MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Sounds good. Euro op in its wheelhouse right now. When do you feel it is wise to start putting more weight in the op and phase out the ens for forecasting this one? Euro is also too close for us because itd a broad low pressure. Need it to tighten up. Still some timing differences between the Euro and the other models. Euro has this starting mostly on Monday while others have it on Sunday. Op runs should be used 2-3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is also too close for us because itd a broad low pressure. Need it to tighten up. Still some timing differences between the Euro and the other models. Euro has this starting mostly on Monday while others have it on Sunday. Op runs should be used 2-3 days out EPS looked good...just took a peek. Lost the Lancaster 993mb low from 18z so tightening up in clustering near our benchmark spot off the DelMarVa. Still curious why the subsidence zone or area with lighter total qpf amounts continue to be shown in SE PA? That has been showing up consistently for the past 36 hrs of runs. Dry slot?? Or some other atmospheric divergence thingy going on as the storm occludes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6z gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This storm will likely be painful on my street.. getting the kitchen sink while 20 miles away they are digging out of 12-18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6Z EPS are really nice. Deform band hangs over SE PA. Storm tucked into the benchmark. The means is slowly drifting that snow max that some guidance has over NYC down more and more to the SW closer to parts of PA now. Snowfall mean here was around 8". Suffice to say the 'general' idea this run is a 6-12"er. We take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 6Z EPS are really nice. Deform band hangs over SE PA. Storm tucked into the benchmark. The means is slowly drifting that snow max that some guidance has over NYC down more and more to the SW closer to parts of PA now. Snowfall mean here was around 8". Suffice to say the 'general' idea this run is a 6-12"er. We take. 6-12 is a good bet for alot of people which is awesome. Whoever is in the banding will get more. Pattern looks good after the cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 6-12 is a good bet for alot of people which is awesome. Whoever is in the banding will get more. Pattern looks good after the cutter Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better? Miller Bs tend to slip east as we get closer. Philly usually does a little worse than my area in NYC with these systems but I think we will all do well. Hopefully the models start consolidating the low more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better? I hope the euro trends towards the gfs. Any more ticks north and this one is probably worse than the December storm here. Already very close with the mix line in my backyard. Verbatim the 00z euro is actually a lot like the December storm with the ccb ripping in central pa. We definitely want to see some ticks east if we don't want to get dry slotted. Today's a big day imo we ll have a much better idea whether this will be just an okay storm like December or something special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I hope the euro trends towards the gfs. Any more ticks north and this one is probably worse than the December storm here. Already very close with the mix line in my backyard. Verbatim the 00z euro is actually a lot like the December storm with the ccb ripping in central pa. We definitely want to see some ticks east if we don't want to get dry slotted. Today's a big day imo we ll have a much better idea whether this will be just an okay storm like December or something special. 6z eps alot better. Gotta smell the rain for the best snows. Eps is also ticking that snow max SW from NYC. Clustering over our BM spot. I think we start to see the windshield wiper effect now. Everything lining up for a SECS/MECS west of the Del River at very worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Miller Bs tend to slip east as we get closer. Philly usually does a little worse than my area in NYC with these systems but I think we will all do well. Hopefully the models start consolidating the low more. NYC is in such a good spot for Miller B storms, anything south of Bucks County - Philadelphia County Pa misses out on intensification. And there is always the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: NYC is in such a good spot for Miller B storms, anything south of Bucks County - Philadelphia County Pa misses out on intensification. And there is always the dryslot. I rather be in SNE when it comes to Miller Bs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Looks like a solid storm by all accounts. Pattern shaping up okay too. Still some time left but its encouraging. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS finally gets in line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 OH BOY! 12Z GFS retrogrades the coastal on monday and we puke snow in the CCB 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Gfs doesn't just get in line, it stalls the storm right off the cape may coast. Don't believe other models are doing that. Verbatim philly up to the turnpike change over for a time but it may be over doing the low level warmth. I'd expect a change to pingers though for a time probably even up to red sky. Still great run!! Almost 48 hours straight of precip! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This is good. Maybe a morning shot and beer... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 as Ralph would say....we take. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Like this frame, call me a weenie, but under that heavy of precip, there's no way it's going to be plain rain up to the turnpike. GFS is definitely underplaying the CAD this far out. Maybe a mix but I bet the intensity keeps the area frozen save for shore areas.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 15-18" all across SE PA with the 18-21" weenie stripe over paul's house. That sure is a pretty map... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Gfs doesn't just get in line, it stalls the storm right off the cape may coast. Don't believe other models are doing that. Verbatim philly up to the turnpike change over for a time but it may be over doing the low level warmth. I'd expect a change to pingers though for a time probably even up to red sky. Still great run!! Almost 48 hours straight of precip! My only complaint is 36hrs of snow with this track should do better than 12-18" snow. PD2 was that long a storm and when it was done I felt the storm was slow and boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Did we just get NAMed by the GFS? Is that a thing in 2021? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: My only complaint is 36hrs of snow with this track should do better than 12-15" snow. PD2 was that long a storm and when it was done I felt the storm was slow and boring. The pink and dark blue near us is 15" - 21"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The Stroudsburgh snow hole is suspect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 CMC turns the coast ( NYC and Philly) to sleet but then changes quickly back to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: The pink and dark blue near us is 15" - 21"... PD2 was 2' in my yard and the most boring HECS of my life. Hope we get some puking snow all I'm saying 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: CMC turns the coast ( NYC and Philly) to sleet but then changes quickly back to heavy snow. Maps? Its not out on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Maps? Its not out on tidbits. Its out on the Canadian site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ukie is further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now