MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z RGEM is a tick west from the 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 hours ago, snowwors2 said: ^^^^^Someone PLEASE tell Ralph to stay in bed until at least 12z “runs” Friday‼️ What did I miss? 6Z says the Euro was all just a bad dream. As you were. 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 hours ago, RedSky said: 6 vs 1 the progressive Navy is on board I bet deep thunder went boom too 6z NAVGEM is a crusher!! 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Euro.... Eek. Not much change with the coastal but definitely cut back QPF sharply to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12z euro is going to start to come back....0z tonight latest. Mark my words. It has NO support with how it handles the energy coming on the coast in the short range. I truly think they put something in the algorithm when they 'upgraded' it to remove the old Southwest bias and I've noticed whenever energy rolls into California is has mysteriously weakened it to rush it East. Now my total amateur thought is this actually makes total sense. If you wrote a computer program that had a bias of being too strong in an area and digging subsequent trof too strongly in that area, wouldn't your bandaid be to counteract that code by being weaker out there when energy is detected moving into the region? I dunno, I'm pulling straws here on why the euro is all alone BUT I have in fact noticed this weakening out in the W and SW many times when our systems come in since the upgrade. We've discussed this in other subs and even some red taggers agreed they did something to the algorithm out there to cause vorts to weaken too fast and not amplify which allows for the energy to remain more progressive and not dig in and get stuck out there. Long story short, I'm willing to bet this is what the euro is doing yet again. Besides, we are out of the euro wheelhouse now. The runs 2 days ago with the bomb solution was the euros notoriously best range. We'll see....i.am confident it.comes back even if just with ticks and not big jumps. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12z euro is going to start to come back....0z tonight latest. Mark my words. It has NO support with how it handles the energy coming on the coast in the short range. I truly think they put something in the algorithm when they 'upgraded' it to remove the old Southwest bias and I've noticed whenever energy rolls into California is has mysteriously weakened it to rush it East. Now my total amateur thought is this actually makes total sense. If you wrote a computer program that had a bias of being too strong in an area and digging subsequent trof too strongly in that area, wouldn't your bandaid be to counteract that code by being weaker out there when energy is detected moving into the region? I dunno, I'm pulling straws here on why the euro is all alone BUT I have in fact noticed this weakening out in the W and SW many times when our systems come in since the upgrade. We've discussed this in other subs and even some red taggers agreed they did something to the algorithm out there to cause vorts to weaken too fast and not amplify which allows for the energy to remain more progressive and not dig in and get stuck out there. Long story short, I'm willing to bet this is what the euronis doing yet again. Besides, we are out of the euro wheelhouse now. The runs 2 days ago with the bomb solution was the euros notoriously best range. We'll see....i.am confident it.comes back even if just with ticks and not big jumps. Totally Agree look at my comment from earlier: What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 16 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Totally Agree look at my comment from earlier: What happened to the Euro run last night?? Now in my dealings with the Euro doesn't it have a so called blind spot for storms in the far Southwest of the United States where the Euro either weakens the storm down too much or holds energy back in the southwest? Our storm basically is about to crash into Southern California as we speak just to the west of LA so I am wondering if the Euro run was just a blip and the Euro having one of its bias moments out there just west of California and diving SSE into Southern Cali before rounding the bottom of the trough out there and moving east. Thoughts?? https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/satellite-wv If you look at all other guidance, the Euro dramatically weakens the energy coming out of the Southwest to the point it is almost a flat wave. It makes sense to think that to keep energy rolling thru u need it to be weaker. Probably is something in the algorithm in a particular area or with a particular SD vort [if h5 sw is between lat x longitude y and > 35cv SD +3 then etc etc]. Maybe I'm off base but like I said, red taggers in other subs noted this last year when the euro would suddenly crap the bed with systems and be alone in a solution. Certainly plausible. The euro isn't the King anymore. Could this be why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Feel confident of a 6 plus event! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: If you look at all other guidance, the Euro dramatically weakens the energy coming out of the Southwest to the point it is almost a flat wave. It makes sense to think that to keep energy rolling thru u need it to be weaker. Probably is something in the algorithm in a particular area or with a particular SD vort [if h5 sw is between lat x longitude y and > 35cv SD +3 then etc etc]. Maybe I'm off base but like I said, red taggers in other subs noted this last year when the euro would suddenly crap the bed with systems and be alone in a solution. Certainly plausible. Yep and I would think that this error would affect the entire run coast to coast due to all the physics involved falling apart like a domino effect all the way to the newly formed coastal low being too weak and too far east or southeast. Now the 6z Euro showing what appears to be a dual low structure which is often the case in a blocked system trying to move NE along the United States East Coast. I am very curious to see the Euro at 1:00 today I wonder if it starts correcting itself or continues to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised the Euro continues to struggle while the other models continue on continuing on. I bet the Euro doesn't start picking up the major storm idea again until the storm is passing through the southern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 Remember, the Euro was the southern outlier with the Jan. 2016 storm too. I remember it came close to whiffing Philly for a few runs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 46 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yep and I would think that this error would affect the entire run coast to coast