hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Probably. But something to watch. If that piece keeps showing up stronger and keeps affecting the confluence, it will eventually have negative implications. But alas tis the NAM at range (skims the weenie handbook furiously to find...page 871 chapter 69 section 7 clause f) "A storm delayed is a storm denied" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 At hr 84, looks like the primary is dying over NE KY with the coastal taking over around Corolla NC. What happens next?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, JTA66 said: At hr 84, looks like the primary is dying over NE KY with the coastal taking over around Corolla NC. What happens next?? Where is the DGEX when you need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I don't think that piece of confluence is all that bad. It forces the low formation a bit further south around the OBX. Then the storm would crawl up to the delmarva and stall as another piece of energy dives in the backside and pulls it back. Would you rather have a low form at the VA Capes/OBX? Or one that forms at the Delmarva? Based on past experience with Juno, I know what I pick... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2021 Author Share Posted January 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Watch this piece in future runs...if something screws this up that will be the piece. It is diving S and causes the confluence to not only tighten up but nudge S this run. I wonder if there’s a chance that phases in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: "A storm delayed is a storm denied" If we get this too fast, it misses any chance of phasing with that backside vort. Then it's Juno 2.0. I think slower is better here. Too fast and you risk east slippage. Too late and perhaps you risk too amped. But I'll always take my chances with an amped and tucked closed 500 below me with a fresh arctic cold air mass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I wonder if there’s a chance that phases in? I don't think that'll phase in, but this piece.... this is the one that matters IMO. Even if we do have a "too south" solution in the end, this piece helps to slingshot the low up the coast. Then we get sloppy seconds with a matured low. But hey, better than nothing and this slipping east. And if the storm isn't too south? Well then that piece helps to rejuvenate the low off the coast and pivot it back to the coast. That piece is everything in my opinion between a 6-10" storm and an 18-24" storm. I'm still young, but over the years I've grown weary of average storms. My mentality is go big or go home. I'm not the biggest fan of snow, but I love tracking MECS and potential HECS events. Especially when you have models print out incredible amounts, it's dangerous. It's like a drug, the last hit might have been great... the next one you want even better. Perhaps why this is such a mentally exhausting hobby... ' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 No other model has that piece the NAM showed N of Lake Ontario that keeps the confluence and stalled system souther. ICON is getting closer and closer at H5. Almost.all frozen now for SE PA....baby steps on that piece of shiesse. Still spits out a hefty 2-4" frozen SE PA but thay is going to cave soon the more that H5 keeps trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 RGEM at range, use with caution: looks like it has snow entering our area around hr 74 while the NAM was still dry at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I am hugging the 12z Euro and tossing all other future guidance. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 RGEM gives us almost 0 WAA snows but is ramping up the coastal at range. One thing I am taking away from todays runs is we are losing most of the WAA stuff and starting to rely solely on the coastal track. It in essence delays the onset as well. Plenty of time but we are playing with fire wrt that trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Goofus kinda far east with the coastal at 18z 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Goofus kinda far east with the coastal at 18z Yeah, but it still blued on us. Looks like it does a loop-dee-loop off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, JTA66 said: Yeah, but it still blued on us. Looks like it does a loop-dee-loop off the Delmarva. It's so weak going to need to do 3 loopy doops what a trash model 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, but it still blued on us. Looks like it does a loop-dee-loop off the Delmarva. That doesn't verify 95% of the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Well that was craptacular, a wikipedia definition of "meh" run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Weakness is more of an issue than location, but it is still long duration and significant. Seems we have multiple ways to get a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: That doesn't verify 95% of the time Digital snow doesn't verify around here 95% of the time I'm still at the stage hoping not to see any modeling follow crazy uncle south with that whiff at 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Goofus kinda far east with the coastal at 18z Gfs sucks with coastal storms 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Sheared out, south and weak has been the trend all month... Hopefully things get better at 00z but this has seriously been the theme the last 4 weeks. Don't have a good feeling.... Hopefully we at least see some snow our of this and it doesn't look trend to complete whiff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ji bullseye chuck it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs sucks with coastal storms So do the ICON, JMA, NAVGEM, and UKMET apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs sucks Fixed‼️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: Sheared out, south and weak has been the trend all month... Hopefully things get better at 00z but this has seriously been the theme the last 4 weeks. Don't have a good feeling... Damn and I just told everyone on SM to expect 2-3' here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn and I just told everyone on SM to expect 2-3' here. Hold steady‼️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So do the ICON, JMA, NAVGEM, and UKMET apparently Jma and Navgem are hits but yes they do . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Jma and Navgem are hits but yes they do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 If the Navy is bad with coastal's what's the point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 New GFS is also east with the coastal it luvs NYC Old GFS luvs DC Something in between say.......Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 A little more concerning and serious the GEFS are east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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