Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This setup is also slightly abnormal. Precip will explode over the region instead of developing farther south and expanding north. You can see that with the dry slot Over DE. If it forms too far N like NAM city is fooked for 12”, would be more like 4-8 From waa snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro crushes Central NJ and Eastern PA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 I’d be lying if I said the NAM didn’t have me a little on edge. It’s been the first to sniff out big northwest trends in the past. Of course there’s a lot of times when it’s off its rocker too, but you just can’t completely toss it right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I’d be lying if I said the NAM didn’t have me a little on edge. It’s been the first to sniff out big northwest trends in the past. Of course there’s a lot of times when it’s off its rocker too, but you just can’t completely toss it right now. Yeah... I feel better being out in Lancaster County but would like that trend to slow down or even reverse a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I’d be lying if I said the NAM didn’t have me a little on edge. It’s been the first to sniff out big northwest trends in the past. Of course there’s a lot of times when it’s off its rocker too, but you just can’t completely toss it right now. It isnt alone. More concerning are many eps members hitting on a line from Binghamton NY over to Bos. That is quite a jump N. If this capture doesn't happen at just the right time we are talking 4-7" in parts of SE PA vs 1-3' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001. I don't think this will be a March 01 redux, but a repeat of December 2020 possibly. When the heaviest totals were over us for awhile then they shifted all north but we still all got 6-10" in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001. Oh yea that storm we are getting 20”+ reality a few sprinkles sun poking out later in the day total accumulation zero!! That was a Miller B set up. Didn’t a meteorologist lose his job on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 In my view 6z eps has less expansive precip than 00z up near pa N border and just increased inside the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Oh yea that storm we are getting 20”+ reality a few sprinkles sun poking out later in the day total accumulation zero!! That was a Miller B set up. Didn’t a meteorologist lose his job on that one? Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Newman said: Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29 The first weenie ledge of my life. Was the first year I learned how to look at the models (AVN, EURO once a day, NGM, ETA etc) euro and eta backed off and sent it north but AVN kept hanging on. Since AVN out performed the ETA in the dec 30 2000 storm and the earlier December southeast event Mets hanged onto it to their doom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Newman said: Yes John Bolaris at Fox 29 Bingo!! It was more of a trivia question but that whole thing was a complete disaster of a storm even Paul Kocin got it wrong. I too am on edge due to that storm. Like snow is just going to appear on top of us feeling. Miller Bs are notorious for pulling the rug out DC Baltimore to PHL then your looking NE Pa and North Jersey to down east Maine getting pummeled while we have mood flakes and an East wind that goes NE the N then WNW in time. I am bracing for the disaster hoping for the best so yes I’m PSTD from 2001 and also knowing we are sitting at 7” total at the airport last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: Bingo!! It was more of a trivia question but that whole thing was a complete disaster of a storm even Paul Kocin got it wrong. I too am on edge due to that storm. Like snow is just going to appear on top of us feeling. Miller Bs are notorious for pulling the rug out DC Baltimore to PHL then your looking NE Pa and North Jersey to down east Maine getting pummeled while we have mood flakes and an East wind that goes NE the N then WNW in time. I am bracing for the disaster hoping for the best so yes I’m PSTD from 2001 and also knowing we are sitting at 7” total at the airport last two years. Well, this is a much different setup than that storm AND we are in prime climo with better modeling, so there's that. Still think the truth lies in between the 0z GFS and 6z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772 Yeah it would be nice, however check out DTs latest video. He showed the snow it had forecasted for southeast earlier this week. In less than 3 runs it completely shifted from like nothing to a hit 1-2 days out. That model has burned me big time when chasing storms. I told myself after I didn’t go up to bgm that I will never not trust the EPS near game time, ever again. that being said, please come south NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Macungie in the jackpot zone on the euro --about time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772 While the NAM is still living in infamy from 2016. It’s skill scores are atrocious and there’s a reason it’s being discontinued. When you see a model make that large of a shift in the course of 6 hours one should be very Leary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, this is a much different setup than that storm AND we are in prime climo with better modeling, so there's that. Still think the truth lies in between the 0z GFS and 6z Euro. Exactly this. I hate chasing this type of storm in March (or even April) as we have seen many, many times over the past decade. Climo is with us for a change. No talk of "well, you see, the sun angle..." or "gotta hope and pray the surface temps come down with the first flakes" here. This is looking to be a classic event. Cheers all around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Good vibes this run. Cmon NAM just buck the damn trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Good vibes this run. Cmon NAM just buck the damn trend Lower heights so far through hour 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS blend coming up with a "plowable" event for NW Chester County PA to the tune of 24" to 34"....sounds reasonable right? Snow starts 7am Sunday and ends at 1am Wednesday - This might be the highest snow forecast WXSIM has ever produced....verification likelihood....nada! Sunday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill around 22. Wind east around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 17. Wind east around 9 mph, gusting to 15 mph, in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Windy. High 33. Wind chill around 20. Wind east around 16 mph, gusting to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 3 inches. Snow accumulation 15 to 20 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Breezy. Low 29. Wind chill as low as 20. Wind northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A chance of snow in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Breezy. High 31. Wind chill around 20. Wind north around 12 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 NAM looks to be coming in further NW? . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, bpjones595 said: NAM looks to be coming in further NW? . From 0z? Maybe. From 6z? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It isnt alone. More concerning are many eps members hitting on a line from Binghamton NY over to Bos. That is quite a jump N. If this capture doesn't happen at just the right time we are talking 4-7" in parts of SE PA vs 1-3' We are certainly at the highest snow guidance at this point...there is nowhere to go but lower from here....I suspect many will be disappointed as I think reality is less than 10" for most... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: We are certainly at the highest snow guidance at this point...there is nowhere to go but lower from here....I suspect many will be disappointed as I think reality is less than 10" for most... You thinking this goes further north or back south Paul for most to get less than 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, bpjones595 said: NAM looks to be coming in further NW? . No 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Huge win on NAM. Trend halted! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: You thinking this goes further north or back south Paul for most to get less than 10"? More of an ENE track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Huge win on NAM. Trend halted! yeah this is VERY good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Huge win on NAM. Trend halted! It looks warmer than other guidance but definitely not north of 6z. Maybe a little south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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