RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Ukie is coming in BIG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Uncle is 12-16" with no north move Tracks like the Canadians but less juice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 4:42 AM, zenmsav6810 said: Lol I've seen we've digressed into talking about '58 here. Just take your 16" inches and be happy. .... clearly too many weenies for breakfast. Nothing about this says Hecs, this is modeled as a reasonable Mecs. I dont think the low is deep enough. No wonder these storms always fall short of expectations when the expectations rise of the granddaddy of all PA blizzards-- what do you expect. I think the Para shows a nice solution however I think the gradient will be further south and tighter. Realistically there will be some dry slotting and probably a crust of sleet at some point. Somebody will probably see 20 to 22" out of this but you'd have to be color blind to see 50" on any of these maps!! Expand Welp... There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs. A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that. The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals. Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16. I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 DT's last call is out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Since I'm in the 15"+ area I think it's very accurate and trustworthy.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 5:13 AM, Birds~69 said: Since I'm in the 15"+ area I think it's very accurate and trustworthy.... Expand Dave made a little bend in his oval to include you, send a thank you card 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 5:15 AM, RedSky said: Dave made a little bend in his oval to include you, send a thank you card Expand Believe me I noticed that little bend (weenie) and it's much appreciated.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Philly in a bit of trouble on the 0z Euro. N&W burbs are still fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Spins along the coast of Atlantic City for 18 hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:08 AM, RedSky said: Spins along the coast of Atlantic City for 18 hours! Expand Yeah, you really can't go wrong with that...just keeps spinning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Comprehensive area of 12-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:11 AM, RedSky said: Comprehensive area of 12-20" Expand Does I-95 mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:12 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Does I-95 mix? Expand As expected yes most of it S&E of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:15 AM, RedSky said: As expected yes most of it S&E of I95 Expand It wasn’t expected, we were all snow on nearly all models till recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:16 AM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: It wasn’t expected, we were all snow on nearly all models till recently. Expand Strong storms hugging the coast almost always mix even in SEPA for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:25 AM, RedSky said: Strong storms hugging the coast almost always mix even in SEPA for a time Expand I didn’t expect this to be a hugger thorough. But yeah I’d like an all snow event for once, it will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:27 AM, RedSky said: Expand Interesting to see a more north to south cutoff on the jackpot zone emerging compared to the Northeasterly cutoff earlier. Makes sense with a Miller B to see this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:27 AM, RedSky said: Expand Solid run....PHL itself has a chance at a noteworthy accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:38 AM, NJHurricane said: Solid run....PHL itself has a chance at a noteworthy accumulation. Expand More “historic” (top 20?) than “noteworthy”‼️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Was originally thinking precip rolls into the area 2-4pm tomorrow but looking at radar perhaps 12-2pm? I guess it depends on how much virga. Either way I think we're all set and let everything come together for a 1'+ storm for many. Feel like I've been tracking this for 2yrs... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 6:50 AM, Birds~69 said: Was originally thinking precip rolls into the area 2-4pm tomorrow but looking at radar perhaps 12-2pm? I guess it depends on how much virga. Either way I think we're all set and let everything come together for a 1'+ storm for many. Feel like I've been tracking this for 2yrs... Expand Final call for our area 8-16". Modest storm for us a 1-in-5 year event HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 8:09 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Final call for our area 8-16". Modest storm for us a 1-in-5 year event HERE. Expand Feel better about NAM? Lol I told you man I had seen this model misplace qpf my entire life basically i knew it was coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 9:51 AM, Wentzadelphia said: Feel better about NAM? Lol I told you man I had seen this model misplace qpf my entire life basically i knew it was coming Expand Lol yeah NAMs looking better. So which model(s) will guide your chase? Multiple choices. 50-75 miles NW, N, or NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 10:26 AM, KamuSnow said: Lol yeah NAMs looking better. So which model(s) will guide your chase? Multiple choices. 50-75 miles NW, N, or NNE. Expand Think Allentown best bet for me. Not that far really and is a better position if it forms a few ticks east than progged and they’re fine if it’s west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 5:03 AM, NJHurricane said: Welp... There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs. A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that. The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals. Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16. I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location. Expand It is amazing how it seems harder for us to get run of the mill 3-6” type snowstorm than it is to get 1-2 feet types 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/31/2021 at 3:41 AM, Newman said: Just loop the past 3 runs of both the NAM and RGEM at 500mb. I'm not posting the GIF's but: 1.) The RGEM is becoming LESS amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough. 2.) The NAM is becoming MORE amplified with the trough. Not a lot, but enough. Middle ground consensus? It was clear the RGEM shifted NE. It was also clear the NAM came back west (and maybe could have even more). Jackpot is gonna be east of where the RGEM has it, west of where the NAM has it. Middle ground for everyone. Everyone wins. Goodnight Expand Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I can't go back to sleep, I think I'm gonna head back home today considering class is almost guaranteed to move virtual for Monday/Tuesday. I think Lanco will get 12+, But Berks and home has increasing chances of this being 20+" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig82 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NWS up to 18-24" here in Moore Township, Northampton County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ej257 snow lover Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 How many hours of virga do we see? Mt Holly said on their fb page start time for allentown was around 6pm. Storm is already on top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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