Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, mattinpa said: But I think you have to go to the other models when they are all so different than the NAM. I really don’t expect only 3-6” here. Neither do I. I set my bar at 1'....I feel like Ji now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Welcome to Macungie the new Tahoe of the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 1:58 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: That euro was insane. Best widespread look since 96 Nam a disaster!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Pottsville most likely but still got time, gonna wait for 6z eps and 12z NAM then leave. Rgem was unrealistically tucked earlier it just looks like an insane euro like run. I’ve bet against the other eps my last two chases and it burnt me badly If the NAM keeps fizzling out the CCB before it gets to PA, I’d strongly consider northern NJ. Maybe somewhere like Hackettstown or Wayne. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Neither do I. I set my bar at 1'....I feel like Ji now. So you do feel that the NAM is too low. We can definitely agree then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, LVblizzard said: If the NAM keeps fizzling out the CCB before it gets to PA, I’d strongly consider northern NJ. Maybe somewhere like Hackettstown or Wayne. That's what the ICON says as well. Instead of the stall near OC MD it is justnEast of Cape May. The NAM isn't alone here. The RGEM is more the outlier than anything else tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Icon shifted the heavy axis south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Animal said: Nam a disaster!! Ya Just now, mattinpa said: So you do feel that the NAM is too low. We can definitely agree then. Big storms have many models. see my final call. Watch radar trends and Ralph not sleeping for72hourz!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: So you do feel that the NAM is too low. We can definitely agree then. Likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: That's what the ICON says as well. Instead of the stall near OC MD it is justnEast of Cape May. The NAM isn't alone here. The RGEM is more the outlier than anything else tbh That’s not the issue. Its issue is qpf placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Likely NAM too low and RGEM WAY TO HIGH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Ralph, rgem outlier? It has the axis in the same spot as the eps/euro doesn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 In any event, the CMC is going to follow the rgem and should be just as crazy if not moreso. Brace yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 People and diamond hands. Ride had or die.. 10-20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 RGEM went NE with a less amplified trough. NAM came back west with a more amplified trough/better PVA orientation. I also think the NAM's precip expansion is perhaps a bit wonky. But regardless, maybe we're heading towards a middle ground consensus? Either way, the only trend I can see happening from here in is NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: In any event, the CMC is going to follow the rgem and should be just as crazy if not moreso. Brace yourselves. I can see the axis go from Lehigh valley up towards NNj kind of like icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 As I have been saying for two days now....I like where we all sit in SEPA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Newman said: RGEM went NE with a less amplified trough. NAM came back west with a more amplified trough/better PVA orientation. I also think the NAM's precip expansion is perhaps a bit wonky. But regardless, maybe we're heading towards a middle ground consensus? Either way, the only trend I can see happening from here in is NE. Diamonds and strong hands. Paper hands fold to nam. Ride hard rgem &! Don’t fold amc stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Animal said: Diamonds and strong hands. Paper hands fold to nam. Ride hard rgem &! Don’t fold amc stock. Lay off Wallstreetbets my man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just loop the past 3 runs of both the NAM and RGEM at 500mb. I'm not posting the GIF's but: 1.) The RGEM is becoming LESS amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough. 2.) The NAM is becoming MORE amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough. Middle ground consensus? It was clear the RGEM shifted NE. It was also clear the NAM came back west (and maybe could have even more). Jackpot is gonna be east of where the RGEM has it, west of where the NAM has it. Middle ground for everyone. Everyone wins. Goodnight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Icon targets Quakertown with 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 No point arguing that exact location the coastal sets up it won't be known until Monday am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeS127 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Icon and Nam are the only models that seem to be having trouble placing the Slp. All of the other guidance places it closer to the coast and include some sort of stall south of Jersey IIRC. Weenie mode activated but if the shoe was on the other foot And the two outliers were showing increased precip, better location etc. I would still be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gfs looks a lot better for the city, but I probably sell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Icon targets Quakertown with 25" It's probably wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32 minutes ago, Newman said: At least it's fun to look at Man, I’m going to be pissed if Allentown sets the record for eastern PA and I get fringed with 47 inches! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: It's probably wrong... Yep correct the reggie says much more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 GFS just sits there off the coast of DE for a long time. Should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gfs jacks Philly and east heh, had much stronger fronto precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Imo we aren't going to know where the ccb sets up until game time. We know it will fall in a 100 mile radius across se pa and NJ though. I'll take those chances. Most important was no other model looks like the nam. Still long duration snowfall on tap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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