Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Steve not sure what you are looking at but 5" to 9" between both of those mean runs....nothing bad about that at this time frame IMO Trends Paul.....trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm going to see myself out now lol. Trying to tell myself this is the usual overcompensating /overadjustment we sometimes see when the energy hits the West Coast and maybe it comes back N in 24 hours. Yes, windshield wipers Paul. Just odd and unsettling to see the ens means so drastically diverse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Much further south track of the H5 low and coastal redevelopment that run pretty major sudden jump makes little sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I still find it hard to believe that this storm will miss. NAO and PNA are rising at the moment. The block isn't going to be as strong as it is this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Much further south track of the H5 low and coastal redevelopment that run pretty major sudden jump makes little sense But does it? The UKMET went that route, the JMA is doing that, the NAVGEM is doing that, and the NAM at range is doing that. All the things we always go against and the Euro which has been rock steady jumps over to the JV models which may end up scoring a coup with the CRAS of all models unamped, South, and leading the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But does it? The UKMET went that route, the JMA is doing that, the NAVGEM is doing that, and the NAM at range is doing that. All the things we.always go against and the Euro which has been rock steady jumps over to the JV models which may end up scoring a coup with the CRAS of all models unamped, South, and leading the coup. That’s why I kind of liked when the Euro ran twice. More chance now for jumping off, lol. I think 0z tonight through 0z tomorrow will be telling; models are still getting a handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm going to see myself out now lol. Trying to tell myself this is the usual overcompensating /overadjustment we sometimes see when the energy hits the West Coast and maybe it comes back N in 24 hours. Yes, windshield wipers Paul. Just odd and unsettling to see the ens means so drastically diverse. Ralphy Boy... I don’t know about the ultimate outcome of this storm..... But I DO know that I’m somewhere between painful constipation and severe diarrhea with your back and forth analysis‼️‼️ 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I’m still praying and am ok where I am. I think. Anything plowable makes me happy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MA-EOC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 This may not be a totally bad thing if this storm heads out to sea or fizzles. As a emergency manager with 30 years of experience at the county, state and federal levels these storms are not what we need right now. Our agency is now directly involved with the distribution of the vaccine to first responders and senior citizens in the Mid-Atlantic and NE regions of the US. Our logistical mission includes aircraft and surface transportation along with reserve and national guard units along with state and county assets on a 24/7 basis. The delays this storm will cause will affect the delivery and dosing of thousands of people who need it most. If this thing ends up out to sea it may actually save lives. Lets remember these storms cause serious injury and deaths to older or more vulnerable citizens, neighbors and family members during a normal year. COVID-19 has multiplied the challenges exponentially. Before you hope and pray for such dangerous conditions, please think about those most at risk and those first responders trying their best to serve the public. We receive our briefings from NWS & 2 private services. The private services have been spot-on this winter and have not been impressed by the signals they were seeing early on with this event and have expressed concern with local media and even some NWS offices for hyping this storm based solely on model outputs so far in advance. (Our contract does not allow me to divulge specifics, but both services are not seeing major amounts of snow accumulations in Metro Philly at this point relative to other areas of responsibility that will be more heavily affected). As I have said before - I learn much more here. Although they will answer specific questions on the conference calls or Zoom meetings, they have no interest in teaching or disclosing their methods to their clients (government agencies, utilities, bulk power transmission authorities, fuel transmission lines, airlines, natural gas suppliers, etc.). Some of the folks here are amazing (a few clearly wish-cast) - insights, discussions, explanations are incredibly helpful to me when I’m involved with these briefings. It's hard to believe this is a hobby considering all you guys put in to it. Stay Safe - Stay Healthy 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Primary farther north and east on 0Z. Coming north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Primary farther north and east on 0Z. Coming north a bit More amped and north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM looks very good. Would probably be a decent hit for most of us if extrapolated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, MA-EOC said: This may not be a totally bad thing if this storm heads out to sea or fizzles. As a emergency manager with 30 years of experience at the county, state and federal levels these storms are not what we need right now. Our agency is now directly involved with the distribution of the vaccine to first responders and senior citizens in the Mid-Atlantic and NE regions of the US. Our logistical mission includes aircraft and surface transportation along