Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: Giggity-giggity Oddly enough Ch10 going w/the same 6-9". First off 6-9" is not a normal range and Ch6 and Ch10 usually don't have the same exact amounts..kinda strange. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: Oddly enough Ch10 going w/the same 6-9". First off 6-9" is not a normal range and Ch6 and Ch10 usually don't have the same exact amounts..kinda strange. Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Anxiously awaiting Bruce’s call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Anxiously awaiting Bruce’s call. Been listening to WIP, sad to say no Bruce. Guess I'll have to go w/his 20"/blizzard until further notice... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Eskin sticking with 4" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said: Literally 2.0 qpf or 2 feet of snow .... right on me in Ardmore, PA. Keep it. Forever and ever. hit up tired hands tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Been listening to WIP, sad to say no Bruce. Guess I'll have to go w/his 20"/blizzard until further notice... If he’s such a weenie, he must know about this place. Wonder if it’s one of us? I bet it’s Greenskeeper!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Eskin sticking with 4" ? His pred was/is 6"....he'll nail it and gloat. King! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: If he’s such a weenie, he must know about this place. Wonder if it’s one of us? I bet it’s Greenskeeper!! We'll never know. Greenskeeper is not allowed to speak/type. His job is to sling weenies as needed....he'll be busy for the next several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Oddly enough Ch10 going w/the same 6-9". First off 6-9" is not a normal range and Ch6 and Ch10 usually don't have the same exact amounts..kinda strange. 9" is "less" scarry then 10" for the snowflake crowd... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 For my northeast Philly first call, (i always do%s until game day) 40% 8-12 40% 4-8 10% <4 10% >12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 See latest GFS below...I am not buying what it is selling. I really think this is a PHL NE special with a sharp cutoff across N and W areas. Plowable snow for many sure....over 19" at MDT - no and over a foot in NW Chesco.....no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 42 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Oddly enough Ch10 going w/the same 6-9". First off 6-9" is not a normal range and Ch6 and Ch10 usually don't have the same exact amounts..kinda strange. CBS3: 5+" Philly and local burbs FOX29: 6-10" Philly and local burbs When I say local burbs it's only up to mid Mont/Bucks county. (sharp cut off) Further out burbs 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Euro will be better this run Pna ridge looks better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 North 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Still snowing 30 hours of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Epic euro run. It’s still snowing there at the end of the run. I’m all in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Do we welcome the doctor back after the previous runs of malpractice? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 18z WXSIM with a NAM/GFS blend has snow starting by 1pm Sunday with snow totals of 20" to 29"...um no....not happening! Sunday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill ranging from 22 to 26. Wind southeast near calm in the morning, becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 28. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind east around 11 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Windy. High 33. Wind chill around 20. Wind east around 17 mph, gusting to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Monday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Breezy. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 21. Wind north-northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Oh man get your buns ready for 00z... I have a feeling it could be one of those epic nights after that 18z euro. Keep the totals increasing, I'm pushing my chips in as well. All in. This is going to be an epic one. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Central Jersey...bam! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Mt holly afd is a good read: A long duration and complex winter storm is forecast to impact the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday through Tuesday. This storm is likely to bring significant accumulating snowfall to portions of the forecast area. Details follow... A mid-level trough located across the West Coast will eject quickly eastward across the Plains on Saturday and stall out across the Ohio Valley early Sunday. At the surface, low pressure will pass across the Ohio Valley then weaken Sunday as a new coastal low forms just south and east of Delaware Bay early Monday. This is a classic Miller-B low pressure evolution which will ultimately become a nor`easter. As the surface low develops and quickly deepens offshore, a strong pressure gradient will yield strong northeasterly winds. A modest arctic high will be located across eastern Canada through the period. As far as precipitation, p-types, and timing, forcing for ascent (overrunning) will arrive Sunday morning spreading from southwest to northeast throughout the day. A rather cold and dry airmass will be in place at the onset (temps in the 10s/20s with dewpoints in the 0s/10s), so precipitation will probably take some time to begin reaching the surface on Monday. Precip should start out as snow almost everywhere, except for perhaps the immediate coast which could see a mix and rain and snow. A surge of warm air advection associated with the initial surface low should result in a period of mixing of precipitation and change over to rain Sunday night into early Monday morning across much of Delmarva and southern/coastal New Jersey. By early Monday, the surface low intensifying and pivoting off the coast will result in increasing winds and increasing cold air advection as the mean flow turns northeasterly. Impressive wind fields (925 mb winds 40-50+ kts along and south/east of I-95) will develop as a result of the gradient leading to strong winds at the surface. The strongest winds will be along and near the coasts with gusts possibly in