jimmosk Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Paragraphs would make this an easier read. For VWF: The models all show good qpf in Philly and surroundings. The differential in the snow amounts is mostly differences in how much warm nose pushes in and hence how much mixing occurs. My exp is that given the cold air that's been in place, and the high precip rates expected due to the rapid deepening low, you'll get the typical evap cooling effect where the heavy rates keep the column at freezing so long as precip is sufficiently robust. The lull period tnght tmrw am is where the risk is as has been stated. Heaviest rates, 1-2" hr are really only progged for a short time on any of the models, and it's right after precip ramps back up. Some models show that period being sleet for many of us; that cuts the totals. Others keep it all snow. That will be the difference for the corridor though btwn a 6-8-12-15 storm total. Remember that if we got 2" thundersnow type rates for several hours, we'd be talking plural feet in the corridor, not 10ish inches over 3 days. *Most* of this event is clearly NOT heavy snow. So, don't panic if things don't work out exactly as the models project. Expect that they won't be perfect. One thing they all show is that this system is with us for awhile and should produce some snow most of that time. By Tuesday pm, we will probably add up to what this forum expects, but, expect a lot of panic and concern from people here tonight and Monday, beyond the lull, just bc I think people are expecting a major 2"+ hr rate situation and again, outside a few hour window, this is a low and slow burn. I also think based on what I'm seeing live that the models may be underdoing the overrunning totals a bit, and that may also help us get to expected totals. We're going to be fine, folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, jimmosk said: For VWF: Sorry guys, I wrote that on my phone. I promise I know better haha. Thanks Jim for formatting. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I think Roger Smith is trolling us....can't be certain. He is pretty well-respected but those numbers seems astronomically absurd. Even Kuchera would chuckle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Every single msm weatherman is following the NAM. Already down to 7 inches. So disappointing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think Roger Smith is trolling us....can't be certain. He is pretty well-respected but those numbers seems astronomically absurd. Even Kuchera would chuckle. Well, I certainly took the bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, jimmosk said: For VWF 9 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I really dig the VWF acronym. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I still can’t get over the difference between the GFS and NAM right now this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Thanks for the incite very helpful I see what you did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think Roger Smith is trolling us....can't be certain. He is pretty well-respected but those numbers seems astronomically absurd. Even Kuchera would chuckle. I don’t think he is... Seems to be a big waste of time for a respected 71 year old Canadian weather hobbyist‼️ I suspect he’s more of an old-time synopstician, like Larry Cosgrove, who looks at more than just straight model analysis⁉️‼️ I appreciate his time and thoughts here, as I do with others sharing their views‼️ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Were there any changes on the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Wish I hadn't wondered south to the MA side and began accidentally reading comments how the NAM nailed this....yep I didn't hear that nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Were there any changes on the 18z Euro? They say it's a tick NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro crushes city, it did not tick NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Either the NAM is out to lunch or this is the greatest fail by the euro of all time. This is snowiest run yet for city I believe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 44 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: I don’t think he is... Seems to be a big waste of time for a respected 71 year old Canadian weather hobbyist‼️ I suspect he’s more of an old-time synopstician, like Larry Cosgrove, who looks at more than just straight model analysis⁉️‼️ I appreciate his time and thoughts here, as I do with others sharing their views‼️ Yeah, definitely. All from other forums are welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro crushes city, it did not tick NE Sure did compare 12z for Berks, further west of them they just fell off the cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So basically it’s every model now against the NAM and other mesos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Sure did compare 12z for Berks, further west of them they just fell off the cliff True my bad. It’s relative, the low was stronger than 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 So basically it’s every model now against the NAM and other mesos?Not even other mesos. Just the NAM and HRRR really . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: True my bad. It’s relative, the low was stronger than 12z run Lucky this region is still good if you kept expectations in the 12-18" zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro crushes city, it did not tick NE For the love of God charge your battery!! And a true weenie has at least 2 spare charged batteries on hand at all times in case of a outage..... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 NAM has to be wrong this isn’t possible this close to a storm right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDevs29 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: That’s a much different result from the last run, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Londoncalling457 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Are we still thinking a period of light precipitation/no precip in the morning? If so, what time frame are y’all thinking for that. I have to go in to work at 6 and am wondering what time I’ll need to cut out before the blast comes (if it comes, I guess). I’m 30 miles nw of Philly btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That weird extension down through DE into the eastern shore is interesting. Would be awesome if it happened. Right over my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 ^ nice euro still had 12hrs to go from the first map and ends still plenty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westielover Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just pushed 5” of lighter powder snow from the patio, 8 miles northeast of Lancaster. Maybe an inch an hour now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Mt Holly may need a new snow map! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What’s that short term meso model New England posters use a lot I forget what it’s called. Ugh it’s escaping me. Weatherfella loves it haha, curious what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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