JSharp Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, anything can still happen. Nobody is in the clear yet and inevitably somebody is going to get screwed. Hoping for the best for this sub, braced for the worst. Miller Bs always screw someone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The SREFS are Part of the NAM family so that isn’t all that surprising NAM rolling out now... should we brace ourselves??? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, bpjones595 said: NAM rolling out now... should we brace ourselves??? . Of course! LOL. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Newman said: FWIW, 21z SREFS are not that impressive across the area (with regards to other guidance), they're favoring northeastern areas like NYC and SNE. KPHL mean of ~6.5". KRDG ~ 8.5". KABE ~ 9.0" Too early to use them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jrodd321 said: Justin! Dude it’s been too long. Yeah man I bought my first house this past March! I’m up in Gilbertsville now in upper Montgo so I’m hoping to finally reap the benefits of being well NW of the city now! Hope you’ve been well too dude!! Hey J Rodden, It's Jonathan Sharp. Haven't communicated in awhile. Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Newman said: Me too, I would love to see an entire SE PA jackpot and spread the love to all in this sub. But I have an uneasy feeling about this one still. Maybe it's PTSD from the past, maybe it's a legit concern I think all the super crazy totals from the last 24 hrs has many assuming this is the one. Thats where the letdown can often happen. I know I will be disappointed if I end up with the SREF 6.5" but at the end of the day, if this were progged to be a 2-4" event that would be a major win...in a Niña. Perhaps that's the way this needs to be viewed....as a nuisance storm and reap the rewards of anything more than minor totals. Meh, easier said than done after having 14-22" totals dangled in front of you all day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, bpjones595 said: NAM rolling out now... should we brace ourselves??? . I'm braced and fully expect the NAM to botch the handoff (capture) and shoot the surface low off to the N and E quickly yielding a minor/moderate event for most. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think all the super crazy totals from the last 24 hrs has many assuming this is the one. Thats where the letdown can often happen. I know I will be disappointed if I end up with the SREF 6.5" but at the end of the day, if this were progged to be a 2-4" event that would be a major win...in a Niña. Perhaps that's the way this needs to be viewed....as a nuisance storm and reap the rewards of anything more than minor totals. Meh, easier said than done after having 14-22" totals dangled in front of you all day. 6.5” only will NOT happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Why confused , Ralph. Why on earth would you follow srefs when every other models states 12+. RELAX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Someone bump this if i meltdown in the next 3 days lol... But if I get over 6 inches, I'll still be happy. That would still be a good storm, nothing memorable but after the awfulness of last year, 2 separate 6" events before February in a mod-strong nina is pretty good... With that said, let's make this a historical one because why not? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, JSharp said: Miller Bs always screw someone. To the yang of this, they are also often historical for someone as well. Let's stop talking about potential screwing, only good vibes here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Should be snowing for most with the WAA induced precip by 2-4pm tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Why confused , Ralph. Why on earth would you follow srefs when every other models states 12+. RELAX Not confused at all....was more in shock that you would taunt the snow gods with such a definitive and concrete statement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Not confused at all....was more in shock that you would taunt the snow gods with such a definitive and concrete statement. That’s fair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, hazwoper said: 6.5” only will NOT happen 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Related to the SREF, the 00Z HRRR is really disappointing too. Ditto--NEPA to NNJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Related to the SREF, the 00Z HRRR is really disappointing too. Ditto--NEPA to NNJ. Has me at 14” and still snowing 7pm Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Related to the SREF, the 00Z HRRR is really disappointing too. Ditto--NEPA to NNJ. 12k NAM is rather mundane all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The HRRR is useless inside 18 hours, who's bright ****ing idea was it to extend it out to 48... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Why are models suddenly nixing the tuck, capture, and stall idea? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NAM came back west with the low, still absolutely sucks for EPA despite a sharper 500mb trough and PVA better angled into the region. Improvement I guess? Next... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12k NAM is rather mundane all things considered As psuhoffman noted in MA forum, NAM is chasing the convection with the low. It’s wrong. We’ve seen this movie before 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Newman said: NAM came back west with the low, still absolutely sucks for EPA despite a sharper 500mb trough and PVA better angled into the region. Improvement I guess? Next... Sounds colder and may be beginning to get an idea. Won’t worry if the rest of 0z is still super. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why are models suddenly nixing the tuck, capture, and stall idea? Models meaning the HRRR, the srefs, and the nam? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Well the Nam trend is troubling that's all I will say its been consistent but it's so different than the other models I will wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Very curious to see how the RGEM portrays this system at 0z. It’s been quite an outlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: As psuhoffman noted in MA forum, NAM is chasing the convection with the low. It’s wrong. We’ve seen this movie before Exactly. The low is located south of Islip on the Oz. Almost all other guidance has it tucked near the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: As psuhoffman noted in MA forum, NAM is chasing the convection with the low. It’s wrong. We’ve seen this movie before Clear trend here at 500mb compared to 18z. Look at the sharper trough and better oriented PVA into the region. A.k.a "this should've came even further west". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: Well the Nam trend is troubling that's all I will say its been consistent but it's so different than the other models I will wait and see. Go on tropical tidbits and hit the previous run button the last 4 or so runs. Consistent is the last thing it's been... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Just now, Snowcane21 said: Exactly. The low is located south of Islip on the Oz. Almost all other guidance has it tucked near the Delmarva. But we've seen this before where the convection carves out a weakness in the baroclinicity and the slp subsequently follows and everyone acts surprised. Miller B....Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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