Violentweatherfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is west of the op run. Cmc is also west. I'm talking about the term transfer and not specifically this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: The Euro run definitely eased some of my anxiety. It doesn’t look like a total whiff is a realistic solution here in the Lehigh Valley. Now the question is, is this a run of the mill 3-6” storm or will it be much more significant? Next few runs are important, do we continue to tick back NW or do the models settle in from here on a solution? My guess is that the nw ticks aren't finished and the sweet spot ultimately ends up nw of 95 meaning you guys could end up more in the 4-8/6-12" range. We'll see though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I'm talking about the term transfer and not specifically this storm. Gotcha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Seriously...if you live in an area where you average like 10" a year, a 4-6" storm is a very solid event for your area. Hell that's a good storm in my books up here... This is their once a year event. Take whatever they can....they haven't had one in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 4th and goal for Brady on the 4. FG unit is coming onto the field. Should be an easy chip shot to take the lead here with under 5 to play. Time out taken by his opponent to try and ice the kicker. Not sure I agree with the time management call but we'll see. And here we go....for the lead (or the loss in our case)....here's the snap....the kick is up...AND IT'S BLOCKED!!!! THE FG IS BLOCKED!!! Recovered and downed by the defense on their own 17. Wow, what a turn of events here to stop the drive. Unbelievable. This one is going to come down to the wire. We get the ball back with 4:20 to play tied at 24 and all Brady can do is sit on the sideline and hope his D holds and he gets a late shot at a drive. How fitting would this be for a rare upset for the DC/Philly teams. Wow! Ralph liked we talked about this morning it looks like the Euro is beginning to correct itself from its southwest bias? However no doubt about it tonight's 0z runs will for sure seal the deal and what the models show tonight Euro included is most likely going to be the final outcome minus the fine details. Oh and then we can start the discussion about banding, gravity waves, and also the all important snow ratios is it 10:1, 12:1, or 15:1? I am thinking in this set up probably looking at 12:1 or 13:1 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: UKMET crushes most of the area. Very sharp cutoff north of the Lehigh Valley though. Allentown sees close to a foot while Jim Thorpe and Hazleton only get an inch or so. Yeah, definitely would suck for us up here in the Southern Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ECM Ensembles are interesting and say anything is still possible. Feast or famine most of them are big hits or weak sauce. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just a heads up but HM on phillywx mentioned in a post last night saying ratios may actually not be good. He said it was too soon to say, but just throwing it out there. Has to do with the Fgen forcing etc I don’t want to copy his post without his permission though since it wasn’t a call just interesting discussion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: ECM Ensembles are interesting and say anything is still possible. Feast or famine most of them are big hits or weak sauce. You got the indies and control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Just a heads up but HM on phillywx mentioned in a post last night saying ratios may actually not be good. He said it was too soon to say, but just throwing it out there. Has to do with the Fgen forcing etc I don’t want to copy his post without his permission though since it wasn’t a call just interesting discussion I was going to post such a point. The coastals typically don't have great ratios. The WAA out front would, but we don't see much of that up here. With the coastal and the winds associated with it I would think 10:1 is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Conservatively I would say this looks like a moderate event (at the least) with 4-6" being likely and the *potential* for around a foot of snow on the higher end all relative to location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: You got the indies and control? No was peeking in the MA thread most got posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like the 12z EC has the Monmouth and Ocean counties jackpot, lock it in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How does that compare to 0z or 6z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How does that compare to 0z or 6z? Further north compared to 6z 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Further north compared to 6z Thanks Ant 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Sref time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, hazwoper said: I was going to post such a point. The coastals typically don't have great ratios. The WAA out front would, but we don't see much of that up here. With the coastal and the winds associated with it I would think 10:1 is likely. I know very little about these things but wouldn't there be slightly better ratios under the ccb? I totally get 10:1 ratios outside of it but I thought you'd see 13-15:-1 under the ccb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: I know very little about these things but wouldn't there be slightly better ratios under the ccb? I totally get 10:1 ratios outside of it but I thought you'd see 13-15:-1 under the ccb? I think it really depends on the winds both at the surface and aloft (among other things) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref time Great spot with the low location. Definitely further nw than the eps imo Get that baby 50 miles nw and it's game on for a lot of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Great spot with the low location. Definitely further nw than the eps imo Get that baby 50 miles nw and it's game on for a lot of us. If you're thinking 4-6" is a good total and the duration is 36+hrs....that's like light snow/heavy flurries? Or are you thinking sleet...breaks in action etc? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This is dated, but i didn't see it posted here. Mt Holly first call. I wonder if we see them tick up a bit in the next update. Thought the map was perfect though, well done Mt Holly crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: If you're thinking 4-6" is a good total and the duration is 36+hrs....that's like light snow/heavy flurries? Or are you thinking sleet...breaks in action etc? I just mean it's too early to know where the heaviest banding is going to set up so 4-6" is a good baseline. If it actually snows 36 hours then yeah I expect way higher totals, foot plus, but it's too early to be expecting those totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This is dated, but i didn't see it posted here. Mt Holly first call. I wonder if we see them tick up a bit in the next update. Thought the map was perfect though, well done Mt Holly crew! I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewtwo Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 You can't go wrong calling 4-6", you're covered for the vast majority of events from a few inches up to almost a foot. In fact put me down for 4-6" for the next storm as well, whenever that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16". Same. I would have done 6-10" as a base then increase as/if needed.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16". name checks out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16". I agree to disagree. There is still a fair amount of spread and mt holly has done that in the past and been burned. Better to start conservative and increase as we get closer. Remember watches haven't even been hoisted yet, we are still a good 60 hours out from first snow. Things can change. Plus that map is from this morning when things were even more uncertain. I bet it increases in the afternoon update. Mt holly is one of the best, I trust them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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