excess of 50 mph. Farther inland, wind gusts of 35- 45 mph will likely be common along and south/east of I-95. As a result, a change over to all snow is expected on the back side of the storm, even all the way to the coast, as the system begins departing into Monday night. Light snow may linger into Tuesday morning depending on how progressive the storm is. The exact placement and strength of the low will dictate exactly where the heaviest snow falls. The complexity of this system lies in details of the system transitioning from an overruning precip regime to a mesoscale banding (f-gen) and wrap-around precip regime. The latest 12Z guidance suite has trended the system a bit southward and thus colder, which suggests the greatest potential for f-gen banding across portions of interior southern New Jersey and Delmarva. This axis can certainly change over the coming forecast updates. Snow totals in the banding could potentially exceed the broadbrush ~6-8" storm total snowfall that is currently forecast across much of the urban corridor and south/east away from the coast. We`ve gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the areas of highest confidence of potential impacts from this storm. It is important to note that this will be a abnormally long duration storm (36+ hours of snow and wintry precipitation), and that the highest snow totals and highest snowfall rates will likely not be realized until later on in the event late Monday. The storm total snowfall amounts we are forecasting encompass the entire event as a whole. Some light accumulations may occur through early Tuesday, especially east of Philadelphia as the storm departs. Otherwise, conditions will be generally improving by late Tuesday and winds will diminish. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Oh man get your buns ready for 00z... I have a feeling it could be one of those epic nights after that 18z euro. Keep the totals increasing, I'm pushing my chips in as well. All in. This is going to be an epic one. I shouldn't say it.....but...48hrs still left to go north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: I shouldn't say it.....but...48hrs still left to go north This is about the time frame the December event started taking those insane totals N&W should be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: I shouldn't say it.....but...48hrs still left to go north With the blocking and confluence in place, I dont see a drastic shift like December. I think we see ticks here on out, not shifts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: With the blocking and confluence in place, I dont see a drastic shift like December. I think we see ticks here on out, not shifts. it shouldn't be this hard to get frozen water from clouds 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1) Yes Mt Holly write up was good. 2) I'm refraining from posting right now, or getting excited, as I've learned the very hard way (as have all of you) that we've been burned SO MANY TIMES on winter setups. There's an excellent article the inquirer put out earlier basically making the point by talking about the improvements in modeling coupled with myriad high profile busts over the last dozen years. Moral of the story is, Philly weather is hard to predict wrt snow. Complex almost always. You've got an elevation change, variable coastal effects (sometimes intrastorm), etc. I'll try to make a call tomorrow night just to be part of the bandwagon bc yolo. The things I DO like about this setup are its long duration, the favorable teleconnection pattern, the existing cold air "cold air is the bully"--> meteo refrain referring to cold air being more dense, thus if you want to bet on something, bet that cold air sticks around longer bc it takes longer to dislodge. The long duration aspect means that if one element underwhelms, say, overrunning, or fgen, there's 2 other components that can make up for it. Much better than a quick hitter that is progged with 2" rates. If you miss an hour, or 2, of those 2" rates bc the low tracks differently than you expect or the column takes longer to saturate than you think, you're sol. With a storm like this, it's kinda lumbering and that makes it harder to bust. The PG is impressive--will be interesting to see what type of warning (*ahem*, if a warning) is hoisted. That all said, this is Philly, my above axiom stands vis a vis the models' ability to prognosticate a major event that doesn't happen. A lot of historical data points to this being a good setup. Air travel is still down though (# flights): weather data from aircraft are fed into the models as part of their initialization. I also tangentially think that climate change may be (possibly) hurting model performance. Your basic assumptions have to change a bit when the energy budget shifts (e.g. less energy coming through atmos can get back out to space). I'm sure modelers are factoring that in, but, cursorily, I have noticed a trend for models to be more finicky the last several years than in the past, and I do wonder if climatic effects are partially responsible. Anyway, looks promising, but I'm not gonna start letting model variability and run to run updates consume my life till tmrw night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 hours ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: What do you all think for South-Central NJ (near Mount Holly)? My sister is supposed to get vaccinated at the South NJ mega site (in Glouchester county) Monday AM, and she is worried about snow impacting her trip to that site. Maybe check with the site over the weekend - if things evolve "properly", they might close it down for the day Monday, and save her the decision/angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 DT not giving up w/the 12"+ around here... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrweissm Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 hours ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said: What do you all think for South-Central NJ (near Mount Holly)? My sister is supposed to get vaccinated at the South NJ mega site (in Glouchester county) Monday AM, and she is worried about snow impacting her trip to that site. Many of the SJ vaccine sites have already cancelled for Monday. Check the specific sites website for details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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