Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 30, 2021 Author Share Posted January 30, 2021 I posted 10-18” for the Lehigh Valley on my page. I don’t feel comfortable narrowing that given how much we still don’t know about how this storm will evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: Weather World says meh 6-10" in SEPA in the forecast out 2 hours ago. A bit conservative. Not necessarily. The high res and proprietary guidance today has been a bit all over the map. Several typically good short range models are progging the axis being more along the apps with PHL at 6-10. Of course several globals clearly show more. Personally, I'd have called 8-12" for the moment in CC PHL, because it's less jarring for the public to shift up or down a peg from that range. No point in forecasting max possible amount just yet, sets up a lot of room to bust. Too many things have to go right for 12-18. We can't miss the overrunning, fgen needs to be good, transfer of low has to be good. 6-10 is nothing to sneeze at, and model variability is the reason it is useful to wait to go full tilt until I'd say the 00z runs tonight. This IS philly after all. If all the models are honking together then you raise the bar. 12-18 is your best case for phl, 5-8 is your worst case....8-12 is a safe middle. They say fortune favors the bold, perhaps that explains my misfortune. I am genuinely curious right now to see if winds and visibilities end up hitting blizzard criteria somewhere in the mt holly forecast area. Seems possible. Edit: I like the epawa map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Newman said: The low barely moves. I mean maybe a mile or 2 in 12 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: Mount Holy is going all out at 12-18" that is interesting also. I like 10-15" myself as a personal guess. All the "Prob-Snow" maps the NWS makes uses those set numerical ranges, so they have no control over it... that map can be missleading though since they actually have 12 inches forecast for both Philly and ABE, yet the interpolation on their snowfall maps shows Allentown at 8-12. Overall that map seems reasonable... I am surprised they put Philly in the 12-18 bin so early, but it is right at 12 inches forecast, so could just as easily say 8-12. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 One other factor that will limit accumulation is timing, the majority of these long duration storms rarely verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: The low barely moves. I mean maybe a mile or 2 in 12 hrs We know you have to go conservative with these storms because 90% of the time the ground truth is the low end of forecast/guidance amounts. The thing I find intriguing is the amount of time this storm is going to hang out vs our typical steady movers. I would think the odds would be better of hitting high end guidance with this one, time will tell. I have only seen 3 storms in my lifetime hit the magical 20" number and the only way you get there is a slow crawl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: We know you have to go conservative with these storms because 90% of the time the ground truth is the low end of forecast/guidance amounts. The thing I find intriguing is the amount of time this storm is going to hang out vs our typical steady movers. I would think the odds would be better of hitting high end guidance with this one, time will tell. I have only seen 3 storms in my lifetime hit the magical 20" number and the only way you get there is a slow crawl. I've seen a handfull of these forecasted stallers never stall and just keep moving NE. Lets hope the capture and stall isn't a mirage. Monday AM is going to be grueling for many of us. Might need some sedatives....or a horse tranquilizer. Not sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 42 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Imo I think the nam may have picked up on a last minute trend, and we may see the other models follow suite. Huge nw trend like the December storm into central pa didn't really make a ton of sense with a miller B. I did think it'd come NE a bit come game time but not nearly to that level. I mean it's just so far outside of all other guidance, you really have to toss for now. So with you thinking there will be a classic miller b late NE adjustment.....and the fact the bullseye on the rgem is just to our southwest.....does that mean....??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So with you thinking there will be a classic miller b late NE adjustment.....and the fact the bullseye on the rgem is just to our southwest.....does that mean....??? Glad you read between the lines But seriously, I really, really like where we both sit right now. 12-18" with possibly more, I just wish it was Sunday afternoon, not Saturday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 At 48 hrs, the GFS has the low right off OCMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS totals: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, Newman said: Sorta what I am thinking occurs with snow totals except move the oranges further east.., 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 So what we are seeing in these maps is the heavy banding pretty much showing up in the same general locations. Maybe a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 From Roger Smith’s lips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 46 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: RGEM and to a lesser extent GFS have retrograde loop of coastal, which would explain apparently huge snowfall predictions. Not quite buying that totally but factoring it into second call which follows first call (which was 17-23 widespread, 25-30 local). DCA 16.5 IAD 20.5 BWI 24.5 nMD/sePA local 30-35 15" snow line n/c DE to near Annapolis to Quantico mixing zone mainly from that contour to Ocaen City-Richmond (5" snowfalls). Blizzard-like storm for many areas of c, ne MD and e PA, s/c NJ Winds not being discussed much but with the retrograde loop, gusts to 70 mph quite possible in a zone from n/c DE to central Chesapeake, probably 35-45 cities along I-95. Just a relatively brief interval of those winds, associated with retrograde phase mid-day Monday. Further afield, predicting 30" PHL, 20" NYC, 12" BDR, 14" BOS, only a medium sized snowfall for much of inland New England as they get a weaker phase of the evolution. Max snowfall from storm somewhere like Pottstown PA 36" Let’s not just dismiss this out of hand, I for one am willing to hear him out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Weather World says meh 6-10" in SEPA in the forecast out 2 hours ago. A bit conservative. IDK why but for me, your comment really highlights just how awesome this storm could be. It’s so wonderful that 6-10” is “conservative.” We've been having such rotten winters lately that this storm feels like a dream. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, MacChump said: Let’s not just dismiss this out of hand, I for one am willing to hear him out Roger isn't exactly some random weenie. His words carry some weight even though he's only an amateur imo he knows his shit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Strange we got Roger Smithed but still waiting on being NAM'd 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Excellent video by Steve DiMartino, especially his analogy of understanding and use of models @6:50 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Strange we got Roger Smithed but still waiting on being NAM'd We ride tonight on the 0z nam. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Clearly a high variance situation in the model suite, but somebody's bound to get 24-36 inch amounts, can't see how se PA is not the most likely place given the factors in play. But sure it could be somewhere else. Looks like a sure 12-18 inch outcome at a minimum, if I were more of a stakeholder I might back down to 18-24 from what I actually think will happen. Good luck -- it all depends on that coastal stall retrograde loop aspect, best location for PHL to max is probably central DE, a bit further south may shift the heaviest snow to n DE and ne MD (which are still going to do very well). Weak or absent coastal loop still makes 12-18 plausible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Anyone got the top 30 phl airport storm totals..feels like phl may get a 12 banger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Just 'cause...the HDRPS: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Animal said: Anyone got the top 30 phl airport storm totals..feels like phl may get a 12 banger. Top 50 for ya https://jcweather.com/50snowstorms.php I think a top 10 storm is definitely plausible. 16.8" would get them there and if banding sets up correctly, could be in reach. These long duration storms definitely have the potential to overperform. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Any guess on a possible start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18z euro just laying down the smack down on northwest of 95. Let’s go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, jrodd321 said: 18z euro just laying down the smack down on northwest of 95. Let’s go. Good to see ya here Jrodd! Hope all is well with you buddy. Things seem to be getting better and better up to game time, all the makings of a classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Does anyone have a link to a website that shows a high temperature verification map for today? Ideally something that compares actuals to the statistical and dynamical guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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