Snowman1986 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Will winds be a legit factor with this storm? Do we have a chance at a "blizzard" here in central Bucks? I know the "B" word gets missed used by many people. Winter storms that I have considered a blizzard for the area would be 1993, 1996, 2003 and 2016. 1996 and 2016 being pretty similar storms in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Will winds be a legit factor with this storm? Do we have a chance at a "blizzard" here in central Bucks? I know the "B" word gets missed used by many people. Winter storms that I have considered a blizzard for the area would be 1993, 1996, 2003 and 2016. 1996 and 2016 being pretty similar storms in my memory.Not sure if we can get those winds to the surface this far west. But under that CCB it could be near blizzard conditions.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Lifted this from the MA forum, just enough to nail Bucks County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 No more cutter next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VRNAQLR Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I'm going to go with the RDPS as the signal for this storm, based on nothing but my shear optimism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 EPS maintains the OP look rock solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I think RDPS stands for Rapid Deployment of Pseudo Snow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: EPS maintains the OP look rock solid Partially joking but why wouldn't it at this close range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, wkd said: Partially joking but why wouldn't it at this close range? Even though it's short term the ensembles can still be used to detect last hour trends north/south for example the big move north in the December storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 And there's the classic Miller B shift NE on the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Massive shift east on NAM. Dryslots Philly area most of the day Monday and not much back end snow works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Newman said: And there's the classic Miller B shift NE on the NAM Ruh Roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3k NAM isn't as bad as the 12k. Hoping it was just one of those wacky off hour NAM runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If the 18z nam outperforms the 12z euro inside 48 hours to that degree, what's the point of tracking anything? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Imo I think the nam may have picked up on a last minute trend, and we may see the other models follow suite. Huge nw trend like the December storm into central pa didn't really make a ton of sense with a miller B. I did think it'd come NE a bit come game time but not nearly to that level. I mean it's just so far outside of all other guidance, you really have to toss for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mt holly has hoisted initial warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Winter Storm Warning just issued here for 11-15" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 I know this storm has to reform off the coast...But a large area of low pressure heading this way from the Midwest. Gives me chills. https://www.weather.gov/oun/sfcmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mt hollys new map. They seem to think the ccb sets up a bit further ne than guidance as well..doesn't seem they're sold on central pa being the jackpot like on some models. Overall I agree with their map pretty much 100%, mine would look very similar but I think I would of put a stripe of 16-24 in upper bucks/montco through central and nw jersey because whoever gets hit by the pivot is seeing 2 ft imo. That is subject to change though so maybe they'll fine tune as we get closer. As always great work mt holly, this is going to be a tricky one! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This post from the MA forum really says it all: “Use the NAMs the way they’re supposed to be used. And nailing the precise physics of coastal transfer, cyclogenesis, and cold conveyor belt development is not it” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This will be the storm where folks waiting for the 2nd to form during the dry slot will say radar looks like crap etc. - storm fail etc. That is why for snow weenies Miller B's are painful.....and unpredictable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Weather World says meh 6-10" in SEPA in the forecast out 2 hours ago. A bit conservative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Winter Storm Warning just issued here for 11-15" of snow. Same here and honestly, I think the high end listed could end up really being a possible low end when all is said and done as we could hit 20" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mount Holy is going all out at 12-18" that is interesting also. I like 10-15" myself as a personal guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 RGEM is again a crusher for NW folk. These last minute Miller B swings are gonna drive some (me) crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Expectations set at lucky 13" now I sit back and let the Miller B fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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