Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm

[Mikeymac5306]

Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. 

[The Iceman]

whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance? 

[SP]

If this holds it could be a Southern Monmouth Special........

[Rtd208]

Winter Storm Watch issued here for accumulations of over 7"

[MacChump]

Just now, The Iceman said:

whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance? 

lol...feel OK about this one down here...

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I agree to disagree. There is still a fair amount of spread and mt holly has done that in the past and been burned. Better to start conservative and increase as we get closer. Remember watches haven't even been hoisted yet, we are still a good 60 hours out from first snow. Things can change. Plus that map is from this morning when things were even more uncertain. I bet it increases in the afternoon update. Mt holly is one of the best, I trust them. 

For north and west yes there is huge spread. For CNJ pretty much every model shows a foot plus. If people are expecting 4” and get over a foot that is a huge difference on impact that people need to prepare for. 

[Birds~69]

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Winter Storm Watch issued here for accumulations of over 7"

Same for SE PA....

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. 

Do you think the coast could see a blizzard warning? The watch says winds to 50mph. I imagine that might meet blizzard conditions. I haven’t been looking at the winds on the models myself but that’s something to keep an eye on

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. 

From the WSW posted for SE PA:

Winds could gust as high as 50 mph creating
significant blowing and drifting of snow.

[hazwoper]

yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe.  Possible, but not likely

[Birds~69]

Just now, hazwoper said:

yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe.  Possible, but not likely

It could happen???

The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours.

 

 

[zenmsav6810]

1 minute ago, hazwoper said:

yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe.  Possible, but not likely

To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that.  

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that.  

Check my post above you...that's from NWS

[hazwoper]

5 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that.  

That is "Heavy Snow warning" criteria. Blizzard is sustained winds of 35 mph for 3 hours or more with heavy snow

 

A blizzard warning (SAME code: BZW) is an advisory issued by the National Weather Service of the United States which means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph / 15 m/s or greater with heavy snow is forecast for a period of 3 hours or more.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx#:~:text=A Winter Storm Warning is,sleet is expected to occur.&text=A Blizzard Warning is issued,for at least three hours.

[LVblizzard]

NAM looks like it’s a tick south.

[Snowcane21]

11 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that.  

There is No Precipitation or temperature requirement to meet Blizzard Criteria.  Winds/visibility are the only two criteria 

[hazwoper]

looking at the 18Z NAM, as I have said all day, I like where I site here in extreme SEPA

EDIT with the above being said, I think the NAM made some errors here and the precip shield will push back NW

[MacChump]

2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

looking at the 18Z NAM, as I have said all day, I like where I site here in extreme SEPA

EDIT with the above being said, I think the NAM made some errors here and the precip shield will push back NW

where are you, your location says wrightstown?

[Animal]

29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Same for SE PA....

Just wait for the nw ticks..

[hazwoper]

5 minutes ago, MacChump said:

where are you, your location says wrightstown?

yep, Wrightstown, PA.  Just North of Newtown.  Bucks County

[penndotguy]

We have an awesome HWO for 5", works for me says 1-3 by Monday morning 

[Lady Di]

4 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

yep, Wrightstown, PA.  Just North of Newtown.  Bucks County

I'm sort of like extreme SE PA -where is that?   Bucks is north to me, not south, but yes definitely east of me.  Will see what differences we get, if any.  Beautiful country up there.

I'm almost in the Mid Atlantic forum-LOL

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

I'm sort of like extreme SE PA -where is that?   Bucks is north to me, not south, but yes definitely east of me.  Will see what differences we get, if any.  Beautiful country up there.

I'm almost in the Mid Atlantic forum-LOL

yes, you most certainly are extreme SEPA

Basically the lower portion of the 5 counties is what I consider extreme SEPA

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

If you're thinking 4-6" is a good total and the duration is 36+hrs....that's like light snow/heavy flurries? Or are you thinking sleet...breaks in action etc?

Breaks and light/moderate ... for now. Has room for upside. Learned from the past better to start conservative and tick up than go balls deep at 12" to start and have to keep shaving.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3k NAM is better...much weaker/flatter with that vort.over New England around 54 I mentioned earlier....looks tucked into VA Beach. SLP depiction at 60 is actually inland. Fairly far S too 

[MJO812]

Icon is more tucked and north

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Icon is more tucked and north

That is very misleading S of the mason-dixon. There is ALOT of mixing this run. DC is actually mostly sleet per soundings.

[MJO812]

Steve D going 10-20+ for philly

[Ralph Wiggum]

Didn't see the RGEM posted but that ticked NW too. Still snowing at end of run. Sharp cutoff tho to the left of that deform band. Someone is going to get majorly shafted

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16".

The map pushing 24 hours old, I wouldn't be too hard on their first call.