due to all the physics involved falling apart like a domino effect all the way to the newly formed coastal low being too weak and too far east or southeast. Now the 6z Euro showing what appears to be a dual low structure which is often the case in a blocked system trying to move NE along the United States East Coast. I am very curious to see the Euro at 1:00 today I wonder if it starts correcting itself or continues to struggle. I wouldn't be surprised the Euro continues to struggle while the other models continue on continuing on. I bet the Euro doesn't start picking up the major storm idea again until the storm is passing through the southern Rockies. This is exactly my thinking as well might not be until 0z we see the changes. But I bet if all other guidance remains it will begin to trend back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Remember, the Euro was the southern outlier with the Jan. 2016 storm too. I remember it came close to whiffing Philly for a few runs. Yes it did....and even yesterday's storm in the SE it was an even farther southern outlier for a bit with a weaker ull traversing out of the Southwest that never really amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Eps ticked up with amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Weenie handbook Chapter 7 Page 611 Section 2 clause b: When all guidance agrees on a solution except for 1 that appears an outlier, remove outlier from group AND remove the most extreme solution on the other end from the group as well to reduce skew In this case adios Euro and remove the ICON from the other side and the truth likely lies in between remaining modeling solutions. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Weenie handbook Chapter 7 Page 611 Section 2 clause b: When all guidance agrees on a solution except for 1 that appears an outlier, remove outlier from group AND remove the most extreme solution on the other end from the group as well to reduce skew In this case adios Euro and remove the ICON from the other side and the truth likely lies in between remaining modeling solutions. Meanwhile down south, they are performing olympic level mental gymnastics on why the euro is going to be right with suppression while every other model is going to be wrong 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 A few of the 6z snow maps in one spot for those interested - note NAM is only thru 1pm Monday Quote Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.6": Winter 2020/21 - (5) Winter Events so far with total Current Seasonal Snowfall to date at 11.2" : 01/3 - 1.0" /12/2 (0.3") / 12/9 (0.3") / 12/16-17 (9.3") / 12/25 (0.3") 2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0") . PHL Heat Island factoid 2016-20 = 169 days at 90+ while KMQS/KPTW and East Nantmeal combined 121 days! Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and follow me on https://twitter.com/ChescoWx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6z WXSIM with a NAM/GFS Blend - starting time light snow by around 1pm with S+ by 4pm ending by 7pm Monday eve. with 11" to 14" of snow Sunday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 34. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 27. Wind east-northeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Breezy. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 19. Wind southeast around 11 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Monday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Windy. High 33. Wind chill around 20. Wind east-northeast around 16 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Weenie handbook Chapter 7 Page 611 Section 2 clause b: When all guidance agrees on a solution except for 1 that appears an outlier, remove outlier from group AND remove the most extreme solution on the other end from the group as well to reduce skew In this case adios Euro and remove the ICON from the other side and the truth likely lies in between remaining modeling solutions. Therefore my forecast for Delaware County and along the I-95 Corridor stands at a snowstorm is coming look for a general 8-12" (We can go up from there as needed) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 12Z Nam definitely north. Push not as strong coming out of Canada. Hopefully this is the start of something beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: 12Z Nam definitely north. Push not as strong coming out of Canada. Hopefully this is the start of something beautiful. NAM doesn't phase in the 2nd energy early enough, implies a hair late on the neg tilt structure, stacking, and potential capture. It is around where the 6z eps was. Not a horrible run tho at all. 6-12"/7-14" seems like the general idea among guidance up here right now if u toss the extremes on either side. Very nice storm up here. Could still nudge either way, but I dont hate the NAM. Close to a Bigger storm solution here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 47 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Therefore my forecast for Delaware County and along the I-95 Corridor stands at a snowstorm is coming look for a general 8-12" (We can go up from there as needed) I like your confidence. I'm not sold on 8-12" yet let's get through today. Right now I'd be nervous if I lived in the lehigh valley. Trends with the coastal starting to look pretty Jan 30 2000 esque with the shark cutoff at least on the new nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 My street has been brined, so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I like your confidence. I'm not sold on 8-12" yet let's get through today. Right now I'd be nervous if I lived in the lehigh valley. Trends with the coastal starting to look pretty Jan 30 2000 esque with the shark cutoff at least on the new nam. Seems like we’re near the cutoff with so many storms. It only takes a small change for us to go from 12-18” to 2-4” here with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 ICON has been steady for several runs now. Going to be a big hit better than 6z. Nice capture and phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 SLP doesn't move for 24hrs on the ICON from 15z Mon to 15z Tues....sits and spins at our BM spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Couple of the 1st 12z runs - shows the down side on the NAM of Miller B's for those in the NW burbs.....not saying either of these will verify....but still not baked that is for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not a fan of the RGEM or NAM. Shows the classic EPA Miller B screw zone setting up. Not saying its gonna happen, but much higher possibility now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 RGEM went South...misses the N half of the forum. Guessing the CMC will follow since they run off similar algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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