The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Gefs seem unenthused... Only like 2 or 3 big hitters in there. The rest seem to be thump to rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ukie is suppressed and a disorganized mess like the CMC lol Not a flake through 144hr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z roundup Old GFS - north next New GFS - Moderate snow CMC - Mod to light snow Ukie - south next ICON - A bit north from 0z but solid hit Total buckshot of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Navgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: 12z roundup Old GFS - north next New GFS - Moderate snow CMC - Mod to light snow Ukie - south next ICON - A bit north from 0z but solid hit Total buckshot of solutions Need the Euro to hang tough....no 180 turnaround crap from the 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Navgem That's actually a pretty big signal imo. the navgem is a bad model but it's usually super progressive, the fact it's showing a wound up coastal when others are flat and suppressed is a good sign. What page is that in the weenie handbook @Ralph Wiggum? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie is suppressed and a disorganized mess like the CMC lol Not a flake through 144hr I would hold off on calling the ukie a miss...haven't seen precip panels but through 144 that's a decent low track. Edit: verbatim it's a "miss" but I think the coastal is gearing up to rock us if there was a 150 panel. I think that's a decent run since it's at the end of it's range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: That's actually a pretty big signal imo. the navgem is a bad model but it's usually super progressive, the fact it's showing a wound up coastal is a good sign. What page is that in the weenie handbook @Ralph Wiggum? Page 11 Buckshot model spread and the Navy is a direct hit it's a win 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I would hold off on calling the ukie a miss...haven't seen precip panels but through 144 that's a decent low track. extreme SE folks might get moderate but it's going out to sea at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 As Ji says 12z euro is the biggest model run of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 38 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Welcome to the board! Here are the 2 free sites I use to model watch. I also have a subscription though for the euro and eps. Tropical tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021012612&fh=162 Pivotal weather: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021012612&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Feel free to ask questions whenever! I know I'm a bit down on these threats but I still enjoy tracking them Thank you! I’ll bookmark them! Somehow by staying in my literature & languages niche, I never learned the underpinnings of the science of weather. I did attempt to learn on my own but found it wasn’t easy like learning a language. I needed a teacher. I just discovered the class yesterday. A sad example of my lack of knowledge - I knew cold air is heavier than warm air, but I only learned yesterday it’s called buoyancy:D My goal is to be able to read the posts here and fully understand everything said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Furrawn said: Thank you! I’ll bookmark them! Somehow by staying in my literature & languages niche, I never learned the underpinnings of the science of weather. I did attempt to learn on my own but found it wasn’t easy like learning a language. I needed a teacher. I just discovered the class yesterday. A sad example of my lack of knowledge - I knew cold air is heavier than warm air, but I only learned yesterday it’s called buoyancy:D My goal is to be able to read the posts here and fully understand everything said. I'm 20 years into this hobby and still learning! If you ever have questions about any posts here, definitely feel free to ask. I'll be glad to explain the best I can. It's always good to see new "weenies" in the making 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Euro is going to be a hit incoming. Basically identical to 00z through 126. Edit: through 138 I'd say it still looks identical maybe a tad further south with the coastal. Walloping incoming? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ECM is significantly south unless it can make the move NE tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It's moving slow as balls... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Crushed the MA, what's up with super tight precipitation field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Holy shit, euro crawls up the coast slamming us in hours 168 and 174. Edit: Still ripping at 180 here. Edit 2: finally tapering off at hour 186. .. Can't wait to see the clown maps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Slow mover eventually we get in the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now. Same here....I would be more worried if I lived in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 This entire forum needs this storm. All out blizzard from southern virginia up through maine. Textbook east coast noreaster wow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 ICON NAVGEM ECM blend ftw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Gefs seem unenthused... Only like 2 or 3 big hitters in there. The rest seem to be thump to rain.. And this is the risk we run with Archambault events as the block pulls away. Allows warming and farther N track. She presents this fail scenario nicely in her thesis on NAO fluxes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Only 10 more runs of the euro until verification. What can go wrong! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Need the Euro to hang tough....no 180 turnaround crap from the 0z. Euro doesn't flip in one run...usually baby steps if it is gonna cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 The ECM and new GFS give me the same snow total haha gotta love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro doesn't flip in one run...usually baby steps if it is gonna cave Once upon a time it was that solid, last couple years it flips like flapjacks at the local diner. However it's more solid when it has other models close to on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now. I'm willing to bet that IF guidance is correct in weakening the block and drifting it away from the NAO region, these Southern hits will begin to shift N. This isn't like the past 2 weeks or so with the shred machine under the block. Like I said a few mins ago and as Iceman has noted, the GFS thump to rain idea is a very valid concern attm. Im less worried about a miss S than I am this tracking too far N or developing too close to the coast. I would NOT want to be in the bullseye at 6 days....period. I dont EVER recall a time (not that it hasn't happened) where a bullseye held up until storm time. Whatever happens will happen tho, I'm not losing sleep over it. I do like where we stand attm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: ICON NAVGEM ECM blend ftw Lock it up. We need a DC-BOS KU. ALL of us. Then we can go out for beers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm willing to bet that IF guidance is correct in weakening the block and drifting it away from the NAO region, these Southern hits will begin to shift N. This isn't like the past 2 weeks or so with the shred machine under the block. Like I said a few mins ago and as Iceman has noted, the GFS thump to rain idea is a very valid concern attm. Im less worried about a miss S than I am this tracking too far N or developing too close to the coast. I would NOT want to be in the bullseye at 6 days....period. I dont EVER recall a time (not that it hasn't happened) where a bullseye held up until storm time. Whatever happens will happen tho, I'm not losing sleep over it. I do like where we stand attm. Don't post this in the mid atlantic thread ...they've spiked the football and are doing a full team celebration in the end zone already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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