with reserve and national guard units along with state and county assets on a 24/7 basis. The delays this storm will cause will affect the delivery and dosing of thousands of people who need it most. If this thing ends up out to sea it may actually save lives. Lets remember these storms cause serious injury and deaths to older or more vulnerable citizens, neighbors and family members during a normal year. COVID-19 has multiplied the challenges exponentially. Before you hope and pray for such dangerous conditions, please think about those most at risk and those first responders trying their best to serve the public. We receive our briefings from NWS & 2 private services. The private services have been spot-on this winter and have not been impressed by the signals they were seeing early on with this event and have expressed concern with local media and even some NWS offices for hyping this storm based solely on model outputs so far in advance. (Our contract does not allow me to divulge specifics, but both services are not seeing major amounts of snow accumulations in Metro Philly at this point relative to other areas of responsibility that will be more heavily affected). As I have said before - I learn much more here. Although they will answer specific questions on the conference calls or Zoom meetings, they have no interest in teaching or disclosing their methods to their clients (government agencies, utilities, bulk power transmission authorities, fuel transmission lines, airlines, natural gas suppliers, etc.). Some of the folks here are amazing (a few clearly wish-cast) - insights, discussions, explanations are incredibly helpful to me when I’m involved with these briefings. It's hard to believe this is a hobby considering all you guys put in to it. Stay Safe - Stay Healthy Thank you for all you do and providing a different perspective on all of this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So do the ICON, JMA, NAVGEM, and UKMET apparently Hey the 18z ICON was too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM looked fine IMO but ran out before we could truly tell...edged N a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: He's wrong every time, I trust a 4th grader with random coloring pencils for our area over DT. He's been brutally wrong with every event the last 5 years in this area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 The best news from the NAM? The confluence we have been noting plushies north quite substantially 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: The best news from the NAM? The confluence we have been noting plushies north quite substantially You have to think that's a good sign coming from a meso model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Holy moly 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Icon is a huge hit for the area through 108 just about 10-12"+ for everyone outside of s. Jersey. We may have to send a snowcat to find Paul if it comes true...his place sees like 30 inches if my clown maps are right. Tell ralph to back off the ledge 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Holy moly You're sitting pretty Ant. I hope you're getting hype for this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, hazwoper said: The best news from the NAM? The confluence we have been noting plushies north quite substantially Happens on the RGEM too which has a very similar look to the NAM at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: You're sitting pretty Ant. I hope you're getting hype for this one. Too early to get hyped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Total 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, The Iceman said: You have to think that's a good sign coming from a meso model! I do think the Euro may have done one of those overcorrections we often see when energy comes ashore. Expect it to slowly go back the other way by 12z tomorrow. May not get back to the HECS looks, but I doubt the low just escapes off of VA Beach either. ICON (I know, it sucks) is a beaut. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Imagine what the ICON with kuchera tabulated amounts is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Icon is a huge hit for the area through 108 just about 10-12"+ for everyone outside of s. Jersey. We may have to send a snowcat to find Paul if it comes true...his place sees like 30 inches if my clown maps are right. Tell ralph to back off the ledge Yeah right. Im pretty sure you've downplayed this from the get-go citing seasonal trends. Im entitled to one off-run meltdown. Its been exhausting since I began tracking this on Jan 15 (go in the obs thread....yes almost 2 weeks watching this). Im starting to suffer from model exhaustion 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Weren’t we all just dumping the icon earlier?. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeS127 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 That’s right folks, if you are tracking this storm then you are responsible for countless lives. How dare you be so irresponsible? Don’t you know that the weather affects people? We never NEED a Tornado, or a Hurricane, Or( Insert your natural weather phenomena here) but they happen and no one should feel guilty for actively researching and being involved in these discussions. While I appreciate everything that our Local, State, and Federal governments due to assist us in case of an emergency, it’s ridiculous that you find it necessary to brow beat the people that are active in this forum. There is a wealth of knowledge and understanding that can be taken from the conversations here and we don’t need you to dictate what is appropriate or not. So please, take that nonsense somewhere else. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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