Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Newman said: Not a fan of the RGEM or NAM. Shows the classic EPA Miller B screw zone setting up. Not saying its gonna happen, but much higher possibility now. Very Jan 2000ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 DC and Mid Atl destroyed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Shame 96 was a Miller A because this is ghosts of that storm....heaviest band at 54hr lead thru DC and to the S and E of us then started to come N and the rest is history. Not sure how this Miller B will react. Guessing we don't see that N tick we need but we also aren't in a terrible spot still with 2.5 days to go. Wouldnt take much to adjust to a biggie or even the opposite. Walking a tightrope here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 analogs from CIPS are Jan 2015 and Jan 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Man, just across the Del River gets pummeled, SE PA SECS, smoking cirrus farther N and W on the RGEM. In line with the 6z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM went South...misses the N half of the forum. Guessing the CMC will follow since they run off similar algorithms. What happens after hr84. Looks to me like more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Adjust the RGEM about 30 miles N and W and massive hit. As it stands now, S NJ bullseye based on surface maps. Yet another solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, wkd said: What happens after hr84. Looks to me like more snow. some but not much. storm at that point has occluded and is sinking SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Man, just across the Del River gets pummeled, SE PA SECS, smoking cirrus farther N and W on the RGEM. In line with the 6z EPS. How is I 95 near the pa/de line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Animal said: How is I 95 near the pa/de line Looks like around 10-14" EtA: that doesn't factor in mixing. Snow map closer to 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: some but not much. storm at that point has occluded and is sinking SE. I beg to differ. From hour 81 to 84 I don't see a movement SE, at least on Pivotol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Animal said: How is I 95 near the pa/de line more like 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, wkd said: I beg to differ. From hour 81 to 84 I don't see a movement SE, at least on Pivotol you'd be wrong, sorry. Storm has occluded and is indeed sinking SE. Once occlusion occurs the center is cutoff from moisture, thus further allowing for the dry air from the NW to push in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GFS is nudging S and E. The culprit as I pointed out yesterday on the NAM (which subsequently lost) is a vort swinging SE across parts of.New England around 54 -66 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like a tamer version of Feb 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 we still have some time, but I think we are lookin gat a low end warning event for extreme SEPSA/SNJ at this point. The models have been all over this disjointed aspect of the coastal for some time now. I think 6-8" is a good bet right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: we still have some time, but I think we are lookin gat a low end warning event for extreme SEPSA/SNJ at this point. The models have been all over this disjointed aspect of the coastal for some time now. I think 6-8" is a good bet right now. Seems like a reasonable albeit perhaps slightly conservative call. We take regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Seems like a reasonable albeit perhaps slightly conservative call. We take regardless. Agreed. I think if things change they go up from my call, not down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Cmc looks decent for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Para gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We need the feature over New England I made note of yesterday to weaken or go away, not continue to get stronger. This flattens the boundary pressing or holding confluence South. It also lessens the chances for a clean capture / stall and is the diff between a MECS and a SECS for parts of our region. You can see the trend on the CMC I am posting which is why the NW shield collapses and erodes. This is showing on several pieces of guidance now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: So close for SE PA. BUT....I think trends are what are most important here. See my last post above....isnt much to stop this from pressing the best band of snow even farther S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is nudging S and E. The culprit as I pointed out yesterday on the NAM (which subsequently lost) is a vort swinging SE across parts of.New England around 54 -66 hrs. So Ralph maybe it's not the Euro Bias here... perhaps we are heading for a disaster overall. May it's really windy out there right now there is your confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated. On Water Vapor you can see the Push NE to SW up north of New England in SE Canada that is now being modeled now. Perhaps the models are picking up on the strength and timing of that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 "The" family member told me Accu weather said 4" of snow last night and "they are never wrong" Is this true and why do I waste my time on any of this lol 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Newman said: Not a fan of the RGEM or NAM. Shows the classic EPA Miller B screw zone setting up. Not saying its gonna happen, but much higher possibility now. I hope we can eek out at a couple inches out here, I remember 2 years years ago working in Boyertown and it snowing hard and on my way home as soon as I hit 422 in Exeter it was cloudy then when I hit 222 north it was sunny, I dont need that feeling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated. As I said, I like where EXTREME SEPA sits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Someone in the NYC forum said GFS ensembles are west. Anyway looks good for at least 4-6” but depending on banding and location of transfer, we still could get 12+”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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