Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Snowing by 12pm Sunday AND STILL GOING BY TUESDAY EVENING Insane long duration, 48+ hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Bullseyes Monmouth.... must be right...has to be right. With cold rain evidently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 CMC is a shellacking! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is a shellacking! And yet its disjointed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS ticked better to the ECM. New GFS got lost. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: And yet its disjointed lol Deformation band won't be disjointed. Most of the region sits underneath for 18+ hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: GFS ticked better to the ECM. New GFS got lost. The euro is overdone imho and too far S. It is being hugged because it is extreme but ask yourself honestly....when was the last time the most extreme solution panned out, euro or not. That isn't a bet that I would want to take. Using the euro as a high end piece of guidance but following along with the more 'tame' group of modeling seems the way to go here until the euro gets unanimous solid support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The euro is overdone imho and too far S. It is being hugged because it is extreme but ask yourself honestly....when was the last time the most extreme solution panned out, euro or not. That isn't a bet that I would want to take. Using the euro as a high end piece of guidance but following along with the more 'tame' group of modeling seems the way to go here until the euro gets unanimous solid support. The area oh heavy snow on the ECM will migrate NE. I like the location of the arctic high in Canada and our position. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Gfs 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: The area oh heavy snow on the ECM will migrate NE. I like the location of the arctic high in Canada and our position. If you go back and look at the past few runs, the block is relaxing its grip (trend) more and the overall lw is adjusting N. Diff is the vort is the same lat essentially....for now. That will tick N later on in a couple days. The nao ridge is still there just enough to not pull the trof too far n and not strong enough to shit the bed over the OV. Buckle up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs Thanks! Do you think there would be such a difference between the city and suburbs? Isn’t the setup better than with the December storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs Meh, snow hole here. Toss it . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Gulf feed. Very impressive! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Thanks! Do you think there would be such a difference between the city and suburbs? Isn’t the setup better than with the December storm? The op models are disjointed right now. Go with the ensembles right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 March 1958 being thrown around. The famous storm that dropped 50" out here in Berks/Lancaster.... Regardless, these Miller B/C events all follow a common theme. I'm not saying we're getting 50" lol, but if we can clean up the overall h500 I think we're in an ideal spot to catch this one. Long time away still, Sunday it comes in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The op models are disjointed right now. Go with the ensembles right now. In that case, the GEFS is loving us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 If my name isn't Pottstown Potts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Tom Brady's team D just got a safety to make it 24-9 and are getting the ball back with 10 mins to go in the third (see inside joke from earlier today). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Any worry about warm air surging in from the SE ocean water temps about 60 miles out pretty toasty. I mean the storm is sitting there with an easterly component and the high up north is losing its grip as the block breaks down. If I am Delaware River east and southeast this screams warm air off the Atlantic with a changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GEFS have a strong signal/cluster of lows that stall just E of the DelMarVa and essentially stall/crawl to just off the S NJ coast to the benchmark. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: Any worry about warm air surging in from the SE ocean water temps about 60 miles out pretty toasty. I mean the storm is sitting there with an easterly component and the high up north is losing its grip as the block breaks down. If I am Delaware River east and southeast this screams warm air off the Atlantic with a changeover. That's a fairly classic look tbh and mixing in the city during these events for a period is very common. This is a little different tho as the ull is closed and moves right over us while capturing the slp. Lots of dynamics at play. That's something tbd later. But yes, having some mixing work in is common. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Cmc 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: That's a fairly classic look tbh and mixing in the city during these events for a period is very common. This is a little different tho as the ull is closed and moves right over us while capturing the slp. Lots of dynamics at play. That's something tbd later. But yes, having some mixing work in is common. Yep agreed mainly sleet probably and graupel. Wonder if there would be convective bursts you can tell I can’t wait for the high resolution dynamical models. I’m holding my expectations for now in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc Hmmm, H5 implied a better hit. Thats why I dislike snow maps at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS have a strong signal/cluster of lows that stall just E of the DelMarVa and essentially stall/crawl to just off the S NJ coast to the benchmark. Yes we could still get a decent snow with that, but I would like to see some consolidation. Otherwise solutions could be quite divergent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just got this from family "Cecily says its 400 miles off the coast of California and we will know better by Sunday if we can get some snow" lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 For the scared its too north folks the Ukie fringes us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: For the scared its too north folks the Ukie fringes us The crazy uncle has been hitting the moonshine again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch. My prediction for the euro is 6-12" area wide for our subform. Im going to bed see you all at 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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