Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Just got this from family "Cecily says its 400 miles off the coast of California ade we will know better by Sunday if we can get some snow" lol Think family has been hitting the sauce....none of this. You made me think I was losing so I watched it again...nah. https://6abc.com/weather/accuweather-drying-out-tonight-coldest-air-of-the-season-late-week/49644/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Interesting we are locking in the track and snow maps 5-6 days out. ride hard with diamond hands or this bird flies again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Think family has been hitting the sauce....none of this. You made me think I was losing so I watched it again...nah. https://6abc.com/weather/accuweather-drying-out-tonight-coldest-air-of-the-season-late-week/49644/ I been told a fabrication probably on purpose to rain on my parade! They are drinking wine too maybe they heard it at 6? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: I been told a fabrication probably on purpose to rain on my parade! They are drinking wine too maybe they heard it at 6? I think they were F'ing w/you....wine probably edged them on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I think they were F'ing w/you....wine probably edged them on. I promised snow this week and didn't deliver as much as .10" I'm in real trouble if nothing happens next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Who said earlier the ECM isn't flippy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Who said earlier the ECM isn't flippy? It was certainly Dr. No tonight, at least for our region. DC does well. But still a lot of uncertainty over just how and where this forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 .10" is not going to do it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Super whiff for us...that was a horrible run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: Super whiff for us...that was a horrible run. I would never hear the end of it with relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro does some funky stupid crazy east then south movement off the coast like its slammed with confluence when it isn't I'm going to call this a bogus run onto the ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Step away from the ledges the OP was an outlier to it's ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ensembles improved and North of 12z breath relief 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch. The ensembles did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Almost all guidance is in sync with low pressure redeveloping just to the South of Hatteras near Ocracoke. Then they diverge thereafter with the strength, depth, and location of the 2nd sw diving into the back of the trof. To phase in time and capture is the real question and difference between the slp headed NE/ENE and being a minor/moderate event or drifting N and tucking into the DelMarVa on its slow journey NNE delivering a significant. Should be able to muster a warning level event out of this for SE PA at the very least. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6z NAVGEM doesn't get snow into SE PA until Tuesday AM via the pivot and deformation band. Hardly any WAA stuff...just a stalled crawler N along the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Eps is further north than the 0z euro and long duration 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Almost all guidance is in sync with low pressure redeveloping just to the South of Hatteras near Ocracoke. Then they diverge thereafter with the strength, depth, and location of the 2nd sw diving into the back of the trof. To phase in time and capture is the real question and difference between the slp headed NE/ENE and being a minor/moderate event or drifting N and tucking into the DelMarVa on its slow journey NNE delivering a significant. Should be able to muster a warning level event out of this for SE PA at the very least. Agreed Steve....more likely than not hence NWS high % chances this far out....that said I expect a slow arrival due to mighty low DPs....plus I suspect for the coastal plain some mixing issues and even back a bit NW of the fall line. Looks a lot to me like a typical storm with mixing in the City and SJ and increasing amounts N and W, Sort of like storms of my youth 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is further north than the 0z euro and long duration Yepper. The op is going to cave at 12z....Mark my words. The 6z eps are tucked really tight to the coast. Almost too N and too tucked but verbatim is an almost perfect track for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 This thing is going to move N and E in today’s runs. I think we are in a good spot. I may be a tad south even for r/s but I will take my chances. Just don’t need it to tuck back into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yepper. The op is going to cave at 12z....Mark my words. The 6z eps are tucked really tight to the coast. Almost too N and too tucked but verbatim is an almost perfect track for this area. Yep big jump on the eps last night. Im way more worried about rain/mixing then I am suppression. Regardless things look great for some snow at least. Details tbd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yep big jump on the eps last night. Im way more worried about rain/mixing then I am suppression. Regardless things look great for some snow at least. Details tbd. Tom Brady is starting the drive on the opponent 49 yard line down 24-9 with 7 mins left in the 3rd. Lots of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 We've yet to be bullseyed here. We r losing that cursed time frame by 0z tonight/6z tomorrow where you dont want to be "in the zone". This has all the familiar earmarks of a good storm here. I like where we are sitting attm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Did some research and the last time we had a similar setup to this during a Niña that ultimately ended up producing was.......January 1996 Eta: wrt big closed ull rolling thru the midwest/OV, transfer, ultimate capture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Icon is a pretty good result but it doesn't stall the storm out for days... Thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Winter storm warning level event. 4-8" for all. I would definitely take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12Z GFS cuts the primary a bit farther north and thus we thump to quick rain by 0Z Monday. Lets see if the transfer is better later, but this run doesn't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Coastal actually comes together.. but pretty messy transfer. 95 and immidiate suburbs go from thump to mix to rain back over to snow. Actually a pretty crazy long duration storm. Starts a little after 12z Sunday and by 06z Tuesday snow is finally beginning to taper off. Honestly not that bad of a run for us... Nothing 'historic' but that still looks like a fun storm. Overall I give that a "not bad". A 50-75 mile shift towards the euro and many of us are sitting pretty. As Ralph says, we take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 That backside northern vort was wayyyy slower this run. Captures it further east. Lets be real, these storms favor SNE typically. But still a decent run for northern and eastern sections. So much CF too on the models with them unable to figure out the phasing. This is gonna be a headache up until hour 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Newman said: That backside northern vort was wayyyy slower this run. Captures it further east. Lets be real, these storms favor SNE typically. But still a decent run for northern and eastern sections. So much CF too on the models with them unable to figure out the phasing. This is gonna be a headache up until hour 0. With how south the Euro is currently, I actually don't mind where we sit on the GFS. If it trends just 50-75 miles south towards the euro, this area gets absolutely pummeled. I'd still take this as is for sure though even with the mixing issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: That backside northern vort was wayyyy slower this run. Captures it further east. Lets be real, these storms favor SNE typically. But still a decent run for northern and eastern sections. So much CF too on the models with them unable to figure out the phasing. This is gonna be a headache up until hour 0. Yep, the usual N trend with these types in Nina years has commenced. For the other sub, Brady just threw a bomb on first down...made the 2-pt conversion. 24-17...6:35 left in the 3rd qtr. The lead is slipping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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