energy swings around the base of the trough. If there’s a lot, the low tucks into the coast and that CCB does form. If the energy is just loose and all over the place, the initial thump may be nice but Monday and Tuesday’s snow will be pretty light for the most part as the ULL swings through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It's 300 miles north in the midwest this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 One thing is that the ukie is way slower than the other models. Precip doesn't get going here until 00z monday. Other models have us starting 18z Sunday at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ukie is similar to last nights euro imo just a bit further N. strung out transfer so we don't really get a WAA thump and the coastal doesn't really get going until well offshore so it's just 24 hours of light snow lol not a great solution but shows the way we can fail as lvblizz explained above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ukie Like the CMC but lil weaker but trending 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 NAVGEM is a blockbuster fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Yeah Navy CCB's the entirety of EPA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: NAVGEM is a blockbuster fwiw That's a red flag! Navgem leads the way in these set ups. Throw up your buns! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Top 3 CIPS analogs off that 12z GFS run: 1. 2015 Juno 2. Blizzard of 2016 3. Blizzard of 1996 (The King) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro run is amazing. How can it be better? Phase that northern piece in earlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 Everybody wins on the Euro! Solid foot or so for most of us. And there is potential for it to be even more epic too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'll let it all play out but this is the best run in years IMO... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LVblizzard said: Everybody wins on the Euro! Solid foot or so for most of us. And there is potential for it to be even more epic too. The coast is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Live look in at the mid atlantic forum after the 12z gfs: Not saying they won't get crushed but after the last 5 debacles they were bullseyed and popping champagne corks 2 days ago. Wayyy too early. Still too early to be end zone dancing for DC to Philly tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Sleet will mix in but when doesn't it in large storms? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 If it goes down like the euro it's going to be rough in the early going take xtra xanax, snows in DC for like 24hrs before it makes it up here lots of Virga, then the mix line flirts with I95 not too long after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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