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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah right. Im pretty sure you've downplayed this from the get-go citing seasonal trends. Im entitled to one off-run meltdown. Its been exhausting since I began tracking this on Jan 15 (go in the obs thread....yes almost 2 weeks watching this). Im starting to suffer from model exhaustion :hug:

I hope my reverse psychology pays off... I've played this one different from the start ;) I can't go getting hyped up now... Though it's hard!

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Just now, The Iceman said:

I hope my reverse psychology pays off... I've played this one different from the start ;) I can't go getting hyped up now... Though it's hard!

I know inside you've been on this. Your posts are evident of the reverse psychology. Keep doing whatever it is you're doing....bring this one home. P.S. nice to see the fly guys take 2 from NJ...even tho they suck still feels good

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After years of having the rug pulled out from with under me in CNJ I think this storm is finally going to deliver! All models are now showing a CCB rotting over I-95. This storm has that classic look that you want for storms that produce in the I-95 corridor. I really think this pans out as 10"+ for most of this subform. I can break my like 4-5 year drought of no double digit snowstorms.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS looks similar to icon. Not quite as intense qpf banding but slower moving tucked solution. Banding will be picked up better by the mesos anyway. I expect some crazy NAM and RGEM runs beginning tomorrow.

The precip shield decays overnight Monday as it occludes 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

4 for 4

Icon

Nam

GFS

CMC

Weenie handbook chapter 4 page 481 section 2....the ICON is a JV model and shall only be grouped with the other JV models for purposes of forming a concensus and not blended with the big boys and/or mesos.

Eta: however, as noted above when showing over 12" snow, it is allowable to be hugged and thrown in the fray if and only if we are under 108 hrs out from onset of precip

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