Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I see a tick at best not a screaming Ticks mean everything at this range. Especially with this CCB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Newman said: Ticks mean everything at this range. Especially with this CCB A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Lets just sit back and let this unfold were all not getting 2' out of this its gonna be where the CCB sets up as stated numerous times, this has been a very exciting week and its finally here Best of Luck to all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NAM was a hair W with slp but precip max actually trended wider and farther extension s and e vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 My god I hope the Icon can be right for once 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage. IMO, the NAM 500mb changes were not miniscule or a "tick". It appears small, but just look at how much more those heights back into the coast from 6z. Plus the trough is trying to dig deeper as well. It's not much, you're right. But considering the NAM was well on the east side of guidance, all I was looking for was for it to come back west. Which it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Last WXSIM with 6z data before storm time - has total snow of 14" to 23" Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind east around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Tonight: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a mix of snow, sleet, and rain likely after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 16. Wind east around 11 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely. Breezy. High 33. Wind chill around 20. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 8 to 12 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Breezy. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind north-northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3KM NAM looks like trash. Keeps the good stuff in NJ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MPotter_WX said: 3KM NAM looks like trash. Keeps the good stuff in NJ 3k and 12k couldn't be any more different for the Lehigh Valley and Berks. 6-12" on the 3k, 16-24" on the 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 People..I can’t say this again. always discount the model that gives your street the least amount of snow. Ride hard the snowiest models. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said: 3KM NAM looks like trash. Keeps the good stuff in NJ There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend. Watch the NAM be right!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 MY FINAL CALL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Animal said: Watch the NAM be right!! The NAM giveth the NAM taketh away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A few miles is noise imo right now. We will see this across guidance next 18 hrs. Unless there is some unanimous trend I think we are locked in. The bullseye is the only question. And then u are talking the diff between 12" and 24". Those kuchera maps are garbage. Your noise just took away a foot of my snow! It's never easy being a weenie in these parts. Hopefully just a NAM hiccup and not a trend. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, JTA66 said: Your noise just took away a foot of my snow! It's never easy being a weenie in these parts. Hopefully just a NAM hiccup and not a trend. Everyone last night said ignore the NAM its trash. So yeah, do as you wish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westielover Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Super fine flakes blowing around Brownstown PA. right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Icon has been pretty consistent the last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There's your classic miller B shaft. Lets hope its wrong and over focusing on the convection offshore. It is basically alone so its higher resolution could actually be hindering finding the larger scale true low center here? Asking for a friend. Idk looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Wow Rgem Still snowing pretty good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Wow Rgem Still snowing pretty good Congrats Lehigh valley & nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Idk looks fine to me Well thats the 6z for starters. And secondly you've been around and know as well as anyone the SLR ratio maps are usually much closer to the truth than the over inflated Kuchera maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 ICON slr....very nice and more realistic. We take: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyGeekGirl Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 50 minutes ago, Animal said: People..I can’t say this again. always discount the model that gives your street the least amount of snow. Ride hard the snowiest models. As someone who lives in NJ right across from Philly, I fully support this recommendation. Thank you for your wise words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Rgem further se than 06z. I don't see any reason for panic or concern unless you live in like delaware or south jersey. Other than that everyone looks good for a foot still at least... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs29 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I live directly across the river from Philly in Jersey and have no idea.. expecting 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON slr....very nice and more realistic. We take: Sorta goes with my thinking..except move the greens further